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Repost: The Muad'dib Theory
Self | 3-10-03 | Richard S. Axtell

Posted on 03/10/2003 9:14:41 PM PST by Richard Axtell

I knew this was going to happen, so ... I am reposting this in light of the following story blurb that just appeared on Drudge:

From Drudge 10:12 PM 03-10-03

By Bill Gertz: Al Qaeda is seeking recruits in the Middle East for terrorist attacks on oil fields in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the event of U.S. military action against Iraq, U.S. intelligence officials say... MORE... The al Qaeda recruitment is targeting radical Islamists in Saudi Arabia and Yemen who are willing to conduct suicide attacks and other sabotage against the oil fields outside Iraq, the WASHINGTON TIMES will report on Tuesday. The threats to oil facilities highlight the possibility that military acton will disrupt the flow of oil from the Middle East, where most of the world´s oil originates... Developing...

This is my original post, what do you think now?

Thoughts have previously occurred to me, regarding similarities the Frank Herbert's "Dune" as relates to the Ozama Bin Laden phenomenon and the rise of Isamofascist fundamentalism, but they involve a specific aspect of the Herbert story, and thereby reflect some of the economic dangers to the West that may just now be appearing. Please forgive the strains this kind of speculation and comparison of actual events with a fictional tale put on credibility, and just bear with me for a moment. Also, please don't take my musings as any kind of endorsement or lionization of Bin Laden as some kind of hero, as they are not. But do think about the distortions inherent in myth making and the kind of megalomania that seemingly rules Bin Laden's evil character.

Ok, here goes: The Frank Herbert epic tale of "Dune" begins with the anointing of a new messianic character in Paul Atreides as "Muad'dib". This occurs as Paul's family clan is overwhelmed by treachery after migrating to take over control of the desert planet of Arrakis- the only source of the highly valued, life-prolonging "spice" Melange. Paul survives the onslaught of his treacherous enemies, the Harkonnen clan, and becomes an outcast among the indigenous people of "Dune", the "Fremen". Paul is reborn in the eyes of what become his devoted followers as "Muad'dib". According to a prophecy, a messiah would appear that would lead the virtuous but oppressed Fremen to Galaxy wide victory, in a "holy jihad" that would cleanse the universe of corruption and evil.

The interesting point I find in all of this is a line from a speech given by Muad'dib to his Fremen followers, in which he commands them to destroy all spice production on Arrakis, because "... he who can destroy a thing, controls a thing." Muad'dib's strategy is to bring the galactic empire to its knees by cutting off the supply of the absolutely essential "spice" as it is crucial to the lives of the corrupt, ancient and decrepit ruling class, and the entire culture of the galaxy, and forcing even the Galactic Emperor himself to kneel to Muad'dib's absolute authority.

The obvious comparison of oil to the "spice" in Herbert's tale didn't really hold up, until recent reports of Al Quaida plans of attacking Saudi oil refineries surfaced. Attacking oil production by the self styled "mahdi" Ozama Bin Laden made little sense, as long as his material support relied on oil rich arab states as his economic benefactors. But now, the "evil" Americans have succeeded in smashing his system of training camps and his strongholds in Afghanistan, and is chasing him worldwide, with even increasing success. He may still be alive and at large, but he is no fool, and clearly recognizes that his days are numbered.

So, why not now take that final apocalyptic step, and attack world oil production, with the aim of destroying the world economy? Wouldn't that be the most crushing blow Bin Laden could ever really hope to mete out against his envisioned mortal enemy, America and the West? Who cares about the well heeled arab aristocracy and current corrupt governing class? To hell with them! The true believers will suffer little anyway from the fall of the infidels, but instead will replace them in world dominance... ultimately! "Allah Akbar!"

Think of how very vulnerable the world's petroleum distribution infrastructure is, by its very volatile and inflammable nature. Quick, stealthy attacks by small shoulder launched missile wielding terrorist units on poorly protected oil wells, ocean drilling platforms, tankers, pipelines, refineries, oil tank farms, and even gas stations could drive the price of oil into the stratosphere, in a matter of days! It would be next to impossible to protect all of the vast and strung out storage, production, and transportation, distribution, and retailing infrastructure as it currently exists. The threat alone would have a profound effect on prices, much less a determined "suicidal" attack on world oil production. A world-wide oil/energy crisis would precipitate an world-wide economic depression, that would take enormous resources to reverse, devastating already fragile Western economies... potentially setting off the kind of world war Bin Laden has long lusted after, ... Petro-Armagedon!

