Is the Official Covid-19 Death Toll Accurate?

A nationally representative survey conducted by Axios/Ipsos in late July 2020 found that 37% of adults think the real number of C-19 fatalities in the U.S. is lower than reported, while 31% think the true death toll is greater than reported.

The facts show that neither side has an airtight case, but the evidence is more consistent with the theory that less people have died from C-19 than the official figures indicate. Nevertheless, the extent of the possible overcount is unknown, and even if it were as high as 50,000, it would not make a marked difference in key measures of the pandemic’s severity. Hence, debates over the accuracy of the death toll distract from other issues with much greater implications.

The main argument of those who claim that the official C-19 death tally is an undercount is based on a factor called “excess deaths.” This is defined as the total number of deaths from all causes during the pandemic minus the number of deaths that would normally occur at this time of the year.

In the words of the Government Accountability Office, “Examining higher-than-expected deaths from all causes helps to address limitations in the reporting of Covid-19 deaths because the number of total deaths is likely more accurate than the numbers of deaths from specific causes.”

U.S. death certificate data shows that the rise in deaths during the pandemic has indeed been greater than the number of reported C-19 deaths. Some jump to the conclusion that these additional fatalities must be C-19 deaths that were not recorded as such, but a broad array of data indicates that the bulk or all of them are caused by societal reactions to C-19—instead of the disease itself.

More from a little ways doen in the article:

Some excess deaths “may reflect under-reporting” or “patients with Covid-19 who died from related complications,” “but a third possibility, the one we’re quite concerned about is” the “spillover effects of the pandemic, such as delayed medical care, economic hardship or emotional distress.” In the five states that that had the most Covid-19 deaths in March and April: stroke deaths were 35% above normal. Alzheimer’s deaths were 64% above normal. heart disease deaths were 89% above normal. diabetes deaths were 96% above normal. “New York City’s death rates alone rose a staggering 398% from heart disease and 356% from diabetes.” “Still others may have struggled to deal with the consequences of job loss or social isolation.” “A number of people struggling with depression, addiction and very difficult economic conditions caused by lockdowns may have become increasingly desperate, and some may have died by suicide. People addicted to opioids and other drugs may have overdosed.” “The findings from” the “study confirm an alarming trend across the U.S., where community members experiencing a health emergency are staying home—a decision that can have long-term, and sometimes fatal, consequences.” Numerous other facts corroborate the ones above, a small sampling of which includes the following:

A scientific survey commissioned by the American College of Emergency Physicians in April 2020 found that 29% of adults have “actively delayed or avoided seeking medical care due to concerns about contracting” C-19. A California-based ABC News station reported in May: “Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the Covid-19 virus.” Mike deBoisblanc, head of the trauma unit at the hospital stated that he’s “seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks,” and “mental health is suffering so much” that he says “it is time to end the shelter-in-place order.” A scientific survey conducted by the CDC in July 2020 found that about 32% of U.S. adults had “symptoms of anxiety disorder” as compared to 8% around the same time last year. The perils of this are underscored by a 2015 meta-analysis in the Journal of the American Medical Association Psychiatry, which found that the overall risk of death among people with anxiety is 43% higher than the general population. A study published by the American Medical Association in September 2020 found that 27.8% of U.S. adults had symptoms of depression during the C-19 pandemic as compared to 8.5% before the pandemic. The same 2015 meta-analysis found that depression is associated with a 71% higher risk of death. An article published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimated that “more than 20 million jobs” were “swept away” in the early months of the C-19 pandemic. A 2011 meta-analysis in the journal Social Science & Medicine about mortality, “psychosocial stress,” and job losses found that “unemployment is associated with a 63% higher risk of mortality in studies controlling for covariates.” A study published by Just Facts in May 2020 found that anxiety related to C-19 will ultimately destroy at least seven times more years of life than can possibly be saved by lockdowns. With regard to this study, the accomplished psychiatrist Joseph P. Damore, Jr. wrote that it “thoroughly answers the question about the cure being worse than the disease.”

The best way to show a COVID over-count?

Make Fauci re-calculate the annual influenza fatality rate using the exact same method the CDC uses to count COVID fatalities.

The number of flu deaths would increase by two or three times - EVERY year.

Why? Two basic reasons.

First, the CDC counts all suspected COVID cases as lab confirmed COVID cases. No such procedure is used for influenza.

Second, the CDC counts 100% of pneumonia + COVID deaths as exclusively COVID deaths. No such procedure is used for influenza.

