Posted on 02/05/2024 7:25:01 AM PST by george76
When are 335,000 new jobs not 335,000 new jobs? When Washington makes them up and the media dutifully report them with all due breathlessness.
...
The workweek, itself, contracted to 34.1 hours from 34.3 in December and 34.4 in November. This is the lowest number since March 2020 (the pandemic) and, before that, November 2008 (Great Recession)."
Rosenberg Research calculated that, despite the job gains, total hours worked actually contracted .. In fact, the Household Survey — "the one the media ignores," as Barone put it — "showed up with a -31K headline jobs number, and a fall of -63K in full-time jobs." Worse, the labor participation rate remains down. Americans are working more part-time jobs because there are fewer full-time jobs to go around — a sizable fraction of last month's jobs went to people taking on a second or third job.
So how did the BLS come up with 335,000 new jobs when the Household Survey showed a net loss of 31,000? For that, let's go to Seeking Alpha:
The BLS also publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions. January is always a big drop, but this was smaller than last year (-144k in Jan 2023 vs. -121k in Jan 2024). Birth/death specifically refers to assumptions made about new business being formed.
"Birth/Death assumptions" means just that. The BLS assumes that so many jobs were created or destroyed and (kind of) fixes the imaginary numbers when the real data come in. Now you know why jobs always seem to get revised downward. Seeking Alpha adds that "many believe the Household survey is a more accurate measure of employment when compared to the headline number."
No kidding.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
what! the media lies? this is a joke right?
Shocking. 😱 (/s)
BIDEN LIES-—THE MEDIA FAITHFULLY SPOUTS WHAT BIDEN SAYS
Corporate Media = The Ministry of Propaganda
Biden is only capable of costing people their jobs...like pipeline workers.
And the FED has to pretend the BLS Jobs number is good so they cannot make a rate cut.
Civilian non-institutional population - Participation rate now at 62.4 - down from 62.8 - Nov. 2023..
Not in labor force - 100,090,000 - Jan. 2023 - plus the officially unemployed of 5,719,000.. almost 106 million not working.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
JOB GAINS, FALSELY REPORTED; SOUNDS LIKE AN OBOZO DIRECTIVE.
Need to look at this further, but there are two types of job openings. The one where John or Jane leaves and Ralph or Ruby is hired to backfill for them. The other is because John or Jane are working overtime or if salaried are burning out or reached their max potential and hiring Ralph or Ruby eases those issues. The latter is where the possibility of average work week hours could contract.
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Seasonal employment adjustments are simply crazy for January. The swings are so large it is almost impossible to state them without being way, way off the mark.
I don’t think many serious economy watchers take the January number (of any year) with anything less than a “boulder” sized grain of salt.
But, the BLS puts them out without any explanation and the idiots applaud them. Wait until the revisions next month…that will go unreported.
Didn’t ADP report 104k? Quite a difference!
I only know two people who are saying they are NOT worried about loosing their job.
I know over 100 who ARE worried.
George76,
Thank you for your graph you supplied. You were kind in your entry as it tells a whole lot more than just numbers of employment and is very displaying of the real situation involved if it is factual (the government lies).
I submit for questions about:
How can the participation rate go up 1/10th of a percent but be negligible from Jan 23 to Jan 24 in the numbers as one the Dems are presenting? Especially when the population ratio is exactly the same when we know the population and workforce has increased.
And I noticed that the highest rate of unemployment by age was teens 16 to 19. And that got worse from one year ago, (.1%) working at higher numbers. Over all, the unemployment rate went up that catagory age and all of age from Jan 23.
Under reasons, the number of people who finished a temp job almost doubled reentrants. And when you consider that the duration of unemployment of less than 5 weeks is the largest catagory out there, the graph over all tells me two things:
a majority of the jobs out there are taken by people to keep an income coming in and don’t qualify for benefits the feds have supplied out of our pockets or have fallen off the paperwork going past those benefits. And the majority of jobs being supplied are not career jobs and the over qualified people are taking the jobs away from people who have nothing to provide for the jobs like high school drop outs or even just high school diplomas in competition with bachelors degrees.
Tack that on to the inflow of illegals taking the low level jobs like picking crops and sweeping floors and you have nothing to brag about.
Again, thank you for the info.
wy69
Those are good points, however making it even worse, it appears that there were some announce changes in the way the data is collected and processed for January, which creates a discontinuity with the data.
I’ve seen it reported elsewhere that the large layoffs from January are acknowledged as not being included in the January data.
I had a neighbor who would brag about her casino winnings. One time she was crowing about hitting a royal flush on video poker. It paid $1000. She was so happy. I asked how much she played to hit it. She said she started with $1200....but that was just her gambling money.
Same principle.
EC
“...”the one the media ignores,” as Barone put it — “showed up with a -31K headline jobs number, and a fall of -63K in full-time jobs.”...”
“The most insidious power the media has, is the power to ignore.” — Chris Plante, WMAL, DC
Is Chris Plante still on the radio? He was my favorite when I lived in the DC area.
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