CHINA AND HER NEIGHBORS
Posted on 05/28/2020 8:51:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
On May 26, Chinese President Xi Jinping told senior officers the Peoples Liberation Army and Peoples Armed Police Force increase "preparedness for armed combat" as well as other military tasks.
It is a chilling thought, but Xi may have several "tasks" in mind, for both the PLA and the PAP. Throttling Hong Kong immediately comes to mind. Beijing's communist government is on the verge of breaking the 1984 Sino-British treaty that guaranteed Hong Kong's autonomy through 2047.
Another round of armed imperial bullying in the South China Sea may be in the offing. In that tense sea, China's artificial islands and illegal maritime claims, backed by its armed forces, have literally stolen territory from neighboring nations.
China's land border touches 14 sovereign countries: Vietnam, Laos, Burma, Bhutan, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Russia and North Korea. China has territorial, political and ethno-cultural conflicts with several of these nations.
Consider India. Since China's 1950 invasion of Tibet, India and China have had a difficult security relationship. The two nuclear powers share a 3,500-kilometer border, and there are several boundary disputes. In the last six weeks, Indian media have reported that Indian and Chinese soldiers have clashed along what is called The Line of Actual Control threading through the Himalayas. In two skirmishes, soldiers suffered injury, one in India's Ladakh region and the other in the Naku La mountain pass in Sikkim. India and China constantly bicker over Ladakh and the Doklam plateau. However, Indian media have published satellite photos they claim prove several thousand Chinese soldiers have occupied Indian territory in the Galwan River valley. The South China Morning Post reported that Indian sources regarded Galwan and Naku La as new disputes.
Recall the 1962 Sino-Indian War. China acclimated an assault force, preparing infantry for high-altitude operations, and then conducted a quick offensive that punished the Indian Army. India remembers. Now the stage is set for a larger war. India can interdict China's sea-shipping supply line from Africa and southwest Asia. China has enlarged its navy and is acquiring bases in the Indian Ocean, including a seaport in Pakistan.
Vietnam could be a task with a sea dimension. China has seized Vietnamese areas in the South China Sea. The U.S. and China already clash in the South China Sea, and China has sparred with the Philippines as well. Beijing's belligerence is spurring closer U.S.-Vietnamese cooperation. Asia has experienced millennia of Chinese imperialism. Hanoi knows at least with the Americans you get rock 'n' roll.
But Vietnam is much more than a sea squabble. In 1979, China and Vietnam fought a brief but bloody border war. Chinese forces performed poorly. Vietnam inflicted very heavy casualties on the invading PLA. China remembers, with embarrassment. The PLA is now a modernized force.
Since 1949, Taiwan has been on the task list, but recent elections indicating Taiwan prefers complete independence have sparked threats by the communists to attack the island and "recover the lost province." For that, China's generals need air superiority over the Taiwan Strait. They are building air and missile forces with that in mind. They are also procuring amphibious warfare ships to move assault troops across the Taiwan Strait. However, Tiananmen Square and China's failure to respect its promises to protect Hong Kong's freedoms have stiffened Taiwan's spine.
Xi also told the PAP to prepare. Think of the PAP as an army tasked with internal repression and ensuring Communist Party control. Subduing and oppressing ethnic Turkic Uighurs in China's western Xinjiang province is a current PAP task. Landlocked Kazakhstan and Mongolia are appalled, but there is little they can do.
In fall 2019, elements of two PAP divisions deployed their armored cars and armored personnel carriers along Hong Kong's border. It is a chilling thought, but Xi might task the PAP and PLA with arresting, beating and perhaps killing pro-democracy Hong Kong citizens who refuse to kowtow to Beijing's communist dictators.
China’s land border touches 14 sovereign countries:..
wow
The Xi Pooh Flu was China’s first strike, against an unprotected flank. Their allies are the Democrats and the media, running cover for them, bought off by them.
Our 100,000 Americans dead by virus are War Dead, casualties of the strike.
Invasion of the Philippines. Already have long-range missile batteries aimed at Manila, Cebu and Palawan through the fake island military bases in the West Philippines Sea, some less than 50 miles from the Philippines mainland.
The PLA already has troops stationed there with approval from Duterte, according the Senator Lacson and many others.
Look at how much sea can be blockaded by the Chinese Communists if they take or control the Philippines.
The Filipinos today are not the same as the ones that fought along side of Americans in WWII, the Korean War or provided support in the Vietnam War. Too addicted to Facebook and social media.
This War with China is coming.
We need to get our guys out of SW Asia and start preparing for War with China.
When you don’t want War...you go with “Peace through Strength”
When you don’t want War and you don’t prepare...
War comes to you.
We have advantages and now due to our focus on SW Asia and Terrorism, they have some advantages.
1. We need better range on our anti Ship missiles and Surface targeted missiles. We need better Range on our Surface Strike Missiles. We also need to explain to China that if attacked, military bases in Southern China do not have safe harbor.
2. We need more Deep Strike Penetration like the B-21 Raider due to A)our Air Craft Carriers being limited and put at risk by Chinese A2/AD cruise missiles and ballistic Anti-Ship Missiles. B) We need to innovate and find away to extend our NavAir assets.
So if China attacks Taiwan, perhaps we arrange for a new generation of ‘liberator’ pistols in massive quantities to be airdropped by drones in NK and China’s western provinces. That ought to give Xi’s buds in the CCP something to worry about. Every pistol would mean a chance for the Uyghur, Nork or Chinese serfs to acquire a Chinese government made, real assault rifle.
