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Putin Is Running Out of Options in Ukraine
Foreign Affairs ^ | 25th July 2023 | Lawrence Freedman

Posted on 07/25/2023 2:35:20 AM PDT by Cronos

Governments start wars in pursuit of various objectives, from conquering territory to changing the regime of a hostile state. Once a war begins, the stakes are immediately raised. It is one of the paradoxes of war that even as its original objectives drift out of reach or are cast aside, the necessity of not being seen as the loser only grows in importance—such importance, in fact, that even if winning is no longer possible, governments will still persevere to show that they have not been beaten.

...All of these dynamics are evident in Russia’s war against Ukraine. r Putin set as his objectives the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine. - By the first, he meant regime change, in which case the war has clearly been a failure. - As for demilitarization, Ukraine is on its way to becoming the most militarized country in Europe. - Many of the Russian speakers in Ukraine on whose behalf Putin claimed to be acting now prefer to speak Ukrainian, while the Russian-speaking areas of the Donbas have been battered, deindustrialized, and depopulated because of this ruinous war.

...Russian forces have failed to take complete control of any of the four oblasts that Putin claimed for Russia in September2022. Much of the ground initially seized after the full-scale invasion has been relinquished..

Putin is not close to achieving any of his war aims while the price of his gambit grows ever steeper.

...Being stuck with bits and pieces of Ukrainian territory with hostile populations, massive reconstruction bills, and long frontlines with an undefeated Ukraine, would not look like a big win—especially when set against the many casualties incurred by Russian forces, the degradation of the Russian army, the sputtering Russian economy, and the knock to Russia’s standing as a great and influential power.

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignaffairs.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Russia; Ukraine
KEYWORDS: asplanned; cfr; ithoughtrussiawon; lawrencefreedman; putincantwin; putingenius; runningoutoftargets; sayswho
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To: Skwor

He lost any options of getting out without egg on his face back in March 2022 When he lost the battle of Hostomel and Kyiv in March 2022, he should have retreated to the DPR/LPR. But he didn’t.

he had a second chance in June when he lost the battle for Mykolaiv, closing off any chance of making Ukraine land-locked. But he didn’t.

he had a third chance in September when he lost huge chunks of territory east of Kherson, closing off any chance of taking Ukraine east of the Dnieper. But he didn’t.

he had a fourth chance in November when he lost the battle for Kherson. But he didn’t.

he had a fifth chance in April this year when he gained Bakhmut - the first victory in 10 months (at a huge cost). he could have declared mission accomplished and left. But he didn’t.

Putin is the one prolonging the war as he has no out


61 posted on 07/26/2023 2:13:53 AM PDT by Cronos
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To: Cronos

Really ? Name them.


62 posted on 07/26/2023 2:36:56 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (America Owes Anita Bryant An Enormous Apology)
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To: Cronos

Hahaha ! Breakfast spam.


63 posted on 07/26/2023 2:39:15 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (America Owes Anita Bryant An Enormous Apology)
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To: Cronos

Thanks for posting from the Council on Foreign Relation’s prime propaganda organ!

Always good to know the globalists’ latest spin!


64 posted on 07/26/2023 2:42:15 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker

Nah, it’s the basic facts - Putin has lost in each of his plans

Plan A - vassalize Ukraine - failed in March 2022 with the Russian losses at the battles of Hostomel and Kyiv

Plan B - landlock Ukraine - failed at Mykolaiv in Jun 2022

Plan C - take left-bank Ukraine east of the Dnieper - failed Sep 2022

Plan D - control Kherson - failed Nov 2022


65 posted on 07/26/2023 3:29:24 AM PDT by Cronos
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To: fieldmarshaldj

your posts on Democratic underground? By which of your nicknames?


66 posted on 07/26/2023 3:30:01 AM PDT by Cronos
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To: Cronos

List the names of the prominent elected Demonrats who support Russia/Putin.

I’ll let you know that if a Demonrat deviates from not supporting the Sodomite flag and The Ukraine flag side by side as globalist-Sodomite virtue signaling, they’re likely to be read out of the party.

I’ll be awaiting that list of names of Demonrats.


67 posted on 07/26/2023 3:35:48 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (America Owes Anita Bryant An Enormous Apology)
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To: Cronos

The basic facts are that Foreign Affairs is the flagship publication of the CFR, which is one of the primary organizations for imposing globalist interests and desires on the world.

Good to hear what their latest spin is!


