It’s going to be done through attrition. It’s going to take decades. They will transition gas station with electric stations. Eventually it will be difficult to find gas. And then it will be complete. We all here will be dead. I’d say around 2050 it will be over. I’d be 81. We don’t have longevity in mt family.
The current trajectory might be in the direction that you are predicting. But the political will to keep imposing the government idiots' solutions to non-existent problems will likely waiver causing the actual future to be unpredictable. Our current infrastructure cannot support "transitioning" to electric vehicles without $Trillions being spent on increased generation and transmission capacity. The country is already essentially bankrupt. It is likely just not going to happen.
I don’t see a complete replacement of ICE by EVs, even over decades. Pushback is already starting as more people see that EV adoption is going to cost lots of money, with no benefit to most of the ones doing the paying. Once enough people decide they don’t want EVs, and don’t want to pay for others’ EVs, politicians who support EVs are going to have a much tougher time getting elected.
Of course, if the U.S. government becomes totalitarian enough quickly enough, all bets are off.
Transitioning to electric cars will take a couple of things that may or may not happen.
1. Major improvements in battery technology. Charging time, capacity and safety are all issues that need to be addressed. Carbon nanotube technology holds promise, but scaling up the manufacturing has been troublesome.
2. Electrical Grid Upgrades/Modernization. The left has to get over their fear of nuclear energy. The only way electric cars will get widespread use is with nuclear power generation. With large nuclear facilities taking decades to come online, small nuclear reactors and innovative technologies like thorium reactors will have to be adopted to meet our future power needs. Solar and wind power will continue to be supplemental at best.
3. Charging standardization. Currently (see what I did there?) there are several worldwide charging interfaces that are incompatible with one another. Imagine pulling up to a gas pump and the nozzle doesn’t fit your car!
4. Charger availability. Charging at home is all well and good...as long as your home doesn’t catch fire...but if you are traveling across country, having charging stations where you need them, that actually function, that work with your vehicle (see #3) that have somewhat regulated pricing - there have already been reports of price gouging at some chargers - is critical to widespread adoption.
Some of these things could happen through market forces, some may require government intervention. The problem is, the current system isn’t all that broken. While environmentalists try their damndest to convince everyone that the sky is falling, looking around most people just don’t see it. It is much more likely that the Greenies are just tools of those who would like to wrest power from those whose fortunes are base on the mis-labeled fossil fuels. The environmental movement has more to do with control and power than protecting the earth.