Do they realize that Putin would be replaced by a much *less* reasonable hardliner?
“Do they realize that Putin would be replaced by a much *less* reasonable hardliner?”
Probably not. When your country is being invaded you don’t bother to think that the next dictator could be worse.
It doesnt matter. “Hardliner” or not, for internal political purposes they wont inherit the blame for Putins vast screwup. Indeed, they will be able to hang the whole mess on Putin and start off with a clean slate.
The whole Ukraine adventure has nothing to do with critical Russian interests. It was an opportunistic move by Putin that proved to be a monumental miscalculation, and quickly turned into a quagmire. Putin can’t get out of it without fatally weakening himself, because he would take the blame. It would take another man to extract Russia from this mess. If the new man has to blow out clouds of bellicose rhetoric while withrawing it doesnt really matter.
Btw, there is no such thing as a “hard liner” or suchlike. People at that level are all high functioning amoral narcissistic sociopaths. They have no sincerely held principles. Its all about gaining and keeping power. Everything else is about branding.