I would be surprised if they did not have the votes to convict. They are all afraid of Trump running in 2024, but even more than that, if he generates a new conservative party, then all of their offices will be in jeopardy. If they can convict, then they can make a legal case that he would not be eligible to run for President ever again.
The GOP swamp hates Trump but they are not afraid of him. They did pretty much whatever they wanted the past 4 years. Nothing in the future will change that.