68 posted on 07/26/2023 4:02:00 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: fieldmarshaldj
--- "Curious that if an anti-globalist makes a reply to the Sorosbot/Schwarzbot/Zelenskybot warmonger trolls, no matter how innocuous, they squeal like stuck pigs to have the comment zotted by the mods and cite JimRob’s recent edict on “no personal attacks.” Yet the warmonger leftist trolls here make some of the most disgusting, vile and incendiary comments against well-respected posters and their filth is allowed to stand unmolested. There's a reason why many posters have chosen to leave here with this two-tiered system, sadly."

I re-copy your comment in its entirety, worthy as it is as an objective view to things.

We can disagree, and yet not "squeal like stuck pigs" or similar, but especially on two threads -- daily and promotional, since anyone can go to the URLs always sourced for themsleves -- two things are evident. Multiple self-posting and, as you observed, playing the "mods" as a part of their non-debate, non-discussion threads.

I suspect there is more to their stances than simple political leaning. One regularly cites an individual who actually endorsed Biden against Trump as well as other non-conservative stances, and another simply swamps a thread with prepared comments which could only have been :staged" in advance. I think behind their antics is one goal -- politick to support the massive funding of the Z-government, as what Lloyd Austin called a "weapon" against Russia. Ergo a proxy war, now involving all of NATO in an essentially and officially non-NATO event. It is stupid. long term, as NATO is growing but weakening at the very same time.

You used the word "warmonger." From the AUMF in 2001-2, which dealt specifically with the attack in NYC, warmongering has indeed been ongoing. A tally of the wars -- police actions, kinetic actions and such -- are many, and have cause a massive rise in US debt, now at an essentially unpayable level. The interest on that debt alone is rising to become the largest line item of the US national budget. Few are reaping handsome rewards, and that is at this point criminal.

As one asks a "warmonger" of today which wars the unoted States has ACTUALLY won and which resulted in an abiding peace, there comes invective and evasion as reply. But no proof that the trillions expended to "project" American power and influence have actually accomplished anything positive and permanent. And yet a few get rewarded. This is not the measure of a conservative's stance or goals. Advancing liberty long term is. For all.

This seems why on those two threads in particular, a relatively new behavior -- crying to "mommy" -- has become a rhetorical weapon of choice. It is no longer debate nor discussion. It is, to my view, open therapy for some warmongers, as you use the term, who have no regard for the massive increase in debt, the weakening of the economy as more and more Americans fall into greater stress, and is essentially -- yes -- "liberal" or aligned with the current Biden goals.

Ergo no problem citing a Biden-endorsing voice in "war" threads. Being an "anti-globalist" is not a bad thing, is it? Being for rationality in our budgeting is not a bad thing? Being for what some Republicans of note have called the "forever wars" is not a conservative's stance. It is akin to Biden's "lead the liberal world order." And it has settled into FR as a e-locale to further its unipolar goals. But given the response by some Freepers, it isn't being easily accepted here.

Surprise. Conservatives can disagree, debate and discuss. But they don't run "crying to mommy" after all, being adults. Liberals and neocons, especially those portraying themselves as conservative while delivering up Democrat and RINO talking points, seem to though, don't they?

The simple answer --- don't abandon the field to them. They are easily dulled in their game, such that their last stratagem will be to simply ignore debate and disagreement and discussion.

69 posted on 07/26/2023 4:53:52 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: Cronos

“That’s pure speculation”

I was being nice.

If I were being direct I’d have said. “How can otherwise seemingly reasonable people be fooled into compliance with a corrupt government that is looting the treasury not once, but twice”

Given the above, indignance about Russia invading Ukraine (and you ignore salient facts about why it is occurring - and you know you are) rings hollow.

What is not speculation is that this war is intended to be a money hose where every corrupt politician gets a turn to gulp millions of dollars for themselves. Biden keeps the hose flowing because he is threatened with exposure of his previous bribery.

So if you would kindly refrain from supporting WWIII, I for one would appreciate it. Please also try not to be so gullible. It is not patriotic to give hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine.


70 posted on 07/26/2023 5:11:45 AM PDT by RFEngineer
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To: fieldmarshaldj
It is interesting on this single thread Cronos challenged individually different Freepers whose views would align with his. So who is the conservative, or are all conservatives but who disagree one with another?

"Constantly wrong" is not a measure of views, as views change with changing events. But I have had several FR individuals use the same gambit -- a slur, which did not cause me to complain the the mods because I don't care -- "Tell that to your folks in St. Peterburg."

