COVID-19 Update - 09/21/2020

My own workup | 09/21/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 187

As of 09/20/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities and New Cases in the United States

Fatalities fell by 359 cases from the previous day, to come in at 294
yesterday. That 294 Fatalities was the lowest number back to 09/07, when
we had 281. It was a 25.00% decrease from the same day the week before.

New Cases fell off by 4,097 from the day before, to come in at 37,365
yesterday. That was a 17.29% increase from the same day the week before.

Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene

Fatalities fell by 1,339 cases from the previous day, to come in at 3,632
yesterday. That was a 2.10% decrease from the same day last week.

New Cases fell by 40,940 from the day before, to come in at 292,053 yesterday.
This was a new record for a Sunday, and a 3.79% increase from the same day
the week before.

A New Case Milestone in the United States

The United States saw it's seven millionth case declaration yesterday. Keep
in mind that at the same time, the Active Cases stand at 2,550,510. Our
highest level of Active Cases was achieved on 09/01, at 2,571,605. We are
seeing rising and falling number for this metric in recent weeks.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Here we go...

New Case Declarations fell yesterday. It was a Sunday.

Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It's also informitive to look up the data columns to see how the
situation has changed recently.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active Cases are tracked in that next to the last column on the right.
They went up yesterday. We're still less thn the all time high set on 09/01.

Take note of the Serious/Critical case situation on the right there.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

We had a mixed bag here yesterday. We have been doing better each day
recently, but here we had a hicup.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Active Cases rose yesterday. We are still lower than we have been since 09/01.
The chart has flattened out, and the 14-day is showing a small increase..

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing fell off a bit yesterday. The 14-day lost ground.

The three-day line looked better, but the single-day was up, still in low
territory.

Things still haven't smoothed out here yet, but things do seem headed for
smoother sailing ahead.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

I like the New Case Declarations line right now. They are ever so slightly
moving in the direction of flattening.

The active case line is appearing to move toward flattening.

I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.

Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.

You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

Texas took both top spots yesterday, but California was just three Fatalities
behind in that column. Note how low the winning number was. Nice.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland thereChina

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Case Declartations eased further lower yesterday. It was a Sunday.

The resolved percent came in at 75.996%.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases rose fell off by a very small amount yesterday.

The Serious/Critical cases fell off moderately.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

This metric set fell off considerably again yesterday. Much better than a
few days ago.

Numbers fell off for everyone here yesterday.

It was still the highest New Case declaration Sunday so far.

Well, the blue line hs been climbing up. Sorry to see it.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

<

The two charts above had looked like they were revealing flattening, but as
the days went by, they began moving upward again.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Spain - OUCH! (Will you look at Spain! Wow!)

France - Ooo

To be honest, it looks like all these nations are showing an inclination to
move up.

I checked the parameters for Spain, and they were correct. That growth is
amazing.

Frace is suffering the same fate.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden has flattened out a bit after that correction a while back.

The Nethherlands is just going balistic.

We do need to keep it in perspective though. While the raw numbers do show
the Netherlands to be going orbital, the per million figures are still a lot
less than Sweden's.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

India led out in both metrics again yesterday.

If things don't change with regard to India's case momentum, it will replacebr> the United States as the nation with the most Declared Cases roughly six
weeks out.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

This chart revealed more of a flattening, but no more. There have been some
drops in the numbers of Active Cases, and then the size of their increased
numbers as they grow recently. Both are good signs of a more healthy situation.

In the the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.

That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We rose to 76.061% Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. The rise in this
column has been very reliable over recent days, weeks, and months.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases rose fell off minimally, and Serious/Critical cases fell off
moderately.

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Each specific region fell off considerately yesterday. It was one of our
lower reporting days of the week.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.

Fatalities fell off for the day, but 08/07 had an even lower day. Still, nice...

Seems like we've settled into a Ground-Hog day situation here, living the same
COVID-19 day over and over and over...

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

This area didn't look very good yesterday.

and Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

I expanded the levels here yesterday. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.

Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 5,000 cases,
but they have far lees of them still Active. Over 25% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Yesterday was the 11th day in a row, where the New Cases set a record for the
day. We are seing very high numbers, and gradually climbing up week to week.
Numbers are strong, even on the lower days now. That bodes poorly for the
traditional heavy numbers days.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.

We remained at 19th place here yesterday.

Over the last month we've been in this rut from 19th to 16th place..

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[lightman]

Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats.

Information through the PA Department of Health, figures as of midnight September 20/21

LTC deaths = 5353
Total deaths = 8004

LTC deaths as percentage of total = 66.9%

LTC deaths are allegedly decreased by one from the figure reported on September 19 while total deaths increased by 53 over the two day period.

So, surprise, surprise, for the first time LTC deaths have dropped (barely) beneath 67%.

I smell book cooking!

[lightman]

See post # 3....cooked books to inflate the alleged “community spread” as a justification for Wolf vetoing the school sports attendance bill?

[ConservativeInPA]

I smell book cooking!All the books are cooked in the Commonwealth.

[yoe]

Many thanks Doughty One!

[Paul R.]

I wonder if anyone has tracked projected fatalities, say, per Worldometers, 3 months out, vs. reported fatalities, once we got there.

No, I’m not asking you, D1, to do this - you are already doing more than anyone could ask. But, maybe someone has kept track of this. It would be a dynamic curve, so, best might be “snapshots” taken every month or so to get a good idea of how these public projections have performed over time.

[Paul R.]

There appears to be a hint of deceleration in the rate of decrease in fatalities, this last week or two. It may be nothing, but bears watching the next couple weeks.

I’m also curious as to how well many Central states will do as a result of the present delightful(!!) but cool weather.

Somewhere (maybe it was on Worldometers) it seems like I read that fatalities now typically follow confirmed infection by 17-21 days. Is that a slight increase over what was reported earlier on, or is my recollection lousy?

[central_va]

COVID is yesterday’s news. Nobody cares. The hoax ends Nov 4th. Move on.

[DoughtyOne]

I think it has been played up for political purposes, but
it isn’t a hoax. And yes, I do believe it will be
de-emphasized just after the election. Perhaps not.

I have a family member who works in a local hospital.
Children came in with COVID-19. Three nurses in particular
didn’t come down with it, Their husbands did. All three
husbands died. One had a co-morbidity. I believe the
others were approaching 60, so you could call that a
co-morbidity I suppose.

Would you mind catching it?

After all, it is just a hoax according to you...

Thirty-one million people around the world have come
down with the hoax. Seven million in the United States
have now.

Globally over 900,000 people have died from the hoax.

In the United States over 200,000 have. Many of them
had co-morbidities.

Those who had parents who were diagnosed with terminal
cancer and only given six months to live, didn’t say,
“Well, they would have been gone in six months anyway.”
They mourned their loss.

I think we should open up I think we should have months
ago. This is essentially a lot less of a threat then
the flu is, and we ignore the flu for the most part.

Never the less, I and others want to see what the
numbers are.

If you don’t like this thread, I suggest you move on.

You have a right to your own thoughts, misguided or not.
So does everyone else.

[central_va]

Would you mind catching it?

I think I have had it already. I don't wear mask ( Northam face napkin ) getting it is no big deal for 98% of the population. Those at risk know who they are by now. The virus is not a hoax but the big scare is definitely a hoax.

I don't want to get covid but I don't want to catch a cold either. But I am not altering my lifestyle one bit for this hoax.

[DoughtyOne]

Call it a hoax if it makes you feel superior to others.

We don’t mind.

We can see that for what it is.