Posted on 02/18/2024 7:17:00 PM PST by NoLibZone
BitcoinBTC 0.0% and the wider crypto market have pulled off a dramatic recovery over the last year, with the bitcoin price up 100%, ethereum up 60% and XRPXRP 0.0% up 35%.
In early 2021, the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), flew past $50,000 per coin for the first time. After falling about 75% from its all-time high in the inflation-powered crisis of 2022, the cryptocurrency had a lot of ground to make up. But on Feb. 12, Bitcoin finally surged past $50,000 once again.
The price of Bitcoin is rising at an incredible pace. As of this writing, it's up more than 130% over the past year and up more than 20% in just the past month. At this rate, investors may fairly wonder if Bitcoin can surge past $60,000 before the summer.
The answer is "yes": Bitcoin can surge past $60,000 before the summer. Here's why I think so.
Why Bitcoin can keep rising
When it comes to the future price of Bitcoin, the key question to consider is whether there will be a wave of buying demand from new and existing adopters. In other words, are there incentives to buy and hold Bitcoin right now?
There are multiple reasons to believe that people and institutions are buying and holding Bitcoin right now. Here are a few to consider.
The first 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs were just approved and began trading. Consider that there's a learning curve to buying cryptocurrency through an exchange or attempting self-custody, and the easy-to-use exchange-traded funds (ETFs) go around that roadblock. These spot-price ETFs could enjoy rapid adoption because they allow people to invest in Bitcoin as they would invest in stocks, reducing complexity. According to data from CoinShares, inflows into these ETFs are picking up steam, with more than $1 billion in weekly inflows.
Institutional adoption is another important point. Companies such as MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) don't fear being among the early adopters of Bitcoin -- the tech company held over 190,000 bitcoins as of Feb. 5. But even institutions that used to be against Bitcoin are now warming to the idea. For example, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink once said that Bitcoin was an "index for money laundering" but more recently praised it, calling it "digital gold" in an interview with Fox Business.
Similar to institutional adoption, there are many well-funded cryptocurrency companies that are also holding Bitcoin. I point out that they're well-funded because this means they won't be pressured to sell their holdings for liquidity reasons. For example, Bitcoin mining company Marathon Digital (NASDAQ: MARA) has over $300 million in cash, mitigating its need to sell off any of its nearly 16,000 bitcoins anytime soon. Also, stablecoin Tether generates interest income on the cash it holds in reserves. With this income, it also invests in Bitcoin and now reportedly holds over 66,000 bitcoins.
Between Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption, well-funded crypto operations, and other things, billions of dollars are currently being used to buy and hold Bitcoin. In short, there's high demand.
supply through an event known as the Bitcoin halving. To explain it briefly, Bitcoin is slightly inflationary, with new bitcoins regularly added to the circulating supply. However, the rate of new supply gets cut in half about every four years, and the next halving of mining rewards will take place around late April.
Assuming the demand for Bitcoin holds steady or grows, the price of Bitcoin can surge when the new supply gets cut in half. This sudden spike in price can then trigger buying from investors with crypto FOMO, exacerbating the spike even more.
The first day of summer is June 20 -- a full two months after the Bitcoin halving. Given past price appreciations after Bitcoin halving events, rising 20% from $50,000 to $60,000 per bitcoin should be no problem whatsoever.
The major caveat here
The other question investors should ask is whether Bitcoin investors have or will have an incentive to sell. And indeed, they might.
According to data from AltIndex, around 90% of all Bitcoin addresses had paper profits at the start of February -- the percentage is even higher now, and it's the highest it's been since late 2021. In other words, most people would make money if they sold their Bitcoin right now. That, indeed, could motivate holders to sell. And if selling pressure equals or surpasses demand from buyers, then the price of Bitcoin won't hit that $60,000 target.
Then again, most Bitcoin investors are likely aware of the more bullish arguments. Therefore, even though they have paper profits now, many likely will keep holding, anticipating higher profits later.
In closing, I'll say that my personal conviction is that Bitcoin is in for another strong year in 2024. But that doesn't mean that this is an investment to take lightly. In past years, we've seen Bitcoin get hit by bad actors and wild swings in general investor sentiment. Therefore, nothing is guaranteed, and it could be a wild ride.
The big question is when it will drop to $15,000 again.
FR Crypto Ping List!
The big question is, when will the US dollar collapse and be replaced by BRICS?
If the cycle holds, there will be a dip (sell the news) when the halving happens this spring - followed by the strongest part of the bull run through the rest of this year and well into 2025 when it peaks in a frenzy somewhere well into 6 digits. Followed by a pullback that could take it back into 5 figures again (I rather doubt we'll ever be seeing $15K again).
The biggest threat to the cycle IMO would be macroeconomic factors. Until recently I expected a loosening monetary policy and dropping interest rates to coincide nicely with the strongest portion of the bull run. Now it looks like inflation may be reigniting, which will result in tighter monetary policy. That means less money floating around for people to invest, which translates into less fiat being traded for Bitcoin.
Still, that would have to be an extreme effect to counter the inflows we are now seeing from ETF investors. And since many investors will dollar-cost average over time, I expect to see some moderation in bitcoin price swings going forward.
Oct of 2025
80 weeks past halving is the peak.
Sell.
Re enter at lower.
Bitcoin typically peaks 80 weeks post halving
Bitcoin may peak Oct of 2025
From this youtuber:
Kevin Svenson
it’s not an investment...
Bitcoin was over $60,000 just a few years back.
I doubt it will. That was the bottom of the bear market this past time. The bottom and the top during a bull market for Bitcoin (and all of crypto) is higher each time. For example, during the 2015 bull market $21k was the top of the bull market. $67K was the top last time and $15K was the bottom about a year and a half ago
Neither were Tulips, internet stocks. But that did not stop them from rising to crazy highs.
pump and dump, baby, pump and dump!
If the $US collapses Bitcoin will go to infinity.
From the Wall Street Journal ;
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-what-to-know-before-investing-11613498045
Bitcoin is the bet that the government control on the value of the dollar is falling.
That’s true. But if the $US dollar collapses, valuing Bitcoin in US dollars doesn’t tell you much.
What’s the value of Bitcoin in Zimbabwe dollars ?
BTC in Zimbabwe “dollars”: 1 BTC = 652,436,000 ZWL
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=BTC&to=ZWL
Bitcoin is a crypto-token, not currency.
Tokens are collectibles, from the perspective of collectors who value collecting such tokens.
In tough times, the value of most things decline, but relative to each other, some decline at slower rates.
“The trick” with assets, is to choose those that may deline at the relatively slower rates.
Inflation: Back in the 1970’s - 1980’s, the story was, that silver and gold offered some protection: that is, preserving assets. And, prices increased.
In contrast, over the last 3 years especially, of significant inflation, the prices of silver and gold have remained in a range - when compared to the prices of, say, October 2020.
Brics is a debating society that can’t possibly support a sound currency, because none of the Brics countries trust each other to physically hold the gold. As I have noted in the past, the only way Brics could ever support a sound currency is if the “s” in Brics meant Switzerland.
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