Posted on 05/18/2020 6:17:00 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Might take a look at oil price’s.
The short sellers will be out soon.
:)
First, that’s all great news and I am glad for your wife.
And yeah man I have a stack saved for when things get rocking. Saved a lot in 2 months.
Oh but it was a good idea to add SIX HUNDRED DOLLARS to state unemployment checks.
Because a guy who was making 500 a week is gonna run back even though he is getting EIGHT FIFY a week now.
It’s bad enough it goes to end of July. That’s because fauci et al promised that quadrillions would die and it would last forever.
Now dems want to expand it until January.
It should be CUT SHORT, not lengthened.
But at the very most, end of July is plenty.
Yeah, like 30 or so years from now for most people.
As a long time investor (since 1986), it simply doesn't matter what the markets close at TODAY. Or TOMORROW. Or the next day. I rode out the 1987 crash, the dot.com bust, the housing bubble, even Obama.
In fact, I remember my co-workers back in 1987 (1987!) fretting about their 401k's during that year's crash. Back then, Japan was basically about to buy the United States and put us all into servitude and a decades long recession. According to the "experts" of the time.
To use a metaphor, in the last 3 months, 700 point swings have been weather, not climate. Just expected volatility,
Noticed energy stocks exploded up this morning.
I've been in the stock market and investing part of every paycheck since 1985. I remember the crash of 1987, I was working at a small software company and worried I was going to lose my job (I did.) I managed to find another in a few short weeks and made more than the job I was riffed from.
Here I am all these years later and I'm not worried. Whatever's going to happen is going to happen. Invest responsibly, know how to manage your assets to protect yourself and if one cannot do that find a good investment advisor (fee based) and don't react emotionally to the markets.
Warren Buffet said it best: when others are panicking, you should be buying.
It’s because America is fighting back.
A daily chart looks like the EKG of someone having a heart attack.
And yet Buffett himself isn’t buying... and wasn’t buying even during the March 2020 lows. Which is interesting to me because he’s sitting on a huge cash pile and could certainly afford to nibble a bit. He’s made a lot of mistakes over the past decade (his big bets on IBM and the airlines come to mind) and has been underperforming for a long time.
Yet, given his past record of success, any investor should at least take note of Buffett’s current pessimism. I’m not as pessimistic as he is; I was buying in March when things were really tanking. But I’m not sold on this current rally. There’s a ton of optimist on Wall Street, but the reality on main street is pretty damned bad for a lot of people, and I mostly blame the Democrat/blue-state politicians for keeping too much locked down for too long. I know people whose businesses aren’t coming back from this (i.e., restaurants). I know people whose jobs aren’t coming back to what they were (i.e., commercial airline pilots), at least anytime soon.
And while I say most people should be thinking 30 years or so out, they still need to keep in focus when they expect to retire and slowly ratchet back the % of their portfolio in high risk.
Reason I'm not worried about these markets so much at my age is that I now have a significant portion of my 401(k) out of the volatile stocks as I look to be retired within 10 years and can't afford a catastrophic downturn as easily as I could years ago with a lot of working years still ahead of me.
I don't have a Buffett size pile of cash sitting on the sidelines but I have some and was looking to invest back in March and April. I'm not a market timer, I'm not looking to get in at the very low's and sell at the very high's -- no way I can do that with the little time I have to watch the markets.
What I was looking for to put some of my cash reserves in the market was "where's the floor stable at?" and to that end I didn't invest in the 17's or 18's because it was still too volatile. I put some cash in around 20,000 and am happy with that. I'm sitting on the rest of my reserves "just in case" I lose my job. I have three years of cash reserves to take me to retirement and may have to work part time a bit (If I lose my job) to carry me another year beyond that. Depends on how much more I can cut of my expenses of course.
“Polls show many Americans have money they are waiting to spend.”
That’s right. Money hasn’t been destroyed, it has just been stopped from flowing. Once things open up the spending will resume.
“The big issue is going to be getting the world wide supply chain up and running again. Opening a restaraunt or local service industry will look good for a couple of weeks. But there is such a disruption around the world, it will be difficult to get started again.”
The point is it will. And that’s what the market focuses on. That it might be one or two quarters later is irrelevant to investors chomping at the bit to not miss the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
“Once things open up, their old jobs are likely to come racing back.”
The other thing that has to happen is to immediately stop all this money giveaway where people are making more staying home than working.
A lot of companies are having trouble getting people because of that. No more porkuluses!
Don’t know what is the cut off line for pessimists, but a 55% increase in value in 2 months ought to take large bite out of it.
I just drive down a highway in DFW. Things are NOT back to normal.
“Don’t know what is the cut off line for pessimists, but a 55% increase in value in 2 months ought to take large bite out of it.”
You’re being an optimist about pessimists. :)
I guess time will tell.
If I am thinking about this the way I was taught in economics back in the distant past, the stock and bond markets tend to move in opposite directions.
The bond markets are pricing with very low interest rates right now. This means that the price for a bond is high. If the stock market were to move up considerably, either the inflow of money will cause inflation in prices or the interest rates on bonds will need to start moving up considerably to change the flow of money out of bonds.
So my concern is that “free cash” is moving into the markets—this generally means retail investors. Obviously, retail investors range in their ability to move a market.
If this is a “recovery” based on retail investors, then I am much more skeptical than even before. Retail investors are more “lucky” than “right.”
It would not be the first time I read this stuff wrong. Which is why most of my money is in places where I cannot make stupid mistakes. ha Ha.
This isn't just NOLA. It's the entire country, the entire world. Like a flood.
Just sayin'.
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