Posted on 05/12/2003 12:04:43 PM PDT by knighthawk
As reality emerges from the fog of war, France is counting the cost of Jacques Chirac's disastrous attempt to defy Washington over Iraq and create an alternative power center to the United States.
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"There is a broad recognition that he went much too far," a leading French industrialist told me. "The political and business elites are beginning to realize there is a high price to pay for all this posturing.
"And for what?" he harumphed.
Just one year ago, Chirac won the presidential election with 82 percent of the vote. In the bruising run- up to the Iraq war, he remained France's chevalier blanc, with ratings in the high-70s. Now, in the sober light of day, his ratings have dropped down to the low 50s.
Chirac set himself up as leader of what his detractors describe as the "Axis of Weasels" (along with the Germans and Russians), offering Paris as the coalescent point for the powerful anti-war, anti-American sentiment that was running in Europe and, indeed, much of the rest of the world.
Buoyed by the huge domestic popularity of his message, Chirac must have drawn satisfaction from the eve-of-war polls which showed that not only did an overwhelming majority oppose the war but that fully one-third of French opinion actually hoped for a Saddam victory.
There can be little doubt, however, at his dismay when, in the face of the American onslaught, the regime of Saddam Hussein collapsed almost as completely as the French army when confronted with invading Germans.
The specter of la gloire France, always an aspiration rather than a reality, suddenly appeared as distant as ever, leaving the principal occupant of the Elysee Palace to ponder the realities of global power politics, and his reduced place in it.
In Washington, the word from the White House was that there were no plans to invite Chirac to the Bush ranch any time soon. But worse news was awaiting him closer to home: The French economy is going backward, with growth dipping into the red at minus 0.1 percent, its lowest point in more than a decade. And there is no sign of an early recovery. French consumers have stopped spending and business confidence is at an all-time low.
Nor is it likely that exports of the new Beaujolais or the summer tourist trade will provide any quick relief. The snub that Chirac delivered to Washington is being reciprocated in spades. American importers are spurning French suppliers and tourists are striking Paris off their itineraries. Just ask the five-star hotel managers, who are reporting occupancy rates as low as one-third.
"There is now a widespread feeling that there were excesses in Chirac's position and that we are going to pay the price for that," one prominent Paris lawyer told me. "The French are waking up from the euphoria they felt about standing up to the Americans and leading a movement that was popular throughout much of Europe."
Even now, many people in France appear unaware of the depth and breadth of American disenchantment with the position of their president. Nor are they aware just why they have been singled out for blame.
Even without the answers, they know there is trouble ahead.
They see it in the economic woes and sense that the Americans will obstruct French diplomatic and economic activities wherever and whenever they can.
They suspect that Washington will veto any role for France in the reconstruction of Iraq and they are concerned that it will attempt to marginalize the French voice in international political forums.
Not least, they fear the domestic social consequences of Chirac's anti-Americanism, which has accelerated and emboldened the radicalization of France's substantial Muslim population that is, among others, providing the engine for virulent anti-Israel, anti-Semitic sentiment.
Despite the economic numbers, growing unemployment, industrial moodiness, the grim diplomatic outlook, the heightened sense of unease over his international grandstanding and his own manifest shortcomings, Chirac demonstrated that he has chutzpa.
Earlier this month, he pushed ahead with plans to establish a European rapid-reaction force (so that it can boldly decide to do nothing, according to one anti- Chiracquien). French bureaucrats insist it is intended to complement NATO, but a more realistic view is that is aimed at challenging the transatlantic military alliance.
Like his vision of la gloire France, Chirac's European military project, which has the backing of a rudderless Germany and those two other Great Powers, Belgium and Luxembourg, is but a mirage. The Europeans are unable to mount a peace-keeping operation for the Balkans, let alone provide a counterweight to the Americans on the world stage.
America's military budget far exceeds that of all of Europe combined, and any suggestion of competition from Europe, even including Luxembourg, will not cause hearts to beat faster or candles to burn later than usual in the Pentagon night.
Tony Blair, who suffered at home for his bullish pro- American stance on Iraq, was conspicuously not invited to the meeting of the "Big Four" in Brussels to discuss the European military project (although Chirac did mark Blair's 50th birthday last week with a gift of fine French wines).
For his part, Blair appears anxious to move on, to let bygones be bygones and return to the business of building the European Union. He is "not really interested in talk about punishing countries," he says grandly, while acknowledging that "there is an issue that we have to resolve here between America and Europe and within Europe about Europe's attitude toward the transatlantic alliance." But not at the expense of Britain's "special relationship" with Washington.
Blair refuses to contemplate what he regards as the "dangerous and destabilizing" notion of a Europe that "sets itself up in opposition to America." To which Chirac exploded with fury at Blair's audacity in advocating a "unipolar world... Quite naturally, a multipolar world is being created, whether one likes it or not. It's inevitable.
"Relations between the European Union and the United States will have to be a partnership between equals."
Maybe. But, then again, maybe not. What is certain is that there is plenty of scope for French mischief in the four years that remain of Chirac's tenure. Not least in the Middle East, where Chirac is intent on leaving his imprimatur.
If people want on or off this list, please let me know.
That's not chutzpa, that's stupidity.
LOL
What it doesn't mention is the special circumstance: the Left in France split its vote so many times in the first round that Chirac's only opponent in the final election was LePen.
That would be like Bob Dole running against David Duke.
Are there actually that many Muslims in France or just that many morons.
When the French and other countries begin to realize that in America we have 5% of the popultation and 25% of the worlds industrial production. Catch up to that and you get close to your own sense of granduer. You have a long way to go not because we hold you down, but because you hold yourself down.
What a GREAT line!!!
Chirac has done that, not Washington!!!!
Not least, they fear the domestic social consequences of Chirac's anti-Americanism, which has accelerated and emboldened the radicalization of France's substantial Muslim population that is, among others, providing the engine for virulent anti-Israel, anti-Semitic sentiment.
Good luck Jacques, you've sure made a mess of things.
Economic output NOT industrial production, that's moved to China and elsewhere.
Weasels, weasels....now where did I hear that first?? Hmmm....
The terms are not mutually exclusive. Idiots can have a lot of nerve.
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