Our only protection against such a "war on oil" has been the simple reality that only a fool would cut his own economic throat. But this constraint may now mean nothing to a fatalistic future martyr, with a bigger, grander agenda than just enormous economic wealth. Will Bin Laden "destroy a thing to control a thing"? Can he even attempt such a thing? We shall see.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: binladen; dune; frankherbert; muaddib; oilweapon
Sorry, but I knew this was going to happen, and for the reasons I mentioned... Bin Laden sees his days are numbered, so he will strike out in desperation, at what he sees is the source of power in the Middle East... Oil.
1 posted on 03/10/2003 9:14:42 PM PST by Richard Axtell
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To: Richard Axtell
But wouldn't Osama's strike, if successful, be merely transitory? Oil can be found all over the world and, if it came to it, we'd simply keep our domestic sources for ourselves. The wheels of government and industry would put a halt to enviro shennanigans if Osama found a way to permamnently cripple Middle East oil production. And this I doubt seriously. Saddam's scorched earth policy was repaired in record time. The Oil will flow. There's just too much of it for bin Laden to choke off for even a short period of time. IMO.
2 posted on 03/10/2003 9:26:21 PM PST by BradyLS
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To: Richard Axtell
Interesting. As a Dune fan you might like to know that the SciFi channel will be introducing the made for TV movie Children of Dune next Sunday. It looks pretty good. Too bad Susan Sarandon is in it....it will be the last time I watch ANYTHING with her in it.
3 posted on 03/10/2003 9:31:51 PM PST by Theresa
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To: Richard Axtell
BTW. I think your analogy of bin Laden to Herbert's messianic Paul Atriedes (Muad'dib) is fine. It fits, but there must a more subtle resource for Osama to attack for his choke-hold strategy to work.

He'd have to somehow develop or threaten a terrible "something" that ONLY he could put an end to that would bring the world leaders to him with hats in hand.

An extreme example can be found in Robert Heinlein's classic _The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress._ (Great read, BTW!)
4 posted on 03/10/2003 9:34:34 PM PST by BradyLS
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To: Richard Axtell
I don't see a real connection.

In Dune, the oppressed people revolted against the emperor and anyone else who oppressed them.

Seems natural enough. But, to compare Paul with Bin Wacko is a real stretch, as we are not oppressing the Arabs. We buy their product. We help them develop it.

This is a religious wacko attack and not a rebellion.

BTW, I was really looking forward to "Children of Dune" on Sci-Fi until I discovered to my dismay that Susan SaranWrap was in it.

I am afraid that Sci-Fi will have to do without me for this one.

5 posted on 03/10/2003 9:38:12 PM PST by Cold Heat
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To: BradyLS
Yes, all true. My contention is that he would attempt it out of desperation, which seems to be indicated by this developing story. I doubt anyone could effectively destroy oil production world wide, but determined terrorist attacks might well play havoc with world oil prices, particularly if there were a few successful attacks against the petroleum distribution infrastructure outside of the Middle East. The "emotion" of the market, product hoarding, and other factors would cumulatively drive the price of oil to an unsustainable record high, then it would crash again... but during all this time, the World economy would suffer severely.
6 posted on 03/10/2003 9:40:12 PM PST by Richard Axtell
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To: Richard Axtell
Ol' Osama, he bin Dune some bad things :-)
7 posted on 03/10/2003 9:44:10 PM PST by sourcery (The Oracle on Mount Doom)
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To: Richard Axtell
where the analogy falls apart is that we are kicking his organization's ass all over the world...it is getting to the point where hardly a day doesn't go by when we aren't rounding up tons of his idiots.

And now that we have a president who will pursue these guys, the hunt is in earnest for the big boy himself.
8 posted on 03/10/2003 9:50:48 PM PST by Keith
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To: Richard Axtell
You may be right, but I think his return for his effort would be slim. Consider the fallout of the WOTC attack: The lives and talents of 3000 of businessmen lost. Their place of business obliterated. Their affairs, personal and professional and those of their family and clients, have hidden costs in resolving. The squabbling over Federal Government monies to victims and the ill-will generated from OTHER victim's organzations (such as the survivor's of the OKC attack). The preying upon of victims and good Samaritans alike (such as the black eye the Red Cross suffered in their handling of monetary and blood donations). The creation of a NEW bueracracy and he restructuring of old ones (INS, TSA, CIA, FBI, etc.). The gold expended for the (necesssary) War on Terror. The political infighting and division 9/11 generated regarding the "Clinton Legacy." The bankrupting of airlines such as United AFTER the entire industry received a $15 BILLION dollar bailout after 9/11. The economic depression in that industry due to the expense and hassle to the average American to fly. The expense and hassle generated to use more inefficient forms of transportation... The list goes ON!

