Posted on 03/19/2003 12:21:18 PM PST by LdSentinal
Republican hopes of picking up a Senate seat in North Dakota next year are riding on one man: former Gov. Ed Schafer.
The Sioux State's Republicans readily admit that the popular two-term ex-governor represents their last, best hope of defeating Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) and cracking a surprisingly tough nut -- the all-Democratic congressional delegation that represents this predominantly Republican state.
Schafer, who has returned to the private sector since leaving the governor's mansion four years ago, told The Hill he was not interested in returning to public life. But he did not slam the door shut.
"In this business, you never say never," Schafer said in a recent telephone interview,. "But I've got a focus on the private sector now . . . At this point, I just don't see it. I suppose there's always between a zero and a one percent chance. [But] I don't need to have senator on my resume to be complete in life."
However, President Bush hopes to change Schafer's mind, as he did several other reluctant candidates last year. He invited his fellow governor to a White House Christmas party last year, where he addressed him as "Senator," a name Bush said "has a nice ring to it," Schafer recalled. He then asked Schafer to discuss his future plans with him before making any final decisions on a Senate bid.
Prior to their meeting, Bush's political adviser, Karl Rove, called Schafer to soften him up. "It wasn't a super hard sale, but he made the pitch," Schafer recounted. As of January, he had not spoken with Rove since, he said.
The GOP's efforts to recruit Schafer have been backed up by state party officials and thousands of local politicos and grass roots activists, who are literally begging the wealthy Bismarck businessman to change his mind.
"Our focus is now and will continue to be Ed Schafer running for Senate," said Jason Stverak, a spokesman for the North Dakota Republican Party. "We're just offering the positive encouragement of the state party and thousands of other Republicans across the state."
If Schafer doesn't run, Republicans have virtually nowhere to turn. Dale Brown, a North Dakota native and former basketball coach at Louisiana State University, has been mentioned as a possible candidate, but he already passed up a chance to run against Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) last year.
Duane Sand, a former Navy officer who lost to Sen. Kent Conrad (D) in 2000, and Rick Clayburgh, the state's tax commissioner who lost to Pomeroy in 2002, have also been mentioned as possible candidates. Neither has said he will run, and would be considered long shots in a race against the popular Dorgan.
Schafer said he has spoken with several state lawmakers who are interested in making the race. But they are waiting until Schafer takes a Shermanesque stance on whether he will run.
But even Schafer admits he is the GOP's best hope of breaking the Democrats' inconceivable grip on the state's federal offices.
"I am the one that currently has the name recognition and the approval rating to be competitive," he said. "Again, all of that means nothing in a particular race in a given time. On the outset, I'm probably the most likely person to defeat [Dorgan]. On the other hand, I'm firmly convinced that there are other candidates that can do the same."
Democrats disagree. They contend no one -- including Schafer -- can unlock the mystery that has eluded Republicans for so many years now.
At this point, Dorgan is indeed heavily favored to win reelection "Certainly the race would be more complicated with Gov. Schafer in it, but the fact is he has a lot to weigh in his decision to take on such a popular incumbent," said Brad Woodhouse, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. He cited a poll conducted by the Chamber of Commerce showing that 78 percent of the respondents approved of the job Dorgan is doing, a number Woodhouse called "unprecedented."
As the state's lone congressman for 12 years, Dorgan easily won six statewide elections before winning his first Senate term in 1992 with 59 percent of the vote. That figure shot up to 63 percent 1998. In two-and-a-half decades in office, the former state tax commissioner has never come close to the 55 percent mark that political handicappers equate with vulnerability.
Still, Republicans are holding out hope that Schafer will help them separate North Dakota from the two other states in the country that have all-Democratic delegations -- the Democratic enclaves of Massachusetts and Hawaii.
They note that North Dakota backed President Bush with 61 percent of the vote in 2000 and supported former Sen. Robert Dole (R-Kansas) over then-President Bill Clinton by an eight-point margin in 1996. In fact, North Dakota has only supported one Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
In last year's midterm elections, Republicans preserved their overwhelming majorities in both houses of the state Legislature.
North Dakota political observers credit the Democrats' accessibility and their successful efforts to secure federal dollars as well as the economically depressed state's lingering populist aura in explaining why Democrats appeal to nominal Republicans year after year.
They also note that North Dakota has a long history of reelecting incumbents, a habit that has enabled the three current lawmakers to gain considerable seniority.
"The congressional delegation has done a very good job," said Stephen Stambaugh, a professor of political science at North Dakota State University. "A lot people know them and like them. They're known as Byron, Kent and Earl rather than Sen. Dorgan, Sen. Conrad and Rep. Pomeroy."
Nevertheless, Dorgan would be very hard to topple even if Shaeffer was in the picture. Congressman Earl Pomeroy (D), however, could be beaten in a presidential year
All it takes to win as a Democrat is a good looking scroundrel, whereas Republicans need good character enhanced with outstanding leadership.
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