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Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
fivethirtyeight ^ | 11/15/22 | Nathaniel Rakich

Posted on 12/19/2022 5:35:26 AM PST by central_va

We don’t even know every result of 2022 yet, but the 2024 election has already begun. On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump announced that he would seek a second nonconsecutive term as president. While it’s too early to predict Trump’s chances of going all the way, the former president is the current favorite to win the Republican primary again. But nothing is assured.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2024; trump; trump2024; winner
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Good analysis.
1 posted on 12/19/2022 5:35:26 AM PST by central_va
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To: central_va

Because he won it twice before?


2 posted on 12/19/2022 5:37:24 AM PST by Macoozie (Handcuffs and Orange Jumpsuits)
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To: central_va

from 538 nonetheless


3 posted on 12/19/2022 5:37:43 AM PST by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: central_va
It's a fair article. It uses statistics and historical data fairly, but also notes uncertainties and some unique factors that may make the historical data inapplicable.

In other words, WTFK?

4 posted on 12/19/2022 5:41:50 AM PST by Bruce Campbells Chin ( )
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To: central_va
Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary

Probably, also depends how many more 'Major Announcements' by Trump.

5 posted on 12/19/2022 5:47:45 AM PST by tlozo (Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees)
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To: tlozo
Probably, also depends how many more 'Major Announcements' by Trump.

Agreed....


6 posted on 12/19/2022 5:55:01 AM PST by bagster ("Even bad men love their mamas".)
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To: central_va

I think I’m done with Trump, not because of outside forces but because of his constant self-inflicted wounds.

-absolutely no change in his choice of people who surround him -in fact, it’s gotten worse.

-defense of the vax.

-defense of Religious Persecution Act (gay-marriage)

We cannot afford 4 more wasted years with damaging, dreadful key position picks of Trump (Sessions, Barr, Pompeo, .... )


7 posted on 12/19/2022 5:56:21 AM PST by Baldwin77 (Super, Duper, Ultra Maga, subject of the Ultra Maga King Donald)
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To: Bruce Campbells Chin

Every run for the party’s nomination for the office of the Presidency is a crap shoot. Some surprising things have happened on the way to the bank before. Even after getting into the bank, there are serious factors that may result in the derailment of any campaign, and it doesn’t even need to be the truth.

Just who has the loudest bullhorn.


8 posted on 12/19/2022 5:57:29 AM PST by alloysteel (People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do - Isaac Asimov)
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To: Baldwin77
I'm inclined to agree but, I'll likely still vote for him if he wins the primary.

The FR pic of him holding up the fag flag unnerves me. Speculation was he would go all out in his second term since he would have nothing to lose. He could go all out to the left.

After all, he was a liberal democrat before he was a patriot.

9 posted on 12/19/2022 6:03:29 AM PST by LouAvul (Daniel 4:17: "..the most High ruleth in the kingdom of men, and giveth it to whomsoever he will.." )
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To: Baldwin77
I think I’m done with Trump, not because of outside forces but because of his constant self-inflicted wounds. -absolutely no change in his choice of people who surround him -in fact, it’s gotten worse. -defense of the vax. -defense of Religious Persecution Act (gay-marriage) We cannot afford 4 more wasted years with damaging, dreadful key position picks of Trump (Sessions, Barr, Pompeo, .... )

Sadly, I agree with the above, and if Trump is the nominee, he'll get the Kari Lake treatment -- i.e. once again, the RINOs will allow the Rats to cheat.

10 posted on 12/19/2022 6:05:49 AM PST by HandBasketHell
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To: LouAvul

It’s quite possible.


11 posted on 12/19/2022 6:08:23 AM PST by M_Continuum
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To: central_va

This was before Kanye, NFTs, and the coming indictments.

In political terms, this article—at a month old—is ancient history.


12 posted on 12/19/2022 6:10:36 AM PST by Vermont Lt
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To: HandBasketHell; Baldwin77

And thus are weak willed women turned into whores by pimps. They are trained by abuse and mind games to submit. Sad.


13 posted on 12/19/2022 6:16:02 AM PST by WMarshal (Neocons and leftards are the same species of vicious rat)
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To: Baldwin77

name someone better?


14 posted on 12/19/2022 6:18:53 AM PST by Mr. K (No consequence of repealing obamacare is worse than obamacare its ? And the ambassador to Ukraineelf)
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To: alloysteel

Just who has the loudest bullhorn.

**********

Usually one with the most “BULLS..T” to spread around. The
run up to Tuesday, November 5, 2024 will be interesting.


15 posted on 12/19/2022 6:19:23 AM PST by deport
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To: WMarshal
And thus are weak willed women turned into whores by pimps. They are trained by abuse and mind games to submit. Sad.

Deserves a repeat.

16 posted on 12/19/2022 6:19:43 AM PST by BlackbirdSST (Trump WON!!! He will win 2024!)
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To: central_va

He’s under 50%, but with a very strong base. Defeating him will take a unified opposition, which brings about the very ironic twist that any Deep State/RINO candidacy helps him. If Republican’s problem with Trump is that they believe he is corrupt, incompetent, morally repugnant, etc., they’ll eventually support DeSantis before the primaries start. If they oppose DeSantis, you know their real problem with Trump is that he’s a conservative.


17 posted on 12/19/2022 6:24:43 AM PST by dangus
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To: Baldwin77
We cannot afford 4 more wasted years with damaging, dreadful key position picks of Trump (Sessions, Barr, Pompeo

Will Pence, Christie, Noem, Haley, Cruz or Hogan make better choices?

18 posted on 12/19/2022 6:25:22 AM PST by Fiji Hill
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To: Baldwin77

I’ll take solid judges and lower gas prices. Thanks much


19 posted on 12/19/2022 6:28:43 AM PST by Nifster (OI see puppy dogs in the clouds )
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To: LouAvul

Oh noes. Don’t ever mention Ronald Reagan


20 posted on 12/19/2022 6:29:39 AM PST by Nifster (OI see puppy dogs in the clouds )
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