Posted on 07/25/2023 2:35:20 AM PDT by Cronos
Governments start wars in pursuit of various objectives, from conquering territory to changing the regime of a hostile state. Once a war begins, the stakes are immediately raised. It is one of the paradoxes of war that even as its original objectives drift out of reach or are cast aside, the necessity of not being seen as the loser only grows in importance—such importance, in fact, that even if winning is no longer possible, governments will still persevere to show that they have not been beaten.
...All of these dynamics are evident in Russia’s war against Ukraine. r Putin set as his objectives the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine. - By the first, he meant regime change, in which case the war has clearly been a failure. - As for demilitarization, Ukraine is on its way to becoming the most militarized country in Europe. - Many of the Russian speakers in Ukraine on whose behalf Putin claimed to be acting now prefer to speak Ukrainian, while the Russian-speaking areas of the Donbas have been battered, deindustrialized, and depopulated because of this ruinous war.
...Russian forces have failed to take complete control of any of the four oblasts that Putin claimed for Russia in September2022. Much of the ground initially seized after the full-scale invasion has been relinquished..
Putin is not close to achieving any of his war aims while the price of his gambit grows ever steeper.
...Being stuck with bits and pieces of Ukrainian territory with hostile populations, massive reconstruction bills, and long frontlines with an undefeated Ukraine, would not look like a big win—especially when set against the many casualties incurred by Russian forces, the degradation of the Russian army, the sputtering Russian economy, and the knock to Russia’s standing as a great and influential power.
(Excerpt) Read more at foreignaffairs.com ...
One way out of such a dilemma might be for Putin to get his propagandists to concoct a story to explain why, despite the appearance of loss, Russia has in fact won. The simplest story he can tell is that Russia’s war is not with Ukraine, but with NATO. The Kremlin has already told this story to explain Russian setbacks and show how Ukraine is acting as an agent of the West. The narrative could be turned into a heroic one about how, against all odds, Russia survived the wrath of world’s mightiest alliance. But this story is also, from a Russian perspective, suboptimal because if Russia were truly at war with NATO, it would have no chance of victory. As it is, every new initiative by NATO countries in support of Ukraine is followed by dire warnings from Moscow, usually from the broken record that is former president Dmitri Medvedev, of the terrible, unspecified retribution to follow.
Wish he would do it. But Putin is a "Strong Man" in the midst of a "Strong Man Country", Russia. Backing down would be the end of him and he knows it.
Please pray God's mercy on this situation that is escalating rapidly with the fool we have in the White House.
the thing is - it’s already too late. This is like Nicholas II in WWI —> today Russia is at best at an impasse, they can’t win more territory and can hold on to what they have at great expense, if at all.
Prigozhin walking into Rostov-on-Don and going unimpeded hundreds of kms towards Moscow shows that Putin’s hold is vaporware, similar to Ceausescu’s end
On several occasions he has backed down and just given the order to the propaganda services to invent a new reality.
He declared that Kharkov is Russia forever, then Ukrainians kicked him out of there and everything went on as if nothing happened.
Prigozhin marched on Moscow and shot down 7 Russian military aircraft, one of them a command aircraft with a crew of 8. He wasn’t crushed and the TV is saying nothing happened.
Putin can just declare “Mission Accomplished” and have his TV blast that.
At last some common sense in my FR morning read, instead of the usual propaganda. Thank you.
I took a look at that damage to the Cathedral in Odessa.
Man, that wasn’t any air defense missile the Ukies have. It took a big warhead to do that much damage. The Russians are lying through their teeth (like usual).
I always wondered how people could stay in the Demonrat Party. You just answered why.
What have you been smoking RW Madman? Putin is running out of options as reported.
You have anything factual with which you can counter the statements here?
No? Just as I thought
Why do you stay in the Democrat Party, Field Marshall Zhukov?
It is probably worth keeping in mind that Foreign Affairs is the mouthpiece for the council on foreign relations…
Putin has reason to invade Ukraine, not that I agree with the invasion, but you must understad the enemy and his postion/logic.
THe USA has bioweapon research lans in Ukraine and they were cause fr great concern:
See this link for a summary:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1679658916932616194
The counteroffensive is dead in the water. What happens next month when the cluster bombs run out? The Russians went from 90,000 troops in the field in 2/22 to 750,000 today. Even Reznikov said yesterday that Ukraine couldn’t “win” before the summer of ‘24 IF they get F 16s. The Russians have two options. They can continue consolidating their new territories in Donbas or fight WWIII that the maniac in DC started while trying to save their Uke corruption gravy train.
This war and where it’s at is all propaganda and opinions. Hard believe which side and any reporting.
NAFO has locked itself into a false dilemma.
The idea was that in case of the successful Azov offensive (why did the believe it is going to be successful is a separate question) they would be able to impose their desired outcomes on Russia.
In case of the unsuccessful offensive they thought there would be “peace talks” and a “frozen conflict”.
Did anyone think that Russia might have other ideas?
Headlines: Putin has few options left. Ukraine is loosing the war. Russia looses territory every day. Russia is peak manufacturing of war goods, victory in sight.
It’s all BS. This is what it is:
It is a giant trench warfare with little movement consuming people and military supplies at a freighting rate. It’s WW1 with more modern ground equipment, and no capable air force. It’s a war that starves other nations, destroys economies, and has no end in sight. It’s a war that threatens global thermal nuclear exchange because of dirty American politicians and greedy Russian leaders, and one former NAZI.
The end will come when peace is the only option left for both groups. Sometime around Jan 2024. Both sides need a negotiation at that point.
“Autocracies don’t have the feedback mechanism, and dig themselves in by believing that the advantage of autocracy is bold and decisive decision-making."This comment also applies in a cockeyed way to leadership that is autocratically bound up in an ideology like Marxism. No feedback mechanism because any feedback that deviates from the course of action prescribed by the ideology is not permitted. We see that in the Democrat Party in the U.S. There's a kneejerk reaction to protect the Party leader no matter what the crime...even though the party leader--Biden in this case--is a buffoon and a crook.
Does that mean Canada can invade the US because we have 600 million firearms in civilian hands that are a cause for great concern?
Maybe Cuba can invade America, too, over their great concern for whatever. Ditto for Mexico.
I have lost count, how many times now has he run out of options?
Sure seems like there are a lot of options to run out of.
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