I think it's the beer tax.
Posted on 01/25/2003 12:39:45 PM PST by Mr. Morals
Backing for Schröder's party slides to historic low
By Haig Simonian in Berlin
Published: January 25 2003 4:00
Support for Germany's ruling Social Democrats dropped to an historic low yesterday in a clear signal to chancellor Gerhard Schröder of popular frustration at the government's broken election promises and perceived drift.
With two important regional elections next month, the German leader had tried to use opposition to war against Iraq at a rally this week to boost his flagging support.
But his ploy, which worked so well in the German elections last September, has failed to impress a public growing impatient for structural changes to revive the economy.
A new opinion poll showed backing for the chancellor's SPD had fallen to 25 per cent - the lowest figure in the 26 years the poll has been conducted.
By contrast the survey for ZDF television showed support for the opposition Christian Democrats and its Bavarian sister party the CSU stood at 56 per cent, while the environmentalist Greens scored 10 per cent.
Angela Merkel, CDU chairman, predicted that victory in the Lower Saxony and Hesse elections on February 2 would send an unmistakable challenge to the SPD to quicken the pace and scope of economic reform.
Ms Merkel, speaking at a news conference just ahead of the government's first 100 days next week, refrained surprisingly from forecasting that victory in the state elections would prompt her party to adopt a more obstructionist approach.
Retaining Hesse and winning Lower Saxony would significantly strengthen the CDU's hold over the Bundesrat, the upper parliamentary chamber, where the states are represented.
The opposition already has a narrow Bundesrat majority. But gaining Lower Saxony from the SPD would add another six Bundesrat votes, consolidating the CDU's position and making it more difficult for Mr Schröder to win round opposition-run states.
Victory on February 2 would mean "there can be a different political game in Germany thanks to the CDU", said Ms Merkel.
"The message from the Bundesrat will be even stronger", said Roland Koch, the tough CDU premier of Hesse. "The need to make compromises will be greater than ever."
Yesterday's surprising moderation from the CDU, which has pursued a path of grudging co-operation since Mr Schröder's victory in last year's general elections, has triggered speculation that the opposition may be angling for a national "Grand Coalition" with the SPD if the government's fortunes continue to wane.
However, the remarks by Ms Merkel and the CDU's lead candidates in Hesse and Lower Saxony suggested that the avoidance of an inflammatory approach, including threats of a Bundesrat blockade, were more indicative of a subtler electoral strategy designed to persuade voters that the party was acting responsibly in Germany's best interests.
Both Ms Merkel and her two regional lieutenants failed, however, to indicate how they would boost Germany's chronically weak growth without breaching the deficit rules for the euro, or how they could improve relations with the US while still respecting popular antipathy to a conflict in Iraq.
If the state elections in Saxony give a big victory to Germany's conservative party, the CDU, as is expected, Schröder might lose power in the upper house and be forced to call early elections.
Should early elections be held under today's sentiments, Schröder's party will be reduced to a rump like today's Conservative Party in Britain and might not regain power for a generation.
Should the CDU/CSU coalition win, there will likely be a new ally in the war on terror.
In the end, who knows what will happen? Maybe Germany can persuade France to send a few pastry chefs to make yummy deserts for the troops! :-D
A shame. They thought the name change from National German Socialist Worker's Party would make them more popular. ;-)
I think it's the beer tax.
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