Posted on 08/14/2020 6:55:17 AM PDT by Yo-Yo
Democrat Joe Biden's lead has expanded to double-digits against President Trump in the presidential election, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds. Biden now leads Trump 53% to 42%, up from an 8-point advantage at the end of June.
The change comes as 71% of Americans now see the coronavirus as a real threat, up significantly over the last several months, as more than 167,000 Americans have died and more than 5 million have become infected with the virus, as of Friday.
And yet, more than a third of Americans (35%) say they won't get vaccinated when a vaccine comes available; 60% say they will. There are huge splits by education and party on this. Those with college degrees are 19 points more likely to get vaccinated than those without (72% to 53%), and Democrats are 23 points more likely than Republicans (71% to 48%).
(Just 52% had said they would get vaccinated for H1N1 in 2009 in the survey, but H1N1 was far less deadly and did not have the same far-reaching impact on the American economy and society.)
Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said he is concerned about the unwarranted vaccine skepticism in some of the country and how that could slow overcoming the virus.
"We have to admit and realize that there is an anti-vax movement that we have had to struggle with in this country," Fauci told the PBS NewsHour last month. "And I believe the solution to that would be community engagement ... because it could be lifesaving, and it certainly would be the solution to this terrible pandemic."
The poll shows that experts like Fauci have some leverage in making the case to the public. Three-quarters of Americans (75%) say they trust the information they hear from public health experts a great deal or a good amount. State and local officials also fare well, with 62% of Americans saying they trust what they hear from them.
President Trump, whose approval rating has dipped to 39% in this survey, is seen as an unreliable source of information on the pandemic. Just 31% say they can trust the information coming from the president. Less than half — 46% — say they trust what they hear from news media on it.
On the issues, Trump trails Biden substantially on who is seen as better to handle coronavirus or race relations. Biden has a 53% to 37% lead on handling coronavirus, and an even wider 58% to 34% advantage on handling race relations.
Trump retains a narrow, 47% to 45% edge on the economy, but that has narrowed since March when Trump had a clear 50% to 42% lead on the question in an ABC/Washington Post poll.
All of that helps explain Biden's expanded lead and where the vote is coming from. Biden has now reached a majority (52%) with independents and leads Trump with this crucial group by 16 percentage points.
Biden's advantages
Biden also has significant advantages with Black voters, young voters, whites with a college degree and suburban voters. Trump draws his strongest support from white evangelical Christians, whites without a college degree and those who live in rural areas.
Trump has seen his advantages with other key groups decline, including with whites overall, men and voters in small towns.
What's particularly striking is Trump and Biden are now tied with whites at 48%. Trump had a 6-point advantage with the group at the end of June.
To underscore the significance of this, Trump won white voters by 20 points in 2016, and no Democrat has gotten more than 44% of the white vote (incumbent President Bill Clinton in 1996) in a presidential election since 1976.
That year, Carter got 48% of the white vote and won in an electoral landslide, but only by 2 percentage points in the popular vote. Back then, whites made up almost 9 in 10 voters.
In 2016, whites were down to 70% as a share of the electorate, and demographics point to a continuing downward trend.
Neither Trump nor Biden is viewed very favorably, but Trump's score is far worse than Biden's. Just 35% said they have a favorable view of Trump, even less than approve of the job he's doing; 60% have an unfavorable view.
For Biden, 42% had a positive impression, 49% had a negative one.
Notably, Biden leads by 19 points voters who say they dislike both candidates. That's important because in 2016, Trump won voters who said they disliked both Trump and his Democrat Hillary Clinton by 30 points, according to exit polls.
Even though Clinton led for most of 2016 in surveys, the election broke late in Trump's direction because of voters who said they were undecided and said they disliked both candidates.
This poll finds that just 12% are persuadable — either undecided or could change their vote.
The one positive sign for Trump continues to be the strong backing of his supporters. His voters are more enthusiastically behind him than Biden — 76% of them say they strongly support the president versus 64% of Biden's.
The Trump campaign has highlighted similar findings in other surveys, but reelections are about the incumbent president, and the voters who oppose Trump are highly motivated to cast their ballots.
One of the goals of the Democratic National Convention, which begins next week, might be try to drum up more enthusiasm for the ticket, now consisting of Biden and California Sen. Kamala Harris, whom Biden picked to be his running mate this week.
"The pick of Harris and the Democratic convention could change that," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "Certainly one of the goals of the Democratic convention should be to close this enthusiasm gap for the ticket."
Mailing it in
Half of Americans (50%) now say they will cast their votes in person, up from 38% in May.
Forty-three percent say they will mail in their ballots, down from 50% in May. And there is a big partisan split.
Biden voters mostly say they plan to cast their vote by mail, 62% to 36%.
Trump supporters, though, plan to physically go to the polls — 72% to 24%.
Coronavirus — what to do and not do
American families are hotly debating the right and wrong things to do during the tenuous reopenings during the pandemic.
Well, here are some numbers to settle those arguments. Most Americans think it's largely a good idea to eat outside at restaurants (80%) and have people physically return to work (58%), though to a lesser degree.