BINGO....a lot of it has to due with Coding Rules. Often a
patient dies of something else but has Covid (not necessarily bad case or may it is severe)...under Federal Coding Guidelines coders are required to code the Covid First if it’s the first admission with it. The death certificate is text - coding is well obviously CODES...
ALL statistic come from the Codes!! Example, our hospital
had a cancer laden patient who died from her cancer (she
was already on hospice). She contracted the virus in hospice. Cause of death was cancer, secondary diagnosis was
Covid-19. Based on how statistical reports are being run, I will bet she is in the Covid stats. Poor thing, may she rest in peace.

I am a professional certified coder. The “Federal Coding Guidelines” have been revised numerous times since March!

Key here: ALL stats are most likely lies on any subject!!

The "official" numbers are way off, and never will be "right."

The problem is twofold. One, there is tremendous incentive in both the medical field (financial) and in the MSM (agenda) to over report covid-19 cases and deaths. Two, there is no good single definition of a covid-19 death.

Suppose an otherwise healthy person contracts covid-19 and subsequently dies. Easy, count him/her as a covid-19 casualty. Ok, suppose a person exhibiting no symptoms whatsoever dies in a traffic accident. However, during treatment at the ER it was discovered that person as covid-19 antibodies or some such. Easy, don't count him/her as a covid-19 casualty. (although there is ample evidence many deaths in exactly these kinds of circumstances are counted)

The scenarios above are easy. But what about the gray areas? The people with other medical conditions. Cases where the patient doesn't necessarily die from covid-19, or merely with covid-19, but where covid-19 is a contributing factor in their death? How much of a contributing factor should it have to be in order to be counted? There's no hard and fast definition. No way to know "gosh, if xyz hadn't had covid-19 we could've saved him from pneumonia..." Well maybe, maybe not...you don't know and can't know.

So the numbers will never be "right" because there's just no good definition. We can estimate a decent range - and I'll bet you a good steak dinner the real numbers are far, far lower than are being reported in the MSM. As in, a couple of orders of magnitude lower.

The problem is that we know exactly how many people have died, but have no clear definition of what it means to be a “COVID” death, and nothing to compare it to, because we have not cared what it meant to be a “flu” death in years.

FOr example. EVERYBODY KNOWS that “the average flu” has a death rate of about 0.1%. Right?

In 2009, the H1N1 flu is estimated to have infected 60 million americans. At a 0.1% death rate, the number of deaths from that would be 60,000. But the CDC actual estimate of death is 12,000. Which is a “death rate” of about 0.02%.

According to the Virginia Department of Health, we have had 2992 COVID deaths this year. But their FLU page shows we had some 4400 flu and flu related deaths. Which means flu killed about 35% more people than COVID.

The key is “flu-related”. CDC does “flu deaths”. There is separate info for “pneumonia deaths”, and I can’t tell if they move them from “pneumonia” to “flu-related” if a person tests for flu.

So the only useful information will be in 2021, when we look at our total deaths for 2020, compare it to 2019 and 2018, and see the differences. My guess is our “excess deaths” will be about 50,000. My guess is large number of COVID cases will match up with a large decrease in pneumonia cases.

But also that we will have a lot of extra deaths because of the lockdowns, and it will be impossible to distinguish.

I would say that the Hospitals are over reporting COVID-19 deaths because they get more money for COVID-19 than anything else from the US government.. I would say that half of the deaths are from other causes!!

Second/third hand anecdotes: My son in Utah (mask-mandated) reports that a fellow worker signed up for a Covid test but didn't take it. Weeks later he gets a notice that he tested positive. I told him this was not new as these reports had been coming in for weeks.

He goes to a bank for a boat loan and small talks about the virus with the officer, who says she and the crew are fed up, as they get headaches from the masks. He mentions the above and she says "I'll go you one better. Grandpa, who smoked like a chimney, just died at 65 with lung cancer. The doc comes around and asks if it's OK to put the cause of death down as Covid-19."

She didn't say what they did, but at the least. I would have been a wise-arse and ask for half of what the govt paid for that case.

[Virus anecdotes] That is really something, but I suspected as much!

I posted that elsewhere and got this reply:
"RE: Utah testing no-show. Swabs are usually serial numbered and when the coworker signed up for the test they were "assigned" a serial number. When they didn't show up the swab was probably used for someone else, but the paperwork wasn't reassigned [someone screwed up]. Easily done when hundreds are done at a clinic in a day. It also means there's someone out there that tested positive and wasn't notified.

As far as the unscrupulous doctor, they should have asked if Grandpa tested positive. If not get the doc's name and file a malpractice report with the state board of licenses."

I replied that since the swab screwups were so widespread, that doesn't give people much confidence in the system. As for the "unscrupulous" doctor, I suspect he is under orders/pressure from the Administration to gin up the numbers to increase profits - another practice that has been widely reported. I cannot believe the pay-per-case or -death was implemented without widespread fraud being considered - and ignored by those who wrote that law. Large campaign contributions by the hospital industry?

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