We need a new ICBM program- yesterday.
We need to get our guys out of the ME and shore up our allies in the Pacific Rim.
wow
IMHO, by the time Xi’s reign is over, he will have made a play for Taiwan. And maybe more. What he’s doing over Hong Kong suggests he’s a man in a hurry. There is no pressing need to do anything about Hong Kong. In fact, it serves the same function that it did when China had a closed economy - it’s an economic valve for China to do business with the West much the way the West does business with other members of the club. By destroying Hong Kong’s protected status, and therefore the economic privileges HK retains with the West, he has signaled that he believes China doesn’t need this outlet.
Is China in a position to complete the task Xi has set out for it? It’s certainly possible. When Japan carried out the Pearl Harbor attacks, its economy (including its overseas possessions) was 1/5 the size of the US economy. China’s economy is half the size of the American economy today.
Note that Chinese conquerors have generally been content with incremental gains, whereas Japan wanted the whole enchilada, with troops positioned a hop and a skip away from Australia. So the entire Chinese military will be focused on its particular region of interest - the airspace and waters around Taiwan, which will make it much more challenging just in terms of the number of Chinese air and naval units that any country coming to Taiwan’s aid will have to face. I also expect him to attempt to cement China’s hold on the South China Sea by seizing foreign vessels passing through the region. We’ll see.
Xi Jinping’s recent moves are offensive, not defensive. It’s human nature to want more than you have. It’s why man’s long-ago ancestors were hairless apes who wore animal skins, mastered fire, crossed rivers and seas and hunted big game while their cousins - chimps, gorillas and orangutans - were content with staying where they were and dining on berries and roots.
The virus thing was probably an accident. But the outside hostility is the perfect opportunity for him to rally support for what he wanted to do anyway. It’s actually pretty standard practice to push your adversaries without quite crossing over into armed hostilities until they push back, so you can say the other guy started it. For instance, the winning of the West required relentless incursions into Indian territory until they began raiding colonial settlements. China’s expansion from a small kingdom on the banks of the Yellow River involved similar tactics. I’d say it was pretty much a universal tactic for any country of any size beyond a small village encompassing a few dozen people.
WE need much longer range and much more stealth cruise missile that can be launched without detectable plumes with greater payloads, more launch platforms (sea, land and air) in much greater numbers....and an Asian anti-ballistic (and otherwise) iron dome like systems with triple back-up coms capability.
Trying to limit a war to just the aims you want taken is a fool’s errand.
The first casualty of battle is your assessment of the enemies’ reaction.
The adversaries of China could/would move on vulnerable targets outside the Chinese war planners focus (Taiwan).
China’s military is picking fights with several boarder countries. They are trying to get the news off Hong Kong and the virus. And they are trying to dissuade foreign business’ from moving to countries like India, in fear that their may be a China/Indian war. If companies will just wait until the wind changes, China may be able to save some business.
[Trying to limit a war to just the aims you want taken is a fool’s errand.
The first casualty of battle is your assessment of the enemies’ reaction.
The adversaries of China could/would move on vulnerable targets outside the Chinese war planners focus (Taiwan).]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_in_the_Vietnam_War#Confronting_U.S._escalation
Xi may even have calculated that a Trump unwilling to bear the costs of continuing a fairly-trivial Afghan presence or bombing Iran proper in response to ballistic missile attacks against Saudi Arabia is unlikely to want to take on the heavy costs of warding off China’s limited military moves in Far East.
Let them become more aggressive. While I feel very sorry for those who will be immediately impacted, such will, in combination with how China screwed over the world with the Wuhan Virus, serve to wake up people to the evil that is the CCP. That will cause nations to unite in a new Cold War to contain and, ultimately, bankrupt China so that they can have a revolution like Russia did to get rid of the Communists there. If we don’t wake up and initiate containment and active measures to harm the Chinese economy, China will continue to grow in power and present a threat much like Germany did in 1939 - i.e. we’ll be at war with a strong enemy - this time with nukes and 4 times our population.
Re: Your history lesson. Answer: So?
Louis the XVII lost Canada to Britain in 1760. Then he tried to get even by backing the fledging USA’s independence in 1777. THAT ruined him financially and led to the 1789 French Revolution and ultimately his head. Napoleon rose from the “ashes” and drove all of Europe into maddening war for the next decade.
That all happened in fewer years than since now and the Korean War. MacArthur wanted to use A-bombs on the PRC and unleash the ROC. Shoulda, woulda, coulda.
The Chinese did NOT drive the USA out of Korea. Kim did not take over the whole peninsula, which was the goal of the entire war the Communists started. That intervention cost the PLA almost 1 million casualties. Sure, MacArthur was way too cocky and did not heed their warning, but the actual war aim of the United Nations and the USA was achieved.
The USA lost Vietnam when Congress refused to allow our treaty commitment to South Vietnam be applied when the North broke the Paris Peace Accords treaty in 1974, and we should have punished them, but were too wrapped up in ruining Republican President Nixon, to even care. Again, shoulda, woulda, coulda.
Again, miscalculations in war are part and parcel. The best plan, even carefully implemented, can ruin a nation because they miscalculate the will and strength of their enemy. That applies both ways, and the USA should be VERY fearful of a war with China, just as China should be VERY fearful of a war with the USA, especially if India gets involved, because the population advantage China has will vanish.
The initial plan almost never survives the first battles.
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