They do not, however, think it's a good idea to: allow large groups of people to attend religious, social or sporting events (just 27% in favor), allow children to take part in local or school sports (35%), have students return to school (40%) or open restaurants for people to eat inside (43%).
The survey of 1,261 U.S. adults, including 1,118 registered voters, was conducted by calling mobile phones and landlines, from Aug. 3 through Aug. 11 by The Marist Poll, in both English and Spanish. The poll has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points when adults are referenced and 3.6 percentage points for registered voters. The survey was sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour.
Friends don’t let friends vote for donkeys.
Another poll that shows Trump reaching a historic, 25-year low among whites, on track for the worst performance among whites for a Republican Presidential candidate in nearly a generation.
Still can’t stop myself from seeing “Marxist Poll” when they say Maris Poll. Wonder why they took the x out? /s
Poll guys will have to coordinate their held back phony polls to show wildly enthusiastic gushing love for Kamala on ticket sends Biden numbers into the ionosphere. Already set up on their computers before the announcement, probably.
Another poll that shows Trump reaching a historic, 25-year low among whites, on track for the worst performance among whites for a Republican Presidential candidate in nearly a generation.
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Think it’s true?
It's the economy stupid. Once suburban women realize their hubbies can't retire if Biden crashes their 401k they will wise up.
The usuall garbage being spewed. In my circles, I know of no one planning to take a vacine, some even willing to take up arms against taking it. Second falsehood, “ terrible pandemic”, wake me up when it has a death rate that exceeds a bad flu season and starts to kill those under 65 years old.Smart Americans are on to their campaign of fear and disruption.
I remember the polls during the last election. Hillary was picking out curtains for the oval office.
Thanks, I needed that----Sarcasm.
Did they stand next to a sidewalk in an urban shopping district as a white man went past a crowd of millenials sipping oat milk and another of blacks leaning on a wall outside a store and say loudly "Are you for or against Trump?" "Uh,that is, I mean, uh, against." (blacks reduce their scowls and millenials smile under their masks). Whew.
——The survey of 1,261 U.S. adults, including 1,118 registered voters, was conducted by calling mobile phones and landlines, from Aug. 3 through Aug. 11 by The Marist Poll, in both English and Spanish..-——
LOL. Come on. Tea leaves would be better.
It is hard to tell, but even Trump-friendly outfits like Rasmussen show the same thing. I can only speculate on two possibilities:
1. The polls show a true situation, and Trump is about to be tossed out by a historic repudiation at the hands of whites.
2. The very small polling response rates (<1%) now mean polling methodology and perhaps the very concept of traditional polling has reached its limits, and is no longer valid. As a result, all polling is now suspect, and we need to toss out everything we know about this discipline and start over.
Both of the above are pathological possibilities, both are hard to reconcile. If I had to choose, I would say #1 is slightly more likely for a number of reasons.
Polls generally reveal exactly what the pollster intends.
Half of Americans (50%) now say they will cast their votes in person, up from 38% in May.
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This does not correlate with the panic/fear of the rest of the polling data.
That’s okay, 2/3rds to 3/4 of the country will be voting for President Trump.
Thanks for asking. No, I am referring to the same Rasmussen poll you indicate. The internals show a stunning collapse in the white support for Trump.
Utter nonsense.
The Democrats are gonna run their basement strategy with Biden all the way to the election and have Willie’s Girl do the heavy campaigning. There won’t be any debates and elected Democrats in every state will push for mail in voting, and be successful in implementing it in a number of states. The OBVIOUS is staring us right in the face. So many of us in March knew the coronavirus was an orchestrated plan from the beginning. The RATS have purposely destroyed a great economy, and ruined the lives of tens of millions of Americans all for the purpose of winning an election. I pray every day that more of our citizens will wise up and realize the horrible thing about to be perpetuated on our country if the RATs steal the election!
“Back then, whites made up almost 9 in 10 voters”
Yeah. Back “then”. Forty-four years ago, and for the previous 3 centuries.
If you had told us in 1976 that White people would be headed for minority status in the United States - the country they founded and populated - you would have been laughed at.
Trump was told in his first campaign that the key to winning was the white vote, which even the despicable garbage at NPR admits is still 70% of the electorate.
He heeded that and focused on immigration and trade, bringing jobs back to the US.
That’s how he won. Not by trying to patch together a coalition of the fringes like the Rats.
When he goes back to that - Covid be damned - he wins.
Biden picked Harris to stop some possibility of black defections or apathy. But even with that, Trump simply has to increase his White proportion by a few percent. There’s still a lot of us. So a few percent is a lot of votes.
And he doesn’t have to be circumspect about it. No one is when they talk about blacks, “latinos” or asians. That’s always accompanied by nodding heads of approval.
Time for Trump to go openly for his base: the White people, the Americans. Without the hyphens...
You have a platinum account with Rasmussen? Perhaps you could share these internals that show a stunning collapse in white support yet leave his overall support unchanged?
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