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Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
fivethirtyeight ^ | 11/15/22 | Nathaniel Rakich

Posted on 12/19/2022 5:35:26 AM PST by central_va

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To: central_va
Share of Republican voters who said whether they had a favorable, unfavorable or unsure view of former President Donald Trump, from Sept. 12, 2015, to Nov. 15, 2022

Your poll's a month old. Trump has self-immolated completely since then.

21 posted on 12/19/2022 6:35:18 AM PST by Timber Rattler ("To hold a pen is to be at war." --Voltaire)
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To: central_va

“On the other hand, then-Sen. Ted Kennedy lost the 1980 Democratic primary despite polling at an average of 47 percent in the first half of 1979. But he was also in a unique situation: He was primarying a sitting president, Jimmy Carter, who wasn’t that far behind him at 32 percent.”

Not a good comparison. Kennedy did “the interview” on national TV. He was obviously incoherent — perhaps drunk. The interview tanked him. If he had just been able to seem kind of OK, he would have beat Carter because he had the magic Kennedy name. The interview was that bad.

That’s one difference between today and back then. In 2022, Fetterman won with an even more incoherent debate than Kennedy’s debacle. Back then, even democrats recoiled at obvious mental problems.


22 posted on 12/19/2022 6:35:33 AM PST by ModelBreaker
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_who_did_not_win_reelection

John Adams
John Quincy Adams
Martin Van Buren
Grover Cleveland
Benjamin Harrison
William Howard Taft
Herbert Hoover
Jimmy Carter
George H. W. Bush
Donald Trump


23 posted on 12/19/2022 6:45:26 AM PST by deport
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To: Nifster
True. Reagan did sign the amnesty bill. And he did outlaw private ownership of full auto weapons made after '86.

I always thought he must have had a collection of machine guns. A 9mm Uzi I was thinking of buying had a .22 rimfire conversion kit and was $1,600 at Ray's Guns in Louisville.

After Reagan pulled that stunt, that Uzi went up tens times the price.

24 posted on 12/19/2022 7:13:00 AM PST by LouAvul (Daniel 4:17: "..the most High ruleth in the kingdom of men, and giveth it to whomsoever he will.." )
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To: dangus
It's too early to know what the political landscape will look like at the start of the primary season. Will Trump scare off any potentially-strong rivals? Or if anyone does challenge him, will he destroy them like he did his opponents in 2016?

What if the O'Biden regime has succeeded in sending Trump to prison before the primaries? Would he still win them? There is precedent for someone running for President while incarcerated--Eugene Debs in 1920 (locked up by Woodrow Wilson). But Debs didn't win.

25 posted on 12/19/2022 7:19:42 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: LouAvul

Interesting to know.

But I think he was referring to Reagan being a Dem before a Repub.

One big problem with that is Reagan didn’t flip-flop. He was a Dem, then a Repub. period.

Trump seems to have a wish-washy history of affiliation.


26 posted on 12/19/2022 7:27:46 AM PST by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Federal-run medical care is as good as state-run DMV)
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To: the OlLine Rebel

I think his party affiliations were business decisions.


27 posted on 12/19/2022 7:30:33 AM PST by Reily
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To: Reily

Oh, that makes it OK.


28 posted on 12/19/2022 7:32:02 AM PST by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Federal-run medical care is as good as state-run DMV)
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To: central_va

Trump has pretty big following. Definitely enough to win the nomination.
The general election, that a different story!


29 posted on 12/19/2022 7:32:46 AM PST by AZJeep
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To: dangus

DeSantis is not running.


30 posted on 12/19/2022 7:35:31 AM PST by Nervous Tick (Truth is not hate speech.)
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To: Nifster

The next two years are going to be awful for appointing judges. The senate won’t have anything to do but appoint judges. We’re stuck with how ever many get through for decades. The last two years was a record for a first two year president.


31 posted on 12/19/2022 7:38:57 AM PST by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016 democratic )
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To: the OlLine Rebel

Yes, that makes it okay and smart. If you had a multi million dollar building project hanging in the balance depending on which party was just elected to the mayoralty, you’d switch your political affiliation, too. A politically vindictive mayor could easily kill your project.


32 posted on 12/19/2022 7:44:34 AM PST by aligncare ( Keep America Great! Trump/Pence 2020)
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To: the OlLine Rebel

No just giving a likely explanation.

Though in WV in years past I knew plenty of people who were registered Rat thought & voted Republican. They registered Rat for business reasons, usually these people were in or connected to the coal mining industry. If you were a known Republican your cars and property would have a high probability of being vandalized. Probably the same thing occurred in other union infested industries back then.

I don’t remember any of Trumps construction efforts having union problems considering it was originally NYC & New York State. Which I find to be amazing! I keep expecting some dirty deal to service to explain it, but it hasn’t! Could it be there wasn’t one? I guess if so amazing!


33 posted on 12/19/2022 7:48:44 AM PST by Reily
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To: Fiji Hill
Will Pence, Christie, Noem, Haley, Cruz or Hogan make better choices?

You left out DeSantis, for some odd reason. And Rand Paul, or others more likely than Christie or Hogan. Oh well, in the very famous words of Donald Trump, himself:

What in the world, at this point, do you have to lose?

34 posted on 12/19/2022 7:56:36 AM PST by Golden Eagle (The LGBTQ indoctrination agenda is designed to outlaw the Bible, and anyone who follows it.)
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To: bagster

He’s still proving his worth America had the best 4 years with him now we have non ending chaos.

Time for his return


35 posted on 12/19/2022 7:57:13 AM PST by Vaduz (LAWYERS )
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To: central_va

“I’ll take: Because he will be running against Benedict Pence, John Dolton, Krispy Kream, Ass-ah Hutchinson, Larry “who is no Hogan’s hero, and maybe even Michael Avenatti from prison; for $2000 Ken.”


36 posted on 12/19/2022 7:57:50 AM PST by jmaroneps37 (Freedom is never free. It must be won rewon and jealously guarded.)
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To: Baldwin77
We cannot afford 4 more wasted years with damaging, dreadful key position picks of Trump
Trump accomplished more in one 4yr term than any other President in your lifetime.

Put on your dunce cap and go stand facing the wall in the corner.

37 posted on 12/19/2022 8:00:52 AM PST by lewislynn (Trump accomplished more in one term than any other President in your lifetime.)
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To: Nervous Tick

Do you mean he’s not running yet, or are you making a prediction that he will not run?


38 posted on 12/19/2022 8:02:13 AM PST by dangus
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To: Gene Eric

Because he is standing between us and Deep State.


39 posted on 12/19/2022 8:05:11 AM PST by mewzilla (We will never restore the republic if we don't first secure the ballot box.)
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To: central_va

Because republicans love lockdowns, endless spending, masking, mail in ballots, bumpstock bans, the Lincoln loggers and the vax.
Is the entire party homo? Or did they give the democrats perpetual power by fraud on purpose repose.
Yes, more loss of freedom.
Records matter. Principles matter.
Now the republicans can keep moving left with trump.. because winning vs freedom is an easy choice.
What horrors will he unleash with the dems next?


40 posted on 12/19/2022 8:15:17 AM PST by momincombatboots (QEphesians 6... who you are really at war with)
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