And to think they got away with it using a handful of crazed fundementalists armeed with box-cutters!
9 posted on 03/10/2003 9:52:56 PM PST by BradyLS
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To: Richard Axtell
Yes, all true. My contention is that he would attempt it out of desperation, which seems to be indicated by this developing story.

First, Gertz has not been very accurate in his predictions. Secondly, this could and will be done from the inside. There are likely sympathizers in every oil company. All they need to do is ram a unit with a pickup truck. They do it for Allah. They are ignorant tools, and see us and anyone who sympathizes with us as evil and against their God.

They have been preconditioned to believe the nonsense by their own governments and religious leaders.

Their governments do this in order that their subjects cannot see who their true oppressors are.

10 posted on 03/10/2003 9:54:01 PM PST by Cold Heat
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To: wirestripper
Seems natural enough. But, to compare Paul with Bin Wacko is a real stretch, as we are not oppressing the Arabs.

The problem is that a significant number of them believe that we are oppressing them. In this context, perception trumps reality.

11 posted on 03/10/2003 9:59:17 PM PST by Restorer (TANSTAAFL)
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To: BradyLS
So, what is OBL gonna do, start throwing rocks at us?
12 posted on 03/10/2003 10:09:15 PM PST by absalom01
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To: Richard Axtell
IMHO, when the bad guys' actions bind we Americans in a cycle of spending and restrictive laws for added security, red-tape, and a host of smaller, everyday hassles that eat at our time, money, patience, and peace of mind... THAT's when they get the most bang for their buck.
13 posted on 03/10/2003 10:10:25 PM PST by BradyLS (Your papers, please...)
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To: absalom01
See Reply 13. But to answer your question, no. But if he wants to win the end, that's the sort of trump card he needs to find and play. But until he loses, he can cause a lot of hassles and headaches.
14 posted on 03/10/2003 10:14:02 PM PST by BradyLS (How much will you spend to fly? How much time will you take to drive?)
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To: BradyLS
Now that you mention it, you do have a point there. I have to fly from LA to the east coast at least once a month for my work, and dealing with the silly, and ultimately ineffective 'security' always drives me nuts. (I think I recall a story about Ted Nugent walking out of an airport recently in exasperation, which is fine for him, but I don't have the option of chartering a Gulfstream to avoid the hassle.)

But anyway, my post to you was just in reaction to your RH reference. I love that book.
15 posted on 03/10/2003 10:37:05 PM PST by absalom01
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To: absalom01
But anyway, my post to you was just in reaction to your RH reference. I love that book.

D'oh! Shoulda known. I wish I'd read it 20 years ago...

16 posted on 03/10/2003 10:41:46 PM PST by BradyLS
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To: Paul Atreides
PING(((((((((0)))))))))))))
17 posted on 03/10/2003 10:58:26 PM PST by fish hawk
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To: wirestripper
The Dino DeLaurentis production of Dune (McLachlan playing Paul)was not bad...has some great moments...but not that good either.

A well made Dune flick is long overdue and would be an excellent additon to my sci fi collection.

18 posted on 03/11/2003 9:09:40 PM PST by eleni121
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To: Restorer
The problem is that a significant number of them believe that we are oppressing them. In this context, perception trumps reality.

Correct...and that has been their modus operandi since the inception of this cult. Precisely why islam is a cult not a religion.

19 posted on 03/11/2003 9:13:04 PM PST by eleni121
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To: eleni121
The Sci-fi production of Dune that aired a couple years ago was not bad, but I found it lacking.(I am not sure how)But, I did buy the CD.

Now the new one, a combination of books two and three,(The children of Dune) will be aired Sunday on Sci-Fi.

I just now found that Saran Wrap (Sarrandon, I hate her guts)) is in it and I am so depressed.

20 posted on 03/11/2003 9:17:14 PM PST by Cold Heat
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