Just so. The best way to succeed in negotiations is first to establish a position of strength. With Russia holding about 20% of Ukraine, they have done so. I don’t believe anyone seriously thought Russia would overtake all of Ukraine, a country almost the size of Texas, and that includes Putin. It was clear at the outset that this was the plan. When Biden decided to be the tough guy and keep the war going, the war became an artificially maintained rolling atrocity.
If, as the Putin assumed Zelensky would flee the capitol, then yes, sending a large portion of the Russian army to take Kyiv and decapitate the Ukrainian government, made sense. Argument that sending that column was some feint, is just moronic.
The documents indicate that elements of the 76th Airborne Division and Eastern Military District were ordered to depart Belarus and reach Kyiv within 18 hours against little resistance. Russian planners also placed riot police within the division's first column. "Riot police are not suitable to lead elements for a large maneuver force in a conventional force-on-force war because they are not trained to conduct combined arms or mechanized warfare. The decision to place riot police in the lead column violates Russian (or any normal) doctrine and indicates that Russian planners did not expect significant organized Ukrainian resistance," the ISW found.
“””I don’t believe anyone seriously thought Russia would overtake all of Ukraine, a country almost the size of Texas, and that includes Putin.”””
That was exactly the idea, take Kyiv in 3 days, Zelensky killed by the hunter/killer teams assigned to assassinate him, and then rule the nation and mop up any scattered units over a few weeks that refused to submit to Zelensky’s replacement.
The plan was to take the government, not travel all over the country fighting every little unit or outpost or stubborn Mayor.
So basically, they lost thousands trying to take Kiev just for fun.
Russia is currently holding about 15% of Ukraine. This is down from the 27% it controlled on March 15, 2022.
“It was clear at the outset that this was the plan”
Nope. The plan was to decapitate Ukraine by striking at the capital and capturing the President.
A good plan if it had worked. But it didn’t due to flawed Russian logistics, planning and intelligence.