A "Dune" theory of Bin Laden's "Petro-Aramegedon."

Personal Opinion | 02-19-03 | Richard Axtell

[Richard Axtell]

I posted this on the Camile Paglia thread earlier, but I thought I'd repost it by itself to see what others think. Has anyone else posted a similar theory, or comparison to this aspect of Frank Herbert's "Dune"?

[Pearls Before Swine]

Dune was Herbert's best work, by far. Subsequent sequels were strained, weak, and capitalized on the Dune franchise. Herbert's grasp of the fundamentalist desert viewpoint, in view of what we hear today was remarkable.

With respect to the "destruction is control" aspect, I see the poetic link, but not a true parallel. In the world of spice, all who were addicted would literally die without it--even the Fremen. That is different than the current situation with oil. If the Arab oil were cut off, the world would enter a prolonged depression, but would wind up with energy sources such as coal derived oil in 10 or 15 years, and survive at a less glamorous standard of living. The Arabs would be the most affected, and they would not be world players again--for centuries.

Bin Laden's threat, and Saddam's, to torch the oil, is more akin to Hitler's view--if he (or they) can't have it their way, they'll destroy everything around them.

[1stFreedom]

I didn't read the entire post but as a Dune fan I saw parallels.

The significant difference is that there isn't one sole source of oil that could be destroyed. In Dune, there was a single source (worms). Thank God there are numerous oil deposts around the world.

[Chancellor Palpatine]

Experts? Thanx.

[DCBryan1]

Osama isn't the Kwizatch Haderach, more like Tleilaxu.

[DCBryan1]

There is no person on earth thats immune from a green beret, delta force, or SEAL with good crysknife in his belt. Osama's days are numbered.

[HairOfTheDog]

The sand connection....

[bra]

That could never be done on the scale you suggest. On a smaller scale however, prices would certainly increase. Once the $35.00 per barrel threshold is met and sustained, the synthetic fuel industry would take off. The technology was developed in the 70's.

To keep the new industry going an import tax could keep the price at that the $35.00 per barrel level thus making synfuels economically feasible. The market would adjust to the increase in price just like it did in the early 70's during the embargo. This would be the short to mid term solution to our energy needs. The long term would be hydrogen fuel cells and finally controlled fusion itself.

American's will always adapt and prevail. That is what these 6th century morons don't understand.

DE OPPRESSO LIBER

[Semper Paratus]

"Foundation" by Isaac Assimov is titled in Arabic as "Al-Queda".

[Ichneumon]

Quick, stealthy attacks by small shoulder launched missile wielding terrorist units on poorly protected oil wells, ocean drilling platforms, tankers, pipelines, refineries, oil tank farms, and even gas stations could drive the price of oil into the stratosphere, in a matter of days!

No it couldn't. It would bump the price up a buck or two, max, but oil production and distribution systems are so numerous and spread out over the globe so much that a band of fugitives like Bin Laden's goons wouldn't be able to put any noticeable dent in it.

[Cicero]

I assume that Dune is based partly on the Muslim historian Ibn Kaldun's (sp?) theory that primitive desert cultures are strong but when they use this power to conquer a civilization they quickly grow decadent, effete, and weak.

Paul Muadib rallies the tough desert people against the effete empire in "Dune," the only really good novel in the series, IMHO.

I don't think the parallel holds. Bin Ladin thinks of himself as tough and strong, no doubt, but he is in fact the rich product of a bunch of thoroughly spoiled Saudis. Plus, of course, he's not a messiah.

[longtermmemmory]

The tactics parallel, but they are centuries old and not unique. In a single phrase, hit supply lines of the enemy. Nothing special there.

In Dune, there was only ONE source for spice and in the begining they did not know the worms were the source. If not only from middle east, then the untapped oil from the aegean sea, then the south america, then us, then methanol, then something else. Petrodollars may power their ecconomy but they are not the only oil source or energy source for that matter.

[Cicero]

Let me correct the spelling. It's Ibn Khaldun, and there's a web site on him at http://salam.muslimsonline.com/~azahoor/khaldun.html.
It's been a while since I read his book.

[richardtavor]

Tar sands in Canada have about as much "in situ" hydrocarbons as Saudi Arabia and can be economic at about $45 per bbl (read that a few years back.) Also the synthetic coal oil in Colorado was economic at $38 per in 1980 (don't know what it would take now.)

[MadIvan]

There is a difference. Spice was only found on Arrakis. The largest single supplier of oil to the United States is Venezuela.

Furthermore, Muad'dib did not actually destroy spice production - his power came from the ability to threaten such destruction. Actually doing it would have crippled him as much as the universe.

Regards, Ivan

[mhking]

"He who controls the spice, controls the universe..."

[Richard Axtell]

" No it couldn't. It would bump the price up a buck or two, max, but oil production and distribution systems are so numerous and spread out over the globe so much that a band of fugitives like Bin Laden's goons wouldn't be able to put any noticeable dent in it.

Today's oil price is $37 a barrel, according to Drudge. How much higher can the price per barrel go before it begins to have an marked negative effect on the world economy? Al Qaida is purported to have cells in 60+ countries. Certainly any attack on world oil production would have a short term effect, but would that effect be enough for Bin Laden to try it, given his desperate straits? As I mentioned in my opinion piece, I am not arguing so much that this would actually work, but that Bin Laden might just be disposed to make such a suicidal and certainly destructive attack on the basis for so much of the world economy. The speculated about attacks on Saudi oil refineries would be an indication of such a fatalistic strategy, if they do occur.

[semaj]

Got news for you. Destroying the middle east oil supply will not destroy the entire world economy, as there are know massive oil reserves in other places besides the middle east. Mind you, what you describe would definitely hurt markets worldwide, but it would not bring about the Armageddon the author fears. These untapped reserves would be able to supply the worlds economy for hundreds of years. Don't take my word for it though.

[Mr. Bird]

In order to wreak the havoc desired, Osama would need an army of skilled soldiers, and the equipment to arm them. He has neither.

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

One scenario that has been tossed about is a radiological or "dirty" bomb detonated on a ship within the Persian Gulf. The implication is that you would shut down that waterway for decades. Whether that is true from a technical point of view, I can't say, but the Gulf is most certainly a choke point.