[Soul of the South]

“NC is almost 1/4 black and clearly a purple state. No surprise that Tillis is middle-of-the-road. He won in 2020 by <2%.”

The only reason Tillis won in 2020 was his Democrat opponent Cal Cunningham self destructed when it was revealed he was having an extramarital affair. Until that moment Cunningham was leading Tillis in the polls and favored to win.

Next time out Tillis will be begging for votes from the conservative GOP base that now hates him for his treachery. Demographics (liberals moving from the north, baby boomer conservative deaths, and rising numbers of minorities) will make the state even more purple by 2026 when Tillis faces the voters again.

[Zhang Fei]

[The only reason Tillis won in 2020 was his Democrat opponent Cal Cunningham self destructed when it was revealed he was having an extramarital affair. Until that moment Cunningham was leading Tillis in the polls and favored to win.

Next time out Tillis will be begging for votes from the conservative GOP base that now hates him for his treachery. Demographics (liberals moving from the north, baby boomer conservative deaths, and rising numbers of minorities) will make the state even more purple by 2026 when Tillis faces the voters again.]

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My impression about Tillis is that he has negative charisma, and his messaging is the opposite of skillful. The question is how he ever got the GOP nomination. You’d think just about any random schmoe could match his electoral performance, that his result comes from his own ineptitude, not any particular dislike of Republicans in NC. Ted Budd, with a 97% ACU rating (with 100% being a perfect conservative rating), won his Senate seat by >3% in 2022.

https://acu-ratings-pdfs.s3.amazonaws.com/ACU_Ratings_US-2021.pdf#page=44

And, unlike Tillis, he lacked the advantage of incumbency. Meanwhile, Tillis is at 68%, only a hair north of Dick Burr’s 61%.

https://acu-ratings-pdfs.s3.amazonaws.com/ACU_Ratings_US-2021.pdf#page=13