Polls assess key campaigns [All Maine Races]

Portland Press Herald ^ | 9/26/02 | David Sharp

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Polls assess key campaigns

By DAVID SHARP, Associated Press

Democrat Michael Michaud and Republican Kevin Raye are locked in a tight congressional race in Maine's 2nd District, but heavy television advertising has not erased wide leads for Susan Collins and John Baldacci in the Senate and gubernatorial races, according to polls released Wednesday.

One poll by Strategic Marketing Services showed Michaud leading Raye by 5.4 percentage points, a statistical dead heat after the margin of error was taken into account. The other, by Critical Insights, had Michaud ahead by 9 points.

Both polls indicated Democrat Chellie Pingree still has considerable ground to make up in her race against Republican Collins. Pingree trailed by 25.4 percentage points in the SMS poll and 29 percentage points in the Critical Insights poll.

In the gubernatorial race, Republican Peter Cianchette also lagged behind Democrat Baldacci. He was 29 percentage points behind Baldacci in the SMS poll, 19 percentage points behind in the Critical Insights poll.

In the 1st District, Democratic Rep. Tom Allen held a commanding lead over Republican Steven Joyce in both surveys: 34 percentage points in the SMS poll, 23 percentage points in the Critical Insights poll.

It was particularly telling that Pingree and Cianchette did not do better despite heavy spending on TV advertising, said Richard Maiman, a political science professor at the University of Southern Maine.

Closing the gap could have bolstered their campaigns, and their failure to do so could reduce campaign contributions, Maiman said.

"If you're behind by that much at this point, you do have to be worried about whether you can continue to generate the funds to make it to the finish line. That might be the biggest concern," he said.

Tony Corrado, a political science professor at Colby College, agreed that the TV advertising blitz through September did not substantially alter the dynamics of the Senate race or the gubernatorial race.

In the sprawling 2nd District, however, the results showed a tighter race for Raye and Michaud, both of whom are vying for the seat vacated by Baldacci, who is making his bid for the Blaine House.

"The Second District race is the interesting one with both parties pouring a lot of outside money into it," Maiman said.

"It's clearly the most competitive race in the state," Corrado said. "Come October, there's going to be a lot of interest in this race."

The Critical Insights survey consisted of phone calls from Sept. 15-22. In all, 509 registered voters who were likely to vote, voted in the last gubernatorial race and could identify their polling place were included in the results. The margin of error was 4.5 percentage points in the statewide races and 6 percentage points in the congressional races.

The SMS survey consisted of phone calls Sept. 20-23 to 600 registered voters who said they would definitely or most likely vote. The margin of error was 4 percentage points on the statewide races and 5.5 points on the congressional races.

The campaigns of Pingree and Cianchette both took aim at the polls.

Roy Lenardson, campaign manger for Cianchette, called the SMS survey that showed his campaign down by 29 percentage points "a sloppy poll by non-pollsters who are advancing a political opinion." A poll conducted for the Cianchette campaign showed him trailing by 10.5 percentage points among likely voters.

Deborah Barron, spokeswoman for Pingree, said polls conducted by the campaign show a much tighter race, with Pingree trailing by 9 percentage points. Besides, she said, "Voters vote on issues, not polls."

One factor that neither poll took into account was Green Independent Party candidate Jonathan Carter's television advertising. Carter won 7 percent in the Critical Insights poll and a lesser amount in the SMS poll. But the polls were taken before his television blitz began. He plans to spend $500,000 on TV ads between now and the election.

Both the SMS poll and the Critical Insights poll were independently funded and were not conducted for any political campaigns, representatives of the polling firms said.

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