I think the game here is simple. Some assert there are only two possible stances. 1) Pro-Z, and if not, by definition one defaults to 2) pro-P. That is the gambit of this 22 year long "war on terror" worldwide.

Any who would disagree and posit the "not my circus and not my clowns" MUST default to their assigned and very fake pro-P role, because the pro-Z argument can only succeed by limiting discussion and debate to two sides. $32,000,000,000,000.00 and rising fast. With the interest due on that alone, this will shortly become an enormous threat to the US, within our own borders, alongside the massive and invading influx of migrants across an undefended southern border. To the pro-Z folks, not nearly as important as their war -- with two non-NATO nations.

For this, I again cite Robinson;s text which those who want to cite him only by URL --- "a difference of opinion whether or not the US government should be involved in a controversial foreign war where we were not attacked."

That, in a clear and concise phrase, says it. We were not attacked.

We have been attacked, however, by lockdowns for a relatively minor illness, by attempts at mandated injections, PR for digital IDs, slurs aimed at the simple words "male America great again," and now the tens of billions expended in an officially non-NATO war.

This is why it becomes some measure of debate to accuse another in a thread of "Tell that to your folks in St. Peterburg." Or, in my case, actually writing from there. That's the sum and substance of this, in the larger frame of lunacy.

$32,000,000,000,000.00 and rising fast.

As my tagline suggests, it is time and past time to "degrow government."

71 posted on 07/26/2023 5:14:43 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

The war in Ukraine is not a conservative issue.

The issue is brought by isolationists, neo isolationists, who never look beyond their county lines to see the world.

The neo isolationists try to make the war a conservative issue by claiming the war is a proBiden issue and therefore a conservative issue. Anyone not Anti war is tarred with the Pro Biden brush. Being naive, they believe their own arguments


72 posted on 07/26/2023 5:22:40 AM PDT by bert ( (KWE. NP. N.C. +12) Joe Biden is a kleptocrat)
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To: Cronos

“Secondly - even if NATO stops now, the Ukrainians have, thanks to Putin’s invasion, discovered their national identity.”

Nonsense. Many Ukrainians are now identifying with their host countries and will never come back.

If NATO stopped the billions today, the war would be over tomorrow, and negotiations could start the day after that this has the added benefit of stopping the carnage of Ukrainians who have (like many Americans) been duped by their leaders into becoming a puppet state.

Do you think Zelensky, his military leadership and their collective cronies “have disvovered their Ukrainian identity” by stashing billions of dollars for the time (in the near future) they live off of their Swiss bank accounts in grand style nowhere near their “beloved Ukraine”

Ukraine will never be a functional state, as if it ever was post-cold war.


73 posted on 07/26/2023 5:29:35 AM PDT by RFEngineer
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To: 9YearLurker

FactS implies a plural.

The basic facts are that Putin has lost in each of his plans

Plan A - vassalize Ukraine - failed in March 2022 with the Russian losses at the battles of Hostomel and Kyiv

Plan B - landlock Ukraine - failed at Mykolaiv in Jun 2022

Plan C - take left-bank Ukraine east of the Dnieper - failed Sep 2022

Plan D - control Kherson - failed Nov 2022


74 posted on 07/26/2023 5:30:54 AM PDT by Cronos
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Let’s go with Obama with his caught remarks that he’d have more leverage after 2012,

Then Biden’s ties - he withdrew American advisors in January 2022 and tried to get Zelensky to leave.

And Biden’s delays in getting the Ukrainians enough weaponry to win last year.


75 posted on 07/26/2023 5:33:29 AM PDT by Cronos
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To: bert
--- "The war in Ukraine is not a conservative issue."

Demonstrably "The war in Ukraine is" between two non-NATO nations.

--- "The issue is brought by isolationists, neo isolationists, who never look beyond their county lines to see the world."

Given your definitions, I am not any sort of isolationist. Apparently neither are you. I see the world in great complexity, having worked and lived in twelve different nations, mostly in Europe, and lived as a legal resident in Germany for decades before returning to the US. I don't feel responsible to go into ever greater debt to "fix" the world as I see fit. That is a neo-con's stance, as a visit to the Institute for War in Washington DC might show.

