Posted on 10/19/2023 5:52:22 AM PDT by MtnClimber
Not saying it will happen under Erdogan, but he is setting the table for it.
I take your point. However I believe Erdogan is just creating wavelets to appear relevant
“Think Abrams Accord”
‘Abraham Accords’
Where do the electronics come from that guide these drones?
To answer Hanson's question, I don't see that Iran is in danger from the US.
The Iranians learned they are safe when the US failed to assist the Shah in mounting the Ayatollahs and their Muslime supporters on posts alongside all roads leading to Tehran.
Terrorist Iran has known it is safe for a half Century.
Have you have ever read Alas, Babylon by Pat Frank? I’d highly recommend the book.
I usually agree with VHD, but there is no way this current administration is going to hit Iran. They will play both sides on this one.
I do not see any real reason to rush into Gaza. Hamas is contained. A hasty ground invasion will just cause more death and destruction of children. Leading to more negative press/protests against Israel throughout the world.
Surgical strikes and special forces could eliminate most of the issues.
If Israel is fighting in Gaza, West Bank, Golan Heights and Southern Lebanon simultaneously, Netanyahu may very well take the opportunity to do as much damage to Iran as possible in a preemptive attack. He might be forced to as a way of interdicting the support for Iran’s minions in his multifront war. I fear whatever the idiots in DC do, they will only dangerously muck it up further.
Gaza is just a side show.
The Iranian strategy is to destroy the IDF with Hezbollah with invasion from Syria and Lebanon.
Many nations may want to go to war, but don’t have the money or capability to do so, which is why they support terrorist organizations, that and “plausible deniability”.
So let us agree that Iran wants conflict in the middle east, the question then is do they want conflict with Western Nations, the United States in particular.
Now while Biden may bend the knee for Iran on some things (which I believe is more because of the bribes Iran has given to the Biden machine then any ideological reason) there are some things that an Iran attack on Americans that Biden can protect Iran on.
Iran could get the first shot and may very well damage or sink one (or more) of our capital ship but even Biden could not fight the public desire for retaliation so the response would be fast, furious and overwhelming anything Iran could defend against, ending Iran as a functioning nation.
Iran has to know this, and unless they are truly insane (which I don’t) they will find other ways to advance their cause without bringing and end to Iran.
(Reminder - this is only an opinion, you are free to disagree)
How do you surgically strike tunnels buried deep, with entries in hospitals, and who knows where?
Armageddon Nuclear War
That’s where this all ends up
It’s just a matter of time
You know it I know it
Last I read there are 2.3 million people in Gaza. As much as everyone has called for revenge over the last week or so, you are not going to kill off every terrorist in Gaza. Unless the Israelis commit genocide.
Which then even the USA and Britain may not be able to stand by them. Plus they would be guilty of the same thing the Nazis were in WWII.
Hezbollah is definetly more of a threat because they have two countries to work out of Lebanon and Syria. Plus three have roughly three times the amount of soldiers and arms.
Iran is not going to directly attack Israel because IF they did the IDF air force would destroy their facilities. Saudi Arabia would probably even let them fly across their airspace. The kingdom is just as afraid of the Mullahs as the Zionists.
No one is going to invade Iran. It is way too mountainous. It would be ten times worse than Afghanistan.
The other issue with Iran is that they have now increased their oil production because we are no longer enforcing sanctions. This brings in much more revenue than the 6 billion Biden gave them. FYI, Biden also has now relaxed oil sanctions on Venezuela. China buys a lot of the Iranian oil.
We will end up buying a lot of the Venezuela oil.
Joe Biden will NOT strike Iran for any reason, he will probably have C-130’s drop hundreds of Pallets of CASH.
Just yesterday the IDF destroyed an apartment block in southern Gaza. Maybe there were Hamas leaders living there. Maybe it had an entrance to one of the tunnel networks. Most likely both.
I am sure there are entrances like you stated under hospitals, schools, orphanages, supermarkets, and any other place designed to cause collateral damage and bad publicity.
However, it is my understanding that most of the smuggling tunnels come in from the Egypt side. They have bunker buster bombs that can penetrate into the ground deep enough to destroy the entrances to most of the tunnels.
Yes, I believe they need to send in troops. However, flattening the entire Gaza strip and killing 100m people will cause WWIII.
Iran exports the majority of their oil from ONE island in the gulf. Destroy that island and their oil sales drop about 80%.
The issue is that then oil goes to $120-150/bbl again. Unless the rest of OPEC can increase production.
We could also cripple their internal economy again by destroying the refineries. They already have to import gasoline and diesel for their domestic supply.
.
All Iran needs to do is nothing.
Nothing permits Hamas and other Sunni Palestinian forces to decline in capability and reputation while Iran’s wholly-owned subsidiaries Hezbollah and Syrian Ba’ath to rise in status as the sane and effective force of Arab nationalism in the Levant.
Nothing permits the loss of prestige of their rivals Erdogan and the Saudi and gulf monarchs.
Doing something, on the other hand - disaster. Iran is mostly free of EU sanctions; something ends that quickly. Israel has spent the last 40 years building stand-off weaponry and sabotage capability against Iran - flipping the switch on that will be very painful. And of course anything that sounds in a direct attack on US forces means the US will take out the Iranian anti-aircraft defense system (something Israel is probably not up to) but which will enable Israeli bomb runs over Tehran trivial.
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