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Will arresting Trump help him or hurt him?
Hotair ^ | 03/20/2023 | John Sexton

Posted on 03/20/2023 9:34:09 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Will indicting and arresting Trump drag him down or only make him stronger. At a Kennedy Center event last night, Chris Rock joked that it was the latter:

‘Are you guys really going to arrest Trump?,’ he asked the crowd, which included lawmakers like Nancy Pelosi and several officials who serve in the Biden administration.

‘Do you know this is only going to make him more popular. It’s like arresting Tupac. He’s just gonna sell more records. Are you stupid?,’ Rock continued as the crowd roared with laughter.

Rock noted Trump had ‘f****** a porn star and paid off someone so his wife couldn’t find out. That’s romantic.’

‘We’ve all been cheated on. Don’t you wish that the person that cheated on you paid off somebody so you wouldn’t find out?’ he added.

Today, Politico published a story today titled “Stop Overthinking It: An Indictment Would Be Bad For Trump.” Author Alexander Burns makes the opposite argument, i.e. an indictment/arrest might work up some of Trump’s fans but it won’t actually help him win an election.

Naturally, the question arises: Could this actually be good for Trump?

That thought generates itself by reflex in America’s political brain. It is a habit forged in 2016, when Trump defied countless terminal prognoses to defeat Hillary Clinton…

Trump has been unusually resilient against scandal over the years thanks to the unbreakable loyalty of voters who see him as their champion in the arena. My colleagues David Siders and Adam Wren reported that Republicans expect Trump to get a short-term boost from the indictment because it will energize his core supporters. That is probably true.

But those supporters are a minority of the country, as Republicans have learned the hard way several times over. Stimulating Trump’s personal following was not enough to save the House for his party in 2018 or to defend the White House and the Senate in 2020, or to summon a red wave in 2022.

Burns covers his bases by saying there’s no guarantee that Trump can’t win reelection. Still, he believes that riling up a shrinking base won’t be enough to get it done this time. At some point, you need to add people to your camp if you want to win. There’s no evidence this is doing that. On the contrary, I’m seeing people on the right argue explicitly that no one should join a Trump protest if he’s indicted.

FYI: The last time Trump’s biggest fans protested on his behalf, he left them all to rot in jail without so much as a penny from him in legal fees. Not a penny.

Shame on him for this. Do NOT go to a blue area and protest for this man. Ignore this.


pic.twitter.com/dnwnC6Uvyd

— Jesse Kelly (@JesseKellyDC) March 18, 2023

Good morning Friends!

Trump indictment eve … if this happens, stay away from organized protests.

No more political prisoners.

Pray🙏for President Trump and pray🙏for the USA. pic.twitter.com/qb7ZAu0quO

— Sheri FFT👠 (@FemalesForTrump) March 20, 2023

And, at least so far, it seems people are heeding that advice and staying away.

This is helpful. The number of people responding to Trump’s call to protest his possible indictment is very small so far. I sure hope media outlets will note just how tiny these protests have been, and give their viewers/readers a sense of scope and context.


https://t.co/i9QmiaJIf0

— Julián Castro (@JulianCastro) March 20, 2023

To be fair, nothing has happened yet. If there is going to be a big protest it will happen after the indictment/arrest. But there’s no sign so far of a huge groundswell of support for a mass protest over this.

For the most part, people on the right, whether supporting Trump or not, seem to be in agreement that this indictment looks like political grandstanding by a progressive DA looking for attention. At the same time, it’s not really much of a threat to Trump. Frankly, I think the most mileage he is likely to get out of this comes not from protests but from walking out of court with either a misdemeanor conviction or no conviction at all. Those are still the most likely outcomes.

Chris Rock’s take on the situation is definitely funnier but I think Burns is basically right that there’s no need to do 11-dimensional chess on this one. The indictment will hurt Trump somewhat but probably not in a way that creates much of a backlash.

My own take is that most people don’t really believe Trump when he denies sleeping with Stormy Daniels. Or maybe it’s more accurate to say many people decided they didn’t care. If it happened, it was part of his private life and not really a public matter so long as it was consensual, which it was.

Now Trump is on the other side of that coin. A lot of people probably still feel like this is his problem to deal with and not a national issue. That means it won’t keep many of his fans from voting for him again even if he’s convicted but also it won’t create much of a backlash because it’s still fundamentally about his private life. A progressive DA being a grandstanding progressive DA isn’t really that shocking anymore.

Speaking of which, it’s always possible the grand jury won’t indict at all.

Attorney Robert Costello, a longtime ally of Donald Trump, slammed the former president’s onetime fixer Michael Cohen on Monday, describing him as “totally unreliable” and calling him “far from solid evidence” in the New York criminal case against Trump.

Costello, who was previously a legal adviser to Cohen, testified to a Manhattan grand jury on Monday, and later told reporters he had close to 330 emails detailing meetings with Cohen, who made the $130,000 hush money payment to the porn actress Stormy Daniels during Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign over a sexual relationship that Daniels says they had. Trump has denied the affair, and Cohen alleges that he made the payment at Trump’s behest using campaign funds, a violation of campaign finance law…

“If they want to go after Donald Trump and they have solid evidence, so be it,” Costello said. “But Michael Cohen is far from solid evidence.”

It doesn’t look like it’s coming today so if it’s happening it will probably be tomorrow.



TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; US: New York
KEYWORDS: adulterertrump; alvinbragg; arrest; crookedtrump; lockhimup; stormydaniels; trump
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1 posted on 03/20/2023 9:34:09 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Good question.


2 posted on 03/20/2023 9:38:24 PM PDT by toddausauras (Trump Lake 2024....Go down swinging!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Just the thought that the far left, New Yawk turd rollers are thinking about arresting and indicting him brought me back into his camp. I had given up. Not anymore.


