Add CCP invades Taiwan.
I was reading the third book in Ian Toll’s War in the Pacific Trilogy the other day. There was a segment on the decision to invade Formosa or the Philippines.
Here is a quote:
“On August 18, 1944, Nimitz estimated that the operation (Invasion of Taiwan) would require 505,000 army troops, 154,000 marines, and 61,000 navy shore personnel.”
So, assuming that modern warfare doesn’t require the same number of troops and the Taiwanese will not “fight to the last man” as the Japanese would…let’s cut those numbers in half.
How is China going to move 325,000 troops across the Straits of Taiwan? It took the US three years of almost unstopped work to get the transports and landing craft to do that. Plus two years of hard earned practice. And no country has accomplished that since the Korean War—where we still had the men and equipment to do it.
No..China is not invading Taiwan any time soon.