Venezuela Gov't, Opposition to Sign Deal

yahoo.com news ^ | May 27, 2003 | AP

[Cincinatus' Wife]

CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela's government and opposition will sign an agreement on Thursday on a plan to hold a referendum on President Hugo Chavez's rule, the chief mediator of negotiations announced Tuesday.

The agreement, brokered by the Organization of American States, ends six months of formal talks between the two sides aimed at restoring stability to Venezuela. It also addresses possible votes on the terms of other elected officials.

The accord prohibits any amendments to election laws while authorities prepare for balloting. It also urges Congress to swiftly name election authorities.

"I hope the agreement will create a better climate than the one we have in the country today," said OAS Secretary-General Cesar Gaviria, the mediator. "I am convinced the agreement reached by the government and opposition is the solution we have been seeking."

Diplomats from six countries - the United States, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Spain and Portugal - that helped in talks will be present at the signing ceremony, Gaviria said.

The negotiations began in November, seven months after a coup that briefly toppled Chavez and exposed Venezuela's deep divisions over the former paratrooper's leftist economic policies and irreverent rhetoric.

Chavez's first election in 1998 ended the 40-year stronghold of two traditional parties accused of squandering Venezuela's vast oil wealth and leaving 80 percent of the population in poverty. He then pushed through a new constitution that paved the way for his own re-election in 2000 and elections that gave his allies control of Congress.

Chavez said he was leading "social revolution" against corruption and inequality. Adversaries - business leaders, labor unions and the two traditional parties - accused him of grabbing power and ruining the economy with leftist policies.

Months of unrest that followed the coup culminated in two-month strike to force Chavez's resignation. The strike collapsed in February, succeeding only in devastating the economy and costing Venezuela $6 billion. The economy shrank 29 percent in the first three months of 2003.

Venezuela's leaderless and demoralized opposition is now trying to organize a referendum to remove Chavez from office. The constitution would allow one in August, the midpoint in his six-year term. The next scheduled elections are in 2006.

Such referendums are also allowed for other elected officials. Chavez supporters are trying to organize votes against several legislators who defected from the ruling coalition, eroding the government's congressional majority to a handful of lawmakers.

Recent polls suggest Chavez's approval ratings range from 30 to 40 percent. To remove Chavez, the opposition must garner more votes than Chavez did in the last election: more than 3.7 million, or almost 60 percent.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Hugo Chavez - Venezuela

[MattinNJ]

I don't believe he would agree to this unless the outcome was pre-determined. Either that, or he's using it to get his opponents out in the open-it's an old Castro trick and one that worked well for Chavez during the "coup".

[marron]

I agree, we are about to witness tragedy as theater. The process will be rigged, it will trigger a popular uprising, and maybe a coup attempt, which will expose his opponents within the military, and he will be able to purge them.

And it will be the last chance.

So, whatever happens, they have to make it good. They will get one shot and then its over, for better or worse. They have to make it count. We can't help them, not publicly, they have to do this themselves.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[Sparta]

It's looking game, set, match in Venezuela for those who love freedom. I too am not optomistic about the results.

[MattinNJ]

Agreed.

I can't understand why we are not all over this. Venezuela is one of our leading suppliers of oil and is therefore in our national interest. As for justification, this fits squarely (but not literally as some on FR believe is required) with the intent of the Monroe Doctrine.

I remember a comical thread about how two Miami based DJ's got through on a prank call to Chavez a few months back. They played snippets of Castro and Chavez thought he was really talking to Castro himself. It took a while for him realize that it was a joke. Not only is he not the sharpest tool in the shed, but his security is obviously lacking also. One covert operation team should be able to take him out.

Sparta, this would also be the perfect opportunity for the hypothetical mercenary outfit we were discussing (sorry I din't get back to you earlier-holiday). If they made arrangements with the opposition to take out Chavez for 10% of the oil revenue for a year (both sides would likely jump on the offer) Chavez would be taking a dirt nap in the very near future.

[Nateman]

   Clinton proved beyond a shadow of a doubt how many people can be fooled even in this country with its long tradition of freedom.If one can imagine what would have happened had the Clinton's been able to rewrite the constitution the way they wanted to , you have an idea of what has happened in Venezuela. About the only thing that can save Venezuela from a fate like Cuba's is a few well placed bullets in a few Castro-like heads.