--- "The neo isolationists try to make the war a conservative issue by claiming the war is a proBiden issue and therefore a conservative issue. Anyone not Anti war is tarred with the Pro Biden brush. Being naive, they believe their own arguments"

The inverse of your argument may be structured exactly the same way. Therefore, asserting someone naive for not agreeing with you is a moot point.

And so I return to your opening gambit: "The war in Ukraine is not a conservative issue." Agreed. It is not and should not be an issue for conservatives. Funding it with tens of billions USD should be.

The massive debt should be a conservative issue. Funding a non-NATO war with tens of billions of USD and tacking that on to the rapidly growing US debt should be a conservative's stance, as I see it.

76 posted on 07/26/2023 5:39:51 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

Some excellent points there. As I’ve said many times, it’s unfortunate, not to mention bizarre, that the mods and JR allow this garbage, and it is garbage, to be spammed ad infinitum on this website by the same small group of troublemakers. That their “reference sites” and articles are almost uniformally of the left (or “NeoCon”, which has already jumped into bed with the Demonrats and the pedo pervert in the White House) and allowed to stand without either being quickly removed, accounts suspended, or even zotted.

It took great pains on a single occasion when one of the cretins, who got into a religious thread and decided to drop the “F” bomb (in all its glory), when referencing this Russia-Ukraine subject, to get said post removed. All the while some other account was activated, rarely used, to explicitly post Sodomite movie porn pic against my replies - and when I replied to denounce the trash and the rarely-posting troll, it was my reply (which contained nothing but asking how and why they’d post such trash on FR) and not the porn pics that was removed (and said troll copied and pasted the same garbage on several occasions in rapid succession).

Sadly, one of the trolls did arrogantly reply to me that they won’t be gotten rid of by management because they pay into the coffers and don’t want to lose that $$. If you’ve noticed, FR has just barely been reaching fundraising goals, and that because there’s been a dropoff in regular contributions. Clearly their presence is producing diminishing returns, but yet they remain. They’re happy to insult JimRob’s Conservative-supporting website and the overwhelming number of FReepers that oppose their agenda (by a 91-7% margin in a poll conducted here), yet they hide behind JimRob’s edict (which they refuse to abide by) about no abusive posts/personal attacks. Again, the hypocrisy is stunning.

Much like with The Ukraine situation, Zelensky could end the madness today and seek peace. Administration here could remove the problem people, everybody here knows who they are. The individual in this thread alone is a European troll from Poland, one who has no business coming on an American website and insulting us and spamming globalist propaganda. I don’t necessarily oppose foreigners posting here, but not if they’re conducting themselves and engaged in such obvious disinformation campaigns on behalf of Soros/Schwarz, et al.


77 posted on 07/26/2023 5:43:32 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (America Owes Anita Bryant An Enormous Apology)
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

Again, excellent points. I’ll merely say that $32 trillion figure is quite probably erroneous. It may, in fact, be at or above $100 trillion, and we will have achieved full Cloward-Piven (overloading the system on spending across the board), and have long passed the point that we can ever repay this debt and are merely waiting for the full crash destroying the American economy and great Marxist “reset.”


78 posted on 07/26/2023 5:49:37 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (America Owes Anita Bryant An Enormous Apology)
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

Do not confuse expense with investment

Investment pays off in the future. Assisting the Ukraine and much of the world with the extermination of the Russian federation is a fantastic payoff for a little strategic debt


79 posted on 07/26/2023 5:52:09 AM PDT by bert ( (KWE. NP. N.C. +12) Joe Biden is a kleptocrat)
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To: Cronos

Uh-uh, not a valid answer. Zero does not support Russia, and whatever cryptic remarks he made 12-13 YEARS ago no longer applies. As for Plugs the Pedo, he’s sending billions and weaponry, so he clearly supports the globalist Zelensky. That he’s not doing it fast enough for your liking doesn’t change the fact.

Try again. Name any present Demonrat elected official who supports Russia/Putin. And you can’t cite RFK, Jr., as he is not an elected official, and he merely wants peace, and in taking the stance for peace, he is actively denounced by the Demonrat warmongers.

So you can’t cite one, because this is a central tenet of the party to support Zelensky/The Ukraine. Next time when you try to pull the “you’re a Demonrat” insult, you’d better get your facts in order. You’re the one posting the Demonrat globalist position supporting intervention (along with fully discredited and unsupported RINO globalist warmongers who command as much respect as the Bushes and the Cheneys today).


80 posted on 07/26/2023 5:58:33 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (America Owes Anita Bryant An Enormous Apology)
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