[Texas Eagle]

How much of that came in from BLM?

[Signalman]

Shrillary spent $1B dollars and still couldn’t beat DJT who spent half as much.

[House Atreides]

I wonder how much of this is coming from and being redirected from contributions to Soros’ Black Lives Matter? And do the gullible BLM donors know that?

[apillar]

At least half of it is likely George Soros money funneled through shill names and addresses to get around the individual contribution limit.

[mass55th]

Laundered money.

[griswold3]

Does that include BLM, Inc donations to ActBlue?

[Taxman]

There is not enough money in the world to buy the US Presidency for Sleepy Sloe Joe!

[Carl Vehse]

$80.8 million aid and comfort to the domestic terrorist enemy.

[Political Junkie Too]

All:

I'm updating my election forecast model for 2020. I gave up midway through 2016 due to the absurdly false polls that were put out by the MSM. We'll see if they can do better this cycle. At least, there are sites like Statespoll.com that offer adjusted polls based on more reasonable turnout models that I will use.

That said, here is a preview:

Using the actual 2016 state by state results and applying a +/- 5% swing in votes, the following insights emerge as a starting point for future analysis:

• President Trump has a 58% probability of getting at least 270 Electoral College votes.
• The Democrats has a 40% probability of getting at least 270 Electoral College votes.
• The weighted average for President Trump is 276 Electoral College votes, with a 52.6% probability of getting more.
• The weighted average for the Democrat is 262 Electoral College votes, with a 47.5% of getting more.
• Critical states for President Trump:
  1. North Carolina (15 EV, Strong R) - 98.1% of the cases where Trump wins include North Carolina. It is a "must win" state. That's probably why the RNC chose to hold their convention there, and why the Democrat governor chose to play Covid politics with the RNC convention.
     • 10th on the Democrat list at 45.1%
  2. Arizona (11 EV, Strong R) - 93.1% of Trump wins include Arizona.
     • 11th on the Democrat list at 43.8%
  3. Florida (29 EV, Tilt R) - 92.3%. The RNC convention is being moved here.
     • 6th on the Democrat list at 82.0%
• Critical states for the Democrats:
  1. Colorado (9 EV, Strong D) - 99.8% of Democrat wins include Colorado.
     • 11th on Trump's list at 23.7%
  2. Nevada (6 EV, Lean D) - 99.3%.
     • 9th on Trump's list at 48.4%
  3. Maine (4 EV, Strong D) - 92.4%.
     • 10th on Trump's list at 36.9%
  4. Minnesota (10 EV, Lean D) - 92.4%.
     • 8th on Trump's list at 53.5%
• Top 10 Battleground States - states with the highest outcome uncertainty:
  1. Michigan (16 EV, Tilt R) - 82.7% uncertainty.
     • 78.0% critical for Trump.
     • 81.5% critical for Democrats.
  2. Wisconsin (10 EV, Tilt R) - 82.6% uncertainty.
     • 80.8% critical for Trump.
     • 74.1% critical for Democrats.
  3. Florida (29 EV, Tilt R) - 82.5% uncertainty.
     • 92.3% critical for Trump.
     • 82.0% critical for Democrats.
  4. Pennsylvania (20 EV, Tilt R) - 82.5% uncertainty.
     • 76.5% critical for Trump.
     • 73.2% critical for Democrats.
  5. New Hampshire (4 EV, Tilt D) - 81.3% uncertainty.
     • 68.6% critical for Trump.
     • 84.0% critical for Democrats.
  6. Arizona (11 EV, Strong R) - 77.1% uncertainty.
     • 93.1% critical for Trump.
     • 43.8% critical for Democrats.
  7. Minnesota (10 EV, Lean D) - 76.6% uncertainty.
     • 53.5% critical for Trump.
     • 92.4% critical for Democrats.
  8. North Carolina (15 EV, Strong R) - 75.5% uncertainty.
     • 98.1% critical for Trump.
     • 45.1% critical for Democrats.
  9. Nevada (6 EV, Lean D) - 72.2% uncertainty.
     • 48.4% critical for Trump.
     • 99.3% critical for Democrats.
  10. Maine (4 EV, Strong D) - 68.8% uncertainty.
      • 36.9% critical for Trump.
      • 92.4% critical for Democrats.

I will put out more reports as soon as the conventions pass and true candidate polling begins. I will also cross-post this report on related threads as appropriate.

-PJ

[G Larry]

How much help was Hillary’s cash advantage in 2016?

[ronnie raygun]

Corporations investing in BLM that goes right to the DNC coffers with no donation regulations, what a scam

[manc]

how many millions were funneled from the groups pretending to be for the guy who died

[Carriage Hill]

I don’t think there’ll be any in-person debates, as Biden’s so senile, and the DNC-Fake Media won’t be able to cover it up. He’ll claim the Red Chinese CCP flu virus death is too dangerous for his age, and the campaign will be all TV ads.

[Robert DeLong]

Biden didn’t launch his presidential campaign until April of last year and faced a competitive primary battle.

what a joke that line is, not to mention an out n out lie. Like Clinton primary, the rest were forced out.

[AzNASCARfan]

I wonder how much of that was the stimulus money poured back into the system, I know some of it was. I saw a bunch of posts over at the DUmp with the sheep saying they did not need or want it and donated it all, especially after the IRS letters and physical checks with Trump’s signature on them.

[RandallFlagg]

Gotta wonder how much of that money comes from illegally causing tax dollars being, ummmm....reallocated.