Russian Black Fleet Heads to Sea

Russian Navy ships and submarines have suddenly left their base at Novorossiysk, in the Black Sea, en-masse. This is highly unusual and many fear that this is a change in tactics. The Western Press keeps trying to paint Russia as losing the war so, quite frankly, they can get more people to volunteer to join the military if they think they are on the winning side. There is no question that the US and Russia are waging the most intense confrontation since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Our model on that confrontation aligned with our major war model showing that 2014 was the end of that period and the beginning of this new period as we head into World War III.

The hardliners are not happy in Russia and President Vladimir Putin is being pushed into a corner. Either he gets more aggressive, or there could be a coup by May. The hardliners are using nuclear threats and other escalations in what they know is now really a proxy war of the USA and NATO against Russia using Ukraine as the pawn they are willing to sacrifice. NATO troops will not venture in until the last Ukrainian dies on the battlefield.

Washington is wielding its own array of pressures to paint Putin as a loser as Octavian did to Mark Antony. The good news is that, so far, both strategies have been very carefully calibrated. The bad news is that America and Russia are still on a collision course because the end goal is actually to conquer Russia.

Sweden has now escalated its draft. Poland is building its army of up to 250,000 men. All of this is based on the expectation that Ukraine can reduce the Russian army and that will make it a cakewalk to invade Russia and drive tanks from Poland right into Moscow.

Sweden was preparing by boosting military spending by around 40% over the five years from 2016 and doubling the numbers conscripted into the armed forces as it looks to beef up its defence amid growing tensions with Russia post-2014. Meanwhile, France, Italy, Latvia and Lithuania scrapped conscription as they concluded that large-scale defence was no longer necessary before 2014, but now they have all reversed policies.

The Joe Biden administration pledged to defend “every inch” of Nato territory. That has complicated matters for Putin to interfere with Ukraine’s supply lines through Romania and Poland. The Western Press keeps pitching the same propaganda that Putin is spiralling toward defeat in Ukraine and may not survive that outcome politically. Yet I know that the hardliners are there and if Putin does not become more aggressive, they may indeed replace him by May and then holy hell will break loose.

Putin is warning Washington as well as Kyiv that attacks on those territories are tantamount to attacks on Russia itself. The Biden administration has opted not to listen to anything from Putin and only seeks war instructing Zelensky to sacrifice his own people and to reject any peace talks whatsoever. If the US hands Zelensky long-range missiles, he will use them to attack mainland Russia and that will begin World War III.

EVERY President throughout my entire life has always sought peace. The Biden Administration and NATO only talk about pushing war. NEVER have I ever witnessed such irresponsible leadership for this is really about Climate Change.

Martins linked article from Naval News:

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/01/sudden-surge-in-russian-navy-ships-and-submarines-in-black-sea/

Sudden Surge In Russian Navy Ships And Submarines In Black Sea

Ukrainian forces will be monitoring a sudden movement of Russian warships and submarines out of their base of Novorossiysk. The naval base, near the Kerch Bridge, is further from Ukrainian controlled coast than the famous base at Sevastopol. Yet the unusual movement may be important.

H I Sutton 11 Jan 2023

This morning Russian Navy ships and submarines left their base at Novorossiysk, in the Black Sea, en-masse. This is highly unusual and may indicate ongoing operations.
Sources seen by Naval News confirm the exodus. The group included the Project 11711 Ivan Gren class landing ship, Pyotr Morgunov, the largest amphibious ship in the Black Sea.
It also contained all three Project 636.3 Improved-Kilo class submarines which were present at the base. Analysis suggests that other warships were also sailing, leaving only a few warships and support vessels in the port. It is likely the most empty that Novorossiysk has been in many months.
Recently Pyotr Morgunov has been to carry supplies from Russia to Sevastopol following the October 8 2022 Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Bridge. Although Russia has managed some repairs, the bridge remains at limited capacity. So the Russian Navy’s landing ships have been pressed into service as transports. However the simultaneous sailing of the submarines suggests that this may be more than a resupply mission.
Possible Reaction To Ukrainian Threat

One explanation might be that the mass exit may be a drill to test the crews’ readiness. Or possibly a precaution against an incoming threat.
The base has not, so far, been within range of Ukrainian aerial drones. On the other hand, despite its distance from Ukrainian controlled coast, it is within range of Ukraine’s maritime drones.
These are small uncrewed boats loaded with explosives. They are best known for their dramatic attack on Sevastopol on October 29. One of the drones hit Novorossiysk on November 18. It caused limited damage but sent the message that the base is within reach.
Russia was already implementing enhanced defenses at its naval bases and the warships and submarines are now protected by multiple floating booms. The booms should provide protection against the maritime drone attacks. So this explanation seems less convincing.
Offensive Operations

