Increases in suicides and overdoses are a legitimate problem that is dwarfed by COVID deaths, but still needs attention.
What about suicides due to chronic problems from getting COVID? Has anyone thought about that? Not all suicides are shutdown related.
"In 2018, there were 48,344 recorded suicides, up from 42,773 in 2014, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)."
"In 2018, 67,367 drug overdose deaths occurred in the United States."
This article predicts that each percent of unemployment leads to a 3.3% increase in drug overdoses and a 1% increase in suicide then.
And increase from 3% to 15% unemployment is 12%. We should see a 36% increase in drug overdoses and a 12% increase in suicide.
A 12% increase in suicide * 48,000 existing suicides = 5760 additional suicides due to COVID.
And a 36% increase in drug overdoses * 67,000 existing overdose deaths = 24,120 drug overdose deaths.
You’re largely right. The mistake the doctor makes is applying statistics about long term unemployment to what hopefully will be an aberration in unemployment statistics. Though unemployment often rises in relatively short order, sometimes a quarter or two or less, it’s decline usually takes many months or years. Using your example, were unemployment, after spiking to 15% were to decline but stay above 8 to 10% for several years, I suspect those numbers would be correct. Hopefully we’ll see a return to low single digits by yearend or shortly thereafter. Of course since her point was to equate the ancillary deaths with corona deaths, she had to massage the statistics a bit.