Biden Leads Trump 50-36 (BYT/Sienna

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-new-york-times-poll/index.html ^

[dynachrome]

I use a mask poll. The karens in my area are winning.

[guido911]

Not sure if it dispirits me. I really am upset (if the right word) because there is just an absence of anything positive in this entire country. Seriously, the big news of today is that a former general with impeccable military cred had a criminal conviction contrived by the government overturned. And to more than 1/2 the country even this will be offensive. I need a cruise.

[DivineMomentsOfTruth]

Liberals HAVE to fabricate those poll numbers... so when they get caught cheating on election day, they can point to the BS polls.

My thoughts exactly.. They did the same thing in 2016!

[The Accused]

I’m not sure what polls are suppoded to measure this time of the year, but no one honestly believes that Biden would win by 14% if the election was held today. Polls are selling known bs at this point.

[central_va]

Ignore. This is the silly season. Quit posting polls.

[KobraKai]

Trump must smoke Biden out of his safe space hidey hole, or lose. He keeps letting the media and Fauci use coronavirus as an excuse to keep Biden hidden away from the public.

[a fool in paradise]

Nationally or just taking New York State and California?

[Meatspace]

“Polls in 1984 showed Mondale beating Reagan up till about two weeks before the election, at which point the MSM stopped releasing polling data.”

Fascinating.

I’ll have to research all the polling from 1984.

[Political Junkie Too]

How heavy did they oversample Dems.

This poll has two components, national and battleground states. The national results were released today; the battleground states will be released tomorrow.

From the Methodology document for the poll:

National Poll Demographics:

• Dem: 35
• Rep: 26
• Ind: 30
• Oth: 3

They go on to say:

• Reg. Dem: 33
• Reg. Rep: 28
• Reg. Oth: 38

This is a D+9 poll. If "Reg." means "registered," then I'm surprised that the poll has more people "registered" as a party other than Democrat or Republican.

Read the first half of the methodology document for all the sources for their weighting factors.

Some examples:

• "The parameter for self-reported educational attainment was based on a model of registration in the November 2016 voting and registration supplement to the Current Population Survey..."
• "Metropolitan status was determined based on the 2013 National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties."
• "respondent’s record on the voter file, unless the respondent refused to state their year of birth. The partisanship weight was based on party registration in the states where it was available. Elsewhere, partisanship was defined by participation in recent partisan primaries or, if neither party registration nor partisan primary vote was available, a model of vote choice in the 2016 presidential election."

-PJ

[chiller]

Ds like to claim that Hillary was disliked but everybody loves Joe.

Well, well, well.....there’s that senility thing, the enthusiam gap, the D establishment themselves doubting ol’ Joe, and the D thing.... Gestapo tactics demonstrated clearly in D strongholds for COVID and BLM. Not mention the economy that only DjT could repair in such short time.

The Gestapo will attract the few revolutionaries, but scare away just as many.

I always wonder how oversampled was this poll from the NYT, but its safe to say the NYT can’t see any Republicans anywhere outside of Manhattan.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Muzzling Fauci is an imperative at this point for Trump. The guy undercuts him at every turn. He misled Trump into approving the shutdown without an exit strategy. Now Trump is kind of mired in it and treading water. He needs to declare the pandemic over and start taking control of that narrative.

The other big thing hurting Trump IMHO is that he can’t continue to tweet about LAW AND ORDER while night after night people see images of chaos in the streets on television. If you are going to go out and bluster about taking firm action, you must actually TAKE firm action to restore order. Even if you have to fire your Defense Secretary and everyone at the Pentagon down to the rank of Lt. Colonel. Right now people are seeing no end to the twin downward spirals and they’re getting demoralized.

[The Accused]

From the pollster: We usually complete interviews with about 1 or 2 percent of the voters we try to reach. Low response rates undoubtedly pose a serious challenge to survey research, and there are some known response biases.

[Sans-Culotte]

The average voter isn’t a libertarian. When he sees Trump sneering at local governments that won’t enforce the law, he’s not laughing with Trump. He’s thinking of Trump as a modern day Nero, fiddling while Rome burns.

I tend to agree. I have been disappointed that the "right side" did not take action against the "wrong side" during the riots. Lots of FReepers think it is funny when blue cities go up in flames. However, almost all major cities are blue cities, even those in red states. If the only difference between "us" and "them" is that we don't condone rioting while allowing it to continue, then that's not much to go on.

Trump told one blue state mayor or governor that f they didn't shut it down, he would. That seemed about as empty a boast as Obama's red line against Syria.

[Tejas Rob]

First off, this is a national poll, which is worthless in a Presidential election due to the electoral college. State by state pols are all that matter.

Also, always look at a polls methodology, it tells you who they polled. This poll shows 466 Democrats and 341 Republicans. And the Dem leads the poll by a wide margin? Well, imagine that.

[1Old Pro]

Siena, nuff said. They are as bad as Quinnipiac.

[Sarah Barracuda]

If people want straight up Communism, cant stop them..if they want to destroy America and become a Communist crap hole who am I to stop them

[Buckeye McFrog]

800 people is a pathetic sample size in any case.

[Political Junkie Too]

The guts of the poll are behind a pay wall.

No, they're not. See here:

Biden Takes Dominant Lead as Voters Reject Trump on Virus and Race

More results.

Methodology

-PJ

[TermLimits4All]

I’m not worried about the left voters, what I’m worried about are the conservative voters. They sat on their laurels for the mid term election, many for the Presidential election too. If these folks do not stand in line to vote this country is finished.
Stock up on food and ammo folks we are in for a wild ride over the next several mo ths and possibly years.

It strikes we in the heart at just what the liberal left wants our kids to grow up in. We do need a reset and I’m absolutely fine if it means we have to fight a war in our country in order to save it being a keyboard warrior hasn’t worked for the right, the left has us outplayed at every turn. What is the solution?

[Political Junkie Too]

This is the national component of a fuller poll.

They will be releasing the battleground states tomorrow.

-PJ