Posted on 02/01/2024 9:21:40 AM PST by lightman
The earliest known reference to the term black swan occurs in the Roman poet Juvenal’s poem Satire VI, in which he describes potential qualities of a woman worthy of marriage.
His line “rara avis in terris, nigroque simillima cygno” translates to “a rare bird in the world, very similar to the black swan.”
…that a perfect wife is a "rare bird" (rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cycno 6.165); a rare bird in the earth, a modified form of which is the modern phrase "a black swan," since black swans are rarer than white.
The person who coined the modern term, Black Swan:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (/ˈtɑːləb/; alternatively Nessim or Nissim; born 12 September 1960) is a Lebanese-American essayist, mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
The book has been described by The Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II.
I don’t think you understand the Democrats very well. They will do anything to win. Doesn’t matter who the Republicans put up.
Add CCP invades Taiwan.
Forcing a person who doesn't want the job to rule over people who don't want that person anywhere near the levers of power and being able to lord that fact over everyone involved is an extra special bonus to the sociopaths behind the throne.
It's not enough for Big Mike to suffer, and for everyone else in the US (and the rest of the world) to suffer, they want us to know their cabal is the reason we are suffering, and there isn't Adam Jack Schiff we can do about it!
Especially since water boils at 100°C at sea level.
Even lower at your altitude...
I seem to be getting a lot of disagreement on this. I think the point is too fine.
By “cheat”, I mean the now-famous “F-curves”: in-your-face cheating. The kind of cheating they only have to do to overcome Trump.
You don’t think Obama actually beat Romney, do you?
I suppose I also don’t even understand your disagreement. Do you think that if Trump is forced out, the Democrats will WANT to drag Biden’s sorry ass across the finish line? They could certainly “win” easier with another candidate.
Everyone fights everyone else for survival.
Those of us here in the Northeast understand Democratic cheating—they are blatant about it and have been for decades—and as you say they could not care less who the Republican candidate is—the Democrats view them as road kill.
The rest of the country is just beginning to catch on....
No, I think Trump’s departure would bring in Haley as POTUS with Sununu as VP. Which(according to Tucker) is the plot of the Deep State.
They are both Deep State RINOS. So, whats the difference other than they may secure the border better than the Biden Admin.
We would probably end up in full blown war again in the middle east. Which would probably be great for Raytheon and General Dynamics and people who own oil wells. Probably not so good for the rest of us.
There is a James O’Keefe video that came out yesterday of an undercover interview with a White House Cyber Security guy.
He stated(to his date-another gay guy) that Michelle has absolutely NO interest in being POTUS. That they were sticking with Biden and Kamala.
Another possible Black Swan Event: the assassination of President Trump. With a suspected tie to the FBI/CIA/DOE.
Swift and boyfriend throw their support to Trump which triggers a civil war that is abandoned when an armada of AI controlled space androids attacks Earth and the political antagonists must join forces with synapsid dog men related to Permian period Gorgonopsians who emerge from caverns in Kentucky and New Mexico to save the planet.
Somehow, my post seems to be being read as kindly to the Democrats. I think that the quoted word, “normal”, must be too subtle. There’s cheating like Obama used to beat Romney, or even Hillary used to “win the popular vote”. This is what I mean by “normal”, in scare-quotes.
Then, there’s in-your-face, “F-curve”, go-to-bed-winning-wake-up-lost cheating.
The Dems have choices of how they want this to go down. They can try 2020 again, but I think they are furiously calculating the odds of Civil War. 2024 would have to be even more blatant than 2020 against Trump because even lunatics are starting to taste the sh-t-sandwich.
They won’t need “F-curves” to beat Birdbrain, especially not with someone other than Biden.
I was reading the third book in Ian Toll’s War in the Pacific Trilogy the other day. There was a segment on the decision to invade Formosa or the Philippines.
Here is a quote:
“On August 18, 1944, Nimitz estimated that the operation (Invasion of Taiwan) would require 505,000 army troops, 154,000 marines, and 61,000 navy shore personnel.”
So, assuming that modern warfare doesn’t require the same number of troops and the Taiwanese will not “fight to the last man” as the Japanese would…let’s cut those numbers in half.
How is China going to move 325,000 troops across the Straits of Taiwan? It took the US three years of almost unstopped work to get the transports and landing craft to do that. Plus two years of hard earned practice. And no country has accomplished that since the Korean War—where we still had the men and equipment to do it.
No..China is not invading Taiwan any time soon.
Across the entire country?
That is not happening.
You could be right. I believe that GW Bush was a better fall-guy for the Uniparty to use to be the figurehead behind DHS, The Patriot Act and Iraq.
But I think it would be a step backwards for the Democrats, who clearly run Uniparty, unless they have something unpalatable to implement.
They’re getting a lot out of Mr. Potato Head. He’s not so reliable, though, and whoever is behind the scenes must be chafing to be out front.
So do I.
Here is the FR thread from last night
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4214170/posts?q=1&;page=1
The O’Keefe video is on X.
I watched it on Benny Johnson’s YouTube channel last night.
It is pretty entertaining. O’Keefe pretends to be a gay guy again out on a first date with the guy from the White House.
When he beat McLame in 2008 the Minority voter turn out in my area (Western VA.) was huge. In the 2012 it wasn't quite as big, and I am certain there was cheating/fraud. But let's be honest Mittens was a poor candidate. The only reason I voted for him was he wasn't Bammy.
I suppose I also don’t even understand your disagreement. Do you think that if Trump is forced out, the Democrats will WANT to drag Biden’s sorry ass across the finish line?I think it depends on who the alternative is. Harris is a nonstarter. Newsom is a possibility, but there is a chance they would run someone like Hochul, Whitmer, or Kotek. Kotek ticks off three boxes for them. The right age, Woman, and openly gay.
Trump winning the election was not a black swan event. Every aspect of the election was well known...only 2 possible outcomes
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