Kentucky final voter registration statistics

Kentucky State Board of Elections ^ | 10/11/20 | me

[Ravi]

1/20/17:

D: 1,687,040
R: 1,347,255


9/15/20:

D: 1,670,789
R: 1,533,095


10/10/20 (Book-closing):

D: 1,672,380
R: 1,568,690


DEM REGISTRATION ADVANTAGE OVER THE YEARS:

1/20/17: 339,785

9/15/20: 137,694

10/10/20: 103,690

[Ravi]

DEMS added 1,591 voters last month.

REPS added 35,595 voters last month.

Now the fun stuff. These northern Kentucky counties (Boone, Kenton, Campbell, Pendleton, Bracken, Mason, Lewis, Boyd) border Ohio.

Demographically and politically, I would think they would be similar to southern Ohio counties minus Hamilton.

I've just started going through the registration changes in these northern Kentucky counties and will post later in the thread.

Since Ohio does not have registration by party like Kentucky, this is the closest we can get to figuring out registration changes in southern Ohio (again probably minus Hamilton).

[Ravi]

ping

[snarkytart]

thanks

[devane617]

Thanks. Interesting stuff.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Thanks for posting these very positive numbers for the Kentucky Republicans.

Do you know if someone has compiled similar statistics for all 50 states?

It would be great to see Republicans gaining registered voters throughout the USA.

[Ravi]

No data on the website that I can find prior to 1/2017.


Voter totals in the 8 Northern Kentucky counties bordering Southern Ohio:

1/20/17:
D: 154,428
R: 177,297


9/15/20:
D: 159,393
R: 199,798


10/10/20:
D: 159,782
R: 203,688


REP ADVANTAGE OVER TIME:

1/20/17: +22,869

9/15/20: +40,405

10/10/20: +43,906

[Ravi]

Follow myself, Bort, LS, byecomey, coop, eaglesttt. I’m sure I’m leaving many out. Lots of us numbers junkies around.

[snarkytart]

yes we were good at registration during the midterms but we didn’t GOTV. We must show up in force.

[libertylover]

Regardless of the registration advantage for the Democrats, Trump will win Kentucky overwhelmingly, say 60-40.

[Coop]

My spreadsheet lines up with yours. I'm showing a GOP net gain of just over 236K registered KY voters [!!] since 2016. And these aren't just Dems becoming independents (only increased by 28K) or Dems being wiped off the rolls (Ds only decreased by <15K). The KY GOP added 221K voters - incredible. Trump's winning margin in 2016 was about 574K votes.

KY borders key states VA and OH. The early voting numbers you (I think?) provided from key Midwest GOP counties in OH and IN are just amazing, with turnout in at least one Repub county tripling. Combined with these numbers, they show why Trump pulled funding from OH and IA, and why I (& many others) are so confident about DJT winning PA, WI and MN. I think he'll win MI, too, but would like to see more data.

[Coop]

Trump will win Kentucky overwhelmingly, say 60-40.

Geez, I hope not! Trump won KY in 2016 62.5% to 32.7% for Hillary. :-) Hoping for a slight improvement in those numbers this time around.

https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/

[Ravi]

Exactly. I will do West virginia later tonight. Those counties that border SE Ohio are also looking very impressive

[Coop]

Looking forward to it! I just got done walking neighborhoods for three hours, dropping literature for two local GOP candidates. One incumbent state rep, and one candidate for state senate who has a real shot at unseating an incumbent. My “dogs” are barkin’! Fortunately it was a beautiful day.

[Coop]

Well? Where are the WV numbers, tease?!? :-P

[Ravi]

Fell asleep. Will post this morning. Give me a few minutes.

[PermaRag]

Only about half of the states register voters by party. I have data back to the 1990s for most of them.

Arizona
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
South Dakota
West Virginia
Wyoming

[Coop]

Well... okay. But remember, sleep is a sign of weakness!

[SamAdams76]

I appreciate all these state registration statistics as they are a much better indicator of voting trends than the "polling" that is done by the MSM.

But these threads focus on Republicans and Democrats - often leaving out those who are registered as "independent" or otherwise unaffiliated with one of the two major parties.

I've been registering as Independent most of my life, even though I will vote Republican maybe 95% of the time.

In Kentucky, there are well over 300,000 registered voters who are not affiliated with the two major parties.

That could have a major impact on the margin of Trump's victory (which he won by nearly a 2 to 1 margin in 2016).

[Ravi]

You are quite correct.

[Coop]

But how would you propose to change that, when looking at registration metrics? You can cite polls (which often vary, and are usually questionable) about which way independents are breaking. But the polls rely on modeling independent voter turnout. And independents are notoriously late to make up their minds. Rs and Ds are easier. Just assume that 95% of each party votes for their nominated candidate. But even that doesn’t capture turnout. However, it’s a better indicator than polls.