China's Space Ambitions Keep Western Experts Guessing

As China gears up for its next major step in the development of a world-class space program, putting a human in space, Western observers see more than just one nation's efforts to push the boundaries of science and exploration.

China hungers to become a world space power, with a program driven by internal Chinese politics, pride, prestige, and a healthy dose of military bravado. Like its development as a market economy, China wants to call its own shots in space and is striving to build an independent human spaceflight capability.

Yet even before the first Chinese astronauts ascend into orbit, the country's space officials claim a space station, even a reach for the Moon, are part of the nation's long-term program.

Some Western space analysts see a hidden agenda, though, one of military dominance in space while others say China's space officials are far too boastful, lacking money and the political backing to truly storm the heavens.

Outside space authorities can only second-guess China's true space trajectory over the months and years to come. But without question, as China's space expertise grows, it appears to be heading in a unique direction.

China's budding space program is analogous to what the United States and the Soviet Union did in the 1960s, said Joan Johnson-Freese, a professor in the Department of Transnational Studies at the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii. "This is their 'Apollo redux,'" she told SPACE.com, noting that her opinions are personal and not those of the U.S. government.

Steps forward in space by China, particularly flights of their soon-to-be-piloted Shenzhou spacecraft, tend to stir up a flurry of positive press coverage, Johnson-Freese points out. "China's global esteem as a 'player' goes up in the rarified high-tech world in which the U.S. clearly dominates. Domestically, a sense of unifying national pride is generated," she said.

Johnson-Freese said that China becoming the third nation in the world able to loft people into orbit -- behind Russia and the United States -- is a win-win for the Chinese in terms of both prestige and capability. In the process, she said, China leaves Japan and European countries behind to eat rocket exhaust.

Charles Vick, chief of the Space Policy Division of the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, D.C. senses a strategic threat coming from China's military-run space program. Also, the Chinese authoritarian regime is trying to legitimize themselves to the masses, he said.

"The entire manned program is aimed at Earth orbital flight with primarily military objectives," Vick said. Talk about manned lunar and planetary projects "is more camouflage to real reality," he said.

"They have officially stated that a permanent manned space station is their primary goal that is approved," Vick emphasized. While some years down the road, he said a space station would undergo several phases leading to a more permanent Earth orbiting platform, "provided the funds are there."

"Costing the Chinese science fiction command economy is totally unrealistic, especially out into the future," Vick said.

A cautionary flag raised by Vick centers on China's microsatellite program, an effort that potentially could double as anti-satellite weaponry.

Shenzhou spacecraft can be outfitted with piggyback "nanosatellites", deployed in orbit from the larger vehicle. Chinese space officials say these small craft are built to handle telecommunications duties.

China's overall proficiency in space was strengthened by the Shenzhou 3 flight of a few months ago, said Dean Cheng, Research Analyst with Project Asia at The CNA Corporation in Washington, D.C.

Work is continuing apace on a heavy-lift booster, Cheng said, as well as maneuvering and telemetry-related technologies. China is beefing up mission control and global monitoring skills too. A host of related spin-offs are being realized due to Chinese work on fashioning a human space launch capacity, within the areas of miniaturization, materials, and the life sciences, he said.

Contrasted to America's first space travel corps, the Chinese counterparts to the U.S. "Mercury 7" are reportedly 14 in number. Out of this group, an even dozen candidates are apparently undergoing evaluation, from which two to three individuals are destined for a Shenzhou ride into orbit and back down to terra firma.

It's not clear where these "yuhangyuan", or astronauts, came from, Cheng said. Finding out what individuals were picked and from where may help pin down how the Chinese manned space program fits within the military realm, and whether it is affiliated with any particular branch of service, he said.

Cheng said that, presumably, other space projects would suffer as limited resources are increasingly given to a humans-in-space program. That gives rise to how China will prioritize its space exploration agenda. The proverbial human versus automated spacecraft battle lines are surely to be drawn, he said.

Marching orders to work on lunar technology are spelled out in China's Tenth Five-Year Plan (2001-2005), Cheng said. The so-called 863 program outlines key technology areas that receive massive state support. That suggests technology for Moon exploration is a national priority, he said.

"Given this national-level priority, and the level of technology already exhibited, the Chinese approach does not appear outlandish, nor even necessarily excessively optimistic," Cheng believes. Much of the fundamental theoretical work has already been accomplished. Lessons learned are easy pickings thanks to the highly publicized "space race" between the United States and the Soviet Union of decades past, he told SPACE.com.

"The idea of a Chinese manned lunar mission, therefore, moves from the exorbitant to the merely expensive," Cheng said.

One unknown factor is China's stance on space law and private investment on the Moon. Does it believe that the Moon constitutes a potential source of financial return on its investment? Or is it primarily interested in scientific and prestige aspects?

"The answer to this could have important implications for lunar development," Cheng said. "Particularly, if the U.S. were to reinvigorate its space program. But even more, if private corporations were to take the lead in such an effort," the China space analyst said.

Laser weapons in outer space? Indeed, what's to understand? It's gonna be like an old James Bond flick! No need to understand it, just sit back and eat your popcorn!

While NASA was trying to get explorer, and then some monkeys, and then some humans into space, the US government was on track with its very successful spy satellite program. No doubt China wants to emulate us. If they are trying to develop a way to attack our satellites in space or worse, than the arms race moves into space and whether our defense budget balloons further might depend on whether or not the Air Force is up to the challenge.

It would be difficult for them to pull it off with all the growing "market economy" asperations of the masses.

HOWEVER, IF China decided to do something like a space station--and needed to force everyone to eat primarily "shee fan" watery rice gruel--and not much else to accomplish it--her arrogant authoritarian leaders are grandiose enough to try and do it.

And to some degree, the yearning on the part of the man in the street to make this the Chinese Century--rising to the top star position on the world stage after so many centuries of humiliation at the hands of the west--that yearning is palpable. There's plenty of hazard in that.

" I cant think of anything more terrifying than to ride a Chinese rocket into space. "

I can being within 50 miles of wherever it delivers its payload...or " lands"

These guys dont want fame as much as they want the high ground, and since we have a stagnant now grounded fleet we are not in a great position to stop them.

Some Western space analysts see a hidden agenda

I had no idea that being a freeper meant that you were also a western space analyst.

far too boastful

The Chinese have been launching and recovering spacecraft capable of carrying 2 or 3 astronauts. Maybe they aren't spending a lot of money, but their engineers work for new pocket protectors.

Maybe they would like a good deal on some slightly used but repairable Space Shuttles.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.