3 posted on 03/20/2023 9:39:09 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Free the J6 Heroes! Now! Heroic J6 Lives Matter. (HJ6LM))
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To: SeekAndFind
Obviously the trans GOPe intends on taking the spoils of a President Trump incarceration…. Pox on them and their progressive toadies.
4 posted on 03/20/2023 9:42:48 PM PDT by Just mythoughts (Psalm 2. Why do the heathen rage, and the people imagine a vain thing?)
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To: SeekAndFind

All the evil in the country wants to destroy Trump and if they arrest him, how would that not emboldened tens of millions of his supporters, and probably even a few million more?

Even some of the left have said this is out of line.


5 posted on 03/20/2023 9:47:37 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: SeekAndFind

“...but from walking out of court with either a misdemeanor conviction or no conviction at all.”

On the stormy payment, a misdemeanor is not possible. The statute of limitations has run on bringing misdemeanor charges. It’s felony or nothing.


6 posted on 03/20/2023 9:54:58 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: SeekAndFind

If he is arrested, he needs to survive the process until he is able to be released on bail. I don’t put anything past the Left.


7 posted on 03/20/2023 10:01:18 PM PDT by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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To: SeekAndFind

It will help, at least for a time. He has been through hell since 2015 and people see that. The worst thing he can do is continue sniping at opponents. He needs to focus on Bragg and the grand jury and the fact that the case has no real basis.


8 posted on 03/20/2023 10:01:23 PM PDT by Zack Attack
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To: SeekAndFind

It’ll give obnoxious never trumpers here who never changed stripes despite protestations a chance to bleat

Just look at them now

Disgusting clueless lemmings


9 posted on 03/20/2023 10:03:53 PM PDT by wardaddy (Truth is treason in the Empire of lies)
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To: dragnet2

10 posted on 03/20/2023 10:38:10 PM PDT by Bobalu (Unrepentant communists, NAZI’s and totalitarians of all stripe are bowing toward Davos)
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To: SeekAndFind
Will arresting Trump help him or hurt him?


11 posted on 03/20/2023 10:38:16 PM PDT by TigersEye (Woke is a cancer of the mind and humanity)
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To: null and void; aragorn; EnigmaticAnomaly; kalee; Kale; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; bgill; bitt; ...

p


12 posted on 03/20/2023 10:47:33 PM PDT by bitt (<img src=' 'width=40%>)
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t think he wants his image in the future stories and history to show him humiliated in handcuffs.

Most important stories have one iconic picture, positive or negative. Wright Brothers, D Day landings, Iwo Jima, man standing on the Moon and Armstrong’s boot print, JFK and Jackie smiling and waving from the convertible. Dems want to laugh at Trump in handcuffs. Unforgiveable.

He did so much to improve employment, tried to curb illegal immigration, cut down inflation and so much more. He showed courage that no politician had shown. He won at his first attempt at any level of public office and fought off more than a dozen well connected career politicians to even get nominated.

To have him look like Al Capone or someone like the organized crime bosses in handcuffs as his image is wrong.


13 posted on 03/21/2023 12:07:16 AM PDT by frank ballenger (You have summoned up a thundercloud. You're gonna hear from me. Anthem by Leonard Cohen)
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To: SeekAndFind
Two points to rebut Jesse Kelly's comments about the January 6 prisoners:

1. Trump does not flaunt his philanthropy. If he is helping out, he would not talk about it.
2. Money will not buy them out of jail. The legal process it what it is.

14 posted on 03/21/2023 1:07:28 AM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: SeekAndFind

“But there’s no sign so far of a huge groundswell of support for a mass protest over this.“

There was a gargantuan protest on 1/6 but try to find how big. AP reported 10,000. In a search that is the first number that comes up. Leftist protests are often tiny. Try to find mention of it.


15 posted on 03/21/2023 2:10:33 AM PDT by TalBlack (We have a Christian duty and a patriotic duty. God help us.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Did a sexual scandal help or hurt Bill Clinton?...and Clinton was actually guilty of crimes - perjury, obstruction of justice.

Trump is obviously not guilty of any crime here AND this is yet another chapter of the ongoing lawfare efforts against him. This is only going to help him. As for his supposedly “shrinking” fanbase....really? What evidence does the writer have to claim his support is shrinking? He’s had some of his highest polling results ever in recent weeks.

My bet is that charging him with this will only convince even more Hispanics and younger Black men that the Establishment is out to get him and that they’re afraid of him.....the Establishment that a lot of them despise.....


16 posted on 03/21/2023 2:42:44 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: Widget Jr

Exactly. The DC judges and DC Juries are corrupt as hell. Everybody knows it. What is wasting a bunch of money going to help given those kangaroo courts?

When Trump gets back in office, pardon them all, have them collectively sue the FIB and DOJ and then the Trump administration can admit the full guilt of both and cut them all big fat settlement checks from the government. That will both compensate them for the tyrannical punishments they suffered and will royally piss off Leftists.

Then the Trump administration can use that admission of guilt it made on behalf of the FIB and DOJ to clean house in both.


17 posted on 03/21/2023 2:47:03 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: SeekAndFind

One caveat would be that the left has a lot of folks swinging on rusty hinges. The Tupac analogy could send one over the edge.


18 posted on 03/21/2023 4:25:35 AM PDT by gundog (It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. )
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To: gundog

Trump has annoyed me from time to time. But if he has to go through this, as an American, I will stand with him and give him my vote when the time comes.

Get that, you commie swine?


19 posted on 03/21/2023 4:30:47 AM PDT by LibsRJerks
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To: toddausauras

It’s sure hurting RINOs. DeSantis’s aloofness is causing him to take major hits in credibility.


20 posted on 03/21/2023 5:09:58 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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