Posted on 09/20/2002 9:32:38 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Poll finds only one statewide race is close
Birkett, Madigan in statistical tie for attorney general
By DOUG FINKE
STATE CAPITOL BUREAU
DuPage County State's Attorney Joe Birkett, a Republican, holds a slim lead over Democratic state Sen. Lisa Madigan in the race for Illinois attorney general, a new Copley News Service poll shows.
The poll also found that incumbents in races for treasurer, secretary of state and comptroller hold substantial leads over their challengers - a result aided by the fact that at least two-thirds of those polled say they've never heard of the challengers.
The power of incumbency also carried over to the U.S. Senate race, where Democrat Sen. Dick Durbin of Springfield leads state Rep. James Durkin, R-Westchester, by more a than 2-1 margin.
Conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, the poll questioned 621 people who said they regularly vote in state elections. The poll was conducted Saturday through Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
In the race for attorney general, 45 percent of the respondents preferred Birkett, compared with 42 percent for Madigan. Thirteen percent were undecided. With the poll's margin of error, Birkett and Madigan are in a statistical dead heat.
Of greater concern to Madigan is the large number of people who have an unfavorable opinion of her. Fully 28 percent of those who said they've heard of Madigan said they have an unfavorable opinion of her. That compares to 29 percent who said they have a favorable opinion.
"Typically, you want your favorable rating to be twice as large as your unfavorable," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon. "There's potential weakness there."
When the same question was asked about Birkett, 30 percent said they had a favorable opinion of him, while 8 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion.
The numbers indicate Madigan could be paying a price for being the daughter of powerful House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago. The elder Madigan - who is also chairman of the state Democratic Party - is the subject of a federal investigation into whether bonuses he paid to House Democratic staffers were illegal. Allegations have also surfaced that staffers helped campaigns on state time and that a police group endorsed Lisa Madigan because they feared retaliation from the speaker if they didn't. Speaker Madigan has denied any wrongdoing.
Poll respondents were asked whether they were less likely to vote for Lisa Madigan because of Mike Madigan's problems. While 63 percent said it would make no difference, 27 percent said it would, a potentially decisive number in a close election.
The poll shows that while Madigan holds a substantial lead over Birkett in Chicago and Cook County, Birkett leads in every other part of the state. That includes southern Illinois, where both U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin and Democrat gubernatorial candidate Rod Blagojevich are polling better than Madigan.
"I think Madigan is being attacked as a Chicago machine politician, and that's hurting there," Coker said.
Birkett spokesman Steve Binder said the poll shows that Birkett's message is taking root with voters.
"His record, his experience, his tenure as a prosecutor, that message is starting to come across," Binder said. "On the flip side, (voters) are recognizing that his opponent has zero law enforcement experience and has never tried a case in a courtroom. Courtroom experience and prosecutorial experience is the number one factor in this race."
Madigan spokeswoman Melissa Merz said the campaign remains confident that its own message will resonate with voters.
"We are confident that when our message of fighting to protect Illinois families reaches all of the voters, we will win," Merz said. "Not many people know about Joe Birkett. We are certain the more people know about Joe Birkett, the more people will vote for Lisa Madigan."
In fact, the poll shows that 34 percent of respondents didn't recognize Birkett's name. Only 14 percent said they weren't familiar with Lisa Madigan.
The poll showed little suspense in the races for secretary of state, treasurer and comptroller. In all three races, the incumbents held substantial leads over their opponents. And in every race, the challengers faced serious name-recognition problems. Between 66 percent and 77 percent of respondents said they didn't recognize the names of the challengers, a major problem for candidates who generally lack the financial resources to make extensive advertising purchases.
"Right now, there's no sign of any potential upsets," Coker said.
In all three races, people were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. Respondents preferred Democratic Secretary of State Jesse White over Republican Kristine Cohn by 61 percent to 23 percent. Sixteen percent were undecided.
Republican Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka held a 48 percent to 29 percent lead over Rep. Tom Dart, D-Chicago. And Democratic Comptroller Dan Hynes was preferred by 47 percent to 26 percent for Thomas Jefferson Ramsdell. However, in both races, more than 20 percent of the respondents hadn't made up their minds.
Dart spokesman Mike Grady said the numbers show Topinka can be defeated.
"After serving two terms in office and spending millions of taxpayer dollars on self-promotion, for Topinka to be under 50 percent is a real sign of weakness," Grady said.
"Tom Dart should be more worried about the fact that his lifeless campaign is lagging behind the rest of the Democratic ticket," said Topinka spokesman John McGovern.
Grady said the Dart campaign has been "massing the resources" necessary to make a big push in the final weeks of the campaign. So far, Dart hasn't done any radio or TV advertising, and Grady declined to say when it would begin.
Cohn spokesman Charlie Stone said he expects the gap to close in the race once the news media begins to focus more attention on it. White spokesman Dave Druker said, "We'll continue to campaign like we are 15 points down."
Ramsdell said the poll shows that "the voters of the state are by no means satisfied ... the current comptroller has earned the right to be re-elected." With limited financial resources, Ramsdell acknowledged he will have to rely on an aggressive schedule of personal appearances to get his name out.
Hynes spokeswoman Karen Craven said the poll "shows that the comptroller's record of accomplishments and his leadership in office are resonating with voters."
When the U.S. Senate campaign got into swing this year, some pundits wondered whether voters would be confused by a matchup that featured Durbin and Durkin. The poll shows that they are not. Durbin held 57 to 28 percent lead, with 15 percent undecided. Durbin was ahead of Durkin in every area of the state, including the GOP-heavy collar counties.
"We learned in the primary not to put too much faith in the polls," said Durkin campaign manager Brock Willeford. Durkin trailed most polls before winning the March primary.
Durbin spokeswoman Stacey Zolt said the poll will have no affect on Durbin.
"He wakes up every morning as if he's 10 points behind," Zolt said. "He does not take his support for granted."
The Libertarian Party is also fielding candidates for U.S. Senate, secretary of state, treasurer and comptroller. They were not included in the poll.
Steven Burgauer is the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate. Other Libertarian candidates include Rhys Read for treasurer, Gary Shilts for attorney general and Julie Fox for comptroller.
Unfortunately, our liberals aren't as stupid as Florida's liberals.
At least there will be some Republicans still in office after the Blagojevich win. This year could have been a lot worse.
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