Historically most of the conflict over Kashmir has been with the Paki, not the Chinese. This is different. China seems to be seeking to strengthen tactical and strategic ties with Pakistan at Indias expense. China has the initiative and appears to be deliberate in pressing the advantage.I know.
My husband and I visited the areas, both Kashmir AND China. We were in the area just a little over three weeks.
I think that your analysis is right on the money.