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[Trying to limit a war to just the aims you want taken is a fool’s errand.

The first casualty of battle is your assessment of the enemies’ reaction.

The adversaries of China could/would move on vulnerable targets outside the Chinese war planners focus (Taiwan).]

It worked for China when it aided North Korea and North Vietnam. Direct intervention against US forces that pushed the 8th Army from the Yalu River all the way back to Seoul did not result in US attacks against Chinese targets outside of the Korean area of operations. Its direct intervention by placing hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops in North Vietnam to deter US invasion did not cause US attacks against out of area Chinese targets, and even moderated the scale of US air attacks against North Vietnamese targets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_in_the_Vietnam_War#Confronting_U.S._escalation

Xi may even have calculated that a Trump unwilling to bear the costs of continuing a fairly-trivial Afghan presence or bombing Iran proper in response to ballistic missile attacks against Saudi Arabia is unlikely to want to take on the heavy costs of warding off China’s limited military moves in Far East.

Re: Your history lesson. Answer: So?

Louis the XVII lost Canada to Britain in 1760. Then he tried to get even by backing the fledging USA’s independence in 1777. THAT ruined him financially and led to the 1789 French Revolution and ultimately his head. Napoleon rose from the “ashes” and drove all of Europe into maddening war for the next decade.

That all happened in fewer years than since now and the Korean War. MacArthur wanted to use A-bombs on the PRC and unleash the ROC. Shoulda, woulda, coulda.

The Chinese did NOT drive the USA out of Korea. Kim did not take over the whole peninsula, which was the goal of the entire war the Communists started. That intervention cost the PLA almost 1 million casualties. Sure, MacArthur was way too cocky and did not heed their warning, but the actual war aim of the United Nations and the USA was achieved.

The USA lost Vietnam when Congress refused to allow our treaty commitment to South Vietnam be applied when the North broke the Paris Peace Accords treaty in 1974, and we should have punished them, but were too wrapped up in ruining Republican President Nixon, to even care. Again, shoulda, woulda, coulda.

Again, miscalculations in war are part and parcel. The best plan, even carefully implemented, can ruin a nation because they miscalculate the will and strength of their enemy. That applies both ways, and the USA should be VERY fearful of a war with China, just as China should be VERY fearful of a war with the USA, especially if India gets involved, because the population advantage China has will vanish.

The initial plan almost never survives the first battles.