Posted on 10/31/2020 2:53:37 PM PDT by springwater13
The Democrat lead dropped another 25K to settle around 90K. For reference, Democrats lead Republicans by 96K in the 2016 early vote, so Republicans are currently ahead of their 2016 pace by 6K votes. Since all polls show Republicans predominantly preferring Election Day voting, Trump should be in a good position in Florida.
Tomorrow, many counties are closed and looking at the vote split I would not expect many changes from these numbers so things will probably settle right around the 2016 margin.
Looking at County level data, Republican turnout is about 4% light in the early voting in Orlando/Jacksonville and their suburbs Seminole and St. Johns County. In a tight race, it is going to be necessary to turn out every Trump vote so if you are in Orlando/Jacksonville media market, make sure to vote on Tuesday or early tomorrow if your county is open for early voting!
(Excerpt) Read more at joeisdone.github.io ...
How much do you think PT wins FL by?
What about the Ind early vote in 2016 vs 2020?
4 percent.
I would LOVE to see it much higher.
But all I really care about is winning!
I would guess there are substantially more dems voting for Trump than vice versa as well
I think he wins but it depends on how independents do and how badly Trump underperforms in the Orlando/Jacksonville suburbs. All Trump’s gains in Miami-Dade could be wiped out in Orlando/Jacksonville right now.
I can see Trump winning by extremely tight Rick Scott/DeSantis or a more comfortable 2-3%.
As I said if you are in Orlando/Jacksonville or have friends there, call them and get out the vote. That’s the place we need to improve.
So far, 1.8 million\21% Indy early vote...no way to tell where they split
the indy vote and first time or infrequent indy vote is the entire story in this election methinks
I bet a lot of those Democrats voted for Trump.
“I bet a lot of those Democrats voted for Trump”
I think so too especially those with Hispanic heritage.
Trump’s rallies are surveyed.
Can someone provide a link where we can look up the stats?
That said. I've seen more Biden signs and bumper stickers in Hillsborough than I saw for Hillary 4 years ago
The Miami Dade news in this post is good. The Orlando / Jackson underperformance is troubling. The I-4 corridor is where Democrats make up votes
Every Trump person who can get to the polls needs to do so. Canvas your friends - do everything you can. I've seen too many things these past few days saying Florida is leaning our way. Don't be complacent, we could easily lose Florida.
I pray god I'm wrong and you all laugh at me next week, but GET EVERYONE YOU CAN TO THE POLLS TUES
HISTORIC PRESIDENT! The Number of Democrats at President Trump’s Last Several Rallies Ought to Scare the Hell Out of the American Left!
“I bet a lot of those Democrats voted for Trump.”
Hannity: When you say that the president would have to win by 4 or 5 in Pennsylvania because of voter fraud are we talking about Philly? One phenomena that I am seeing in every poll, very consistent they are not outliers, is that African Americans, Hispanic Americans are going for Donald Trump in almost double or triple the number that he got in 2016. Is that real because the Times/Siena poll had Philadelphia 24% for President Trump.
Cahaly (Trafalgar): Absolutely we see it across the board the most recent Florida we had him at 27% of the African American vote. The most recent Nevada he was at 20; Michigan I believe 25; North Carolina 26. This is absolutely a phenomenon that had happened in the last 10 days. He’s gone from the teens and having quite of few of the black voters moving around between undecided and third party and its all fallen away as I said a few times the shy Trump voters in the black community aren’t very shy anymore.
yeah, I really don’t like the underperformance in Seminole and St. Johns. These are the suburbs where Republicans should be strong and they are clear outliers this election compared to the exurbs. It shows a tremendous amount of Democrat energy in former ruby red republican suburbs.
It’s telling me too many suburban republican women are turned off by Trump’s personality reluctant to pull the trigger for Trump. They may not vote for Biden but not voting at all is a big problem too. He needs turnout everywhere.
Has someone cancelled Monday?
Lol, women aren’t going to vote for anarchism rioting looting Joe.
There’s no early voting Monday other than 2 Panhandle Counties still damaged by Hurricane Michael. Those 2 are open because of damage at polling stations.
Hope you are right and they all turnout Tuesday. Right now the data shows problems in early voting enthusiasm compared to most other places in Florida in Orlando/Jacksonville suburbs. I look at hard data to make decisions and I’m sounding the warning alarm in Orlando/Jacksonville. This is where get out the vote need to focus on in Florida for republicans.
Absolutely. You know that there are union Trump supporters who cannot reveal their vote. I was shocked that the union folks in MI told Debbie Dingell that they are voting for Trump.
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