Replies

hb: [Well that won’t work. But I don’t think we yet have a full understanding of Xi’s motives. Certainly, the PLA is the foundation of party control, and how much difference these disgruntled veterans can make is anybody’s guess. I’m not holding my breath waiting for armed rebellion.]

dc: [China refusing to publicly admit that there had been casualties is very interesting. That is much like do not want to admit the number of dead for the Coronavirus.

If China was to get into a shooting war they would loose their public support quickly.]

There’s a perception among some Freepers that the Chinese hoi polloi are a bunch of docile drones who will fight to the death for the leader of the moment. That would be a huge change from the historical experience of Chinese rulers, starting with the creation of the unitary Chinese state out of the dozens of independent kingdoms that preceded it. The regime that created this empire collapsed immediately after the First Emperor died.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Gao#Coup_following_Qin_Shi_Huang’s_death

The regime that replaced him was founded by a peasant (the founder of the Han dynasty) - a draft dodger who figured if he was going to be asked to die in service of the emperor, he was better off risking his life fighting *against* the emperor for the very throne he sat on:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Gaozu_of_Han#Insurrection_against_the_Qin_dynasty

It’s hard to think of a pre-modern European equivalent to this man. Spartacus is close, but his revolt came up snake eyes. Whereas this no-account Chinese peasant (before his rise to the top) created an army from scratch, fought off his adversaries, ancien regime and rebel alike, grabbed the crown and then managed to prevent his ablest generals from seizing the throne from him. And this Chinese redneck’s regime lasted 400 years. And there are two more peasants who followed his unlikely path to power, spaced out by many centuries. One founded the Han dynasty and another founded the Red dynasty of today:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hongwu_Emperor#Early_life
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong#Early_life

And these are just the winners. Dozens of almost but not quite winners with peasant backgrounds came within striking distance of the throne. Two of the most prominent:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Zicheng#Early_years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Xiuquan#Early_life_and_education