The remaining explanation is that the Russian Navy assets are involved in an operation. The last time we reported an unusual spike in Russian Navy activity it preceded extensive missile strikes on Ukraine.
The Improved-Kilo class submarines have been used to launch Kalibr cruise missile attacks on Ukraine. They were largely withdrawn from Sevastopol on Crimea in September 2022 following Ukrainian drone attacks on the port city. They still return to Sevastopol to load Kalibr missiles. But three of the five (four improved-Kilo and one original kilo class) had been in Novorossiysk for weeks.
This does not explain the mass exodus because it would be unique for all three to be involved in a single attack. And their sailing to Sevastopol to arm would not likely be conducted in such a manner. what is more, the combination of amphibious ships and submarines also suggests that it is not missile strikes.
The Boldest Move: Amphibious Landings

One explanation which will be on analysis minds is some form of amphibious landing. This may target southwestern Ukraine to establish a land bridge to Transnistria. This Russian-supported unrecognized state is part of Moldova and borders Ukraine. It has always been understood that it is within Russia’s wider war aims to join up with it.
The submarines would be involved in broader intelligence or covering missions surrounding the amphibious ships.
Landings seem unrealistic given the fate of Russian advances at the beginning of the war. Although frequently threatened, the landings never came. At the same time the naval infantry, similar to marines, were deployed inland. They have been much depleted and plans to expand the naval infantry force will take months or years to complete. Despite all this, we cannot rule out some form of amphibious operation.
Analysts and commanders in Ukraine will no doubt be watching this development closely. In peacetime such an exodus, without a back story, would hardly be newsworthy. But in the ongoing war it takes on an added dimension.
———-

As the Ukie fleet was sunk in the very beginning, what to stop Vlad’s fleet? Up to this time, I have yet to see any of the collective West’s Navy any where nearby. Anyone have answers?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong (born November 1, 1949) is an American self-taught economic forecaster and convicted felon who spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million and hiding $15 million in assets from regulators.

In 1985 Armstrong was found to have violated Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulations by failing to register as a commodity trading advisor, failing to deliver required disclosure documents to clients, and failing to maintain proper records.

In 1987 one of Armstrong’s trading entities, Economic Consultants of Princeton Inc., was charged with failing to disclose a commission sharing agreement, and another of his entities, Princeton Economic Consultants Inc, was charged with misrepresenting hypothetical performance results and omitting a required disclaimer in advertisements. The penalties levied banned Armstrong and his companies from trading for twelve months, revoked their registrations, imposed cease-and-desist orders, and levied civil penalties totalling fifty thousand dollars.

In 1999, Japanese fraud investigators accused Armstrong of collecting money from Japanese investors, improperly commingling these funds with funds from other investors, and using the fresh money to cover losses he had incurred while trading.[13] United States prosecutors called it a three-billion-dollar Ponzi scheme. Allegedly assisting Armstrong in his scheme was the Republic New York Corporation, which produced false account statements to reassure Armstrong’s investors. In 2001, the bank agreed to pay US$606 million as restitution for its part in the scandal.

Armstrong was indicted in 1999 and ordered by Judge Richard Owen to turn over fifteen million dollars in gold bars and antiquities bought with the fund’s money; the list included bronze helmets and a bust of Julius Caesar. Armstrong produced some of the items but claimed the others were not in his possession; this led to several contempt of court charges brought by the SEC and the CFTC, for which he served seven years in jail until he reached a plea bargain with federal prosecutors. Under the terms of the agreement, Armstrong admitted to deceiving corporate investors and improperly commingling client funds—actions that according to prosecutors resulted in commodities losses of more than seven hundred million dollars—and was sentenced to five years in prison.

He was released from federal custody on 2 September 2011 after serving a total of eleven years behind bars.

The case against Armstrong was finally closed in 2017, with the distribution of about $80 million to claim holders by the receiver, according to court filings. Armstrong appealed the refusal of the receiver to transport his remaining possessions from storage lockers in New York and Pennsylvania to him in Florida, but the appeal failed in 2019. Concerning his felony conviction, Armstrong is “unrepentant”, according to Bloomberg.

Hidden rare coins cache

In 2014, a day laborer sold a box of 58 rare coins—which he said he had found while clearing out the basement of a house in New Jersey—to a Philadelphia thrift shop for $6,000. Three years later, in 2017, when the thrift shop announced they were to auction the coins—valued at $2.5 million—Armstrong came forward to declare himself to be the rightful owner. He claimed that he had hidden the coins in his mother’s old house to take them “off the books” in anticipation of the public offering of his firm. The thrift shop sued Armstrong, asking the court to declare the thrift shop as rightful owners while Armstrong counter-sued, also seeking ownership. In 2019 the US government found out about the coins and claimed them as part of the treasure hoard Armstrong had refused to hand over in 1999, and for which he had served seven years in jail for contempt. (In addition to rare coins, the treasure hoard—valued at $12.9 million—included 102 gold bars, 699 gold coins, and an ancient bust of Julius Caesar.)

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