Posted on 05/03/2020 12:41:04 AM PDT by Zhang Fei
When reports about the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 began circulating earlier this year and questions were being raised about how the illness it causes, COVID-19, compared to the flu, it occurred to me that, in four years of emergency medicine residency and over three and a half years as an attending physician, I had almost never seen anyone die of the flu. I could only remember one tragic pediatric case.
Based on the CDC numbers though, I should have seen many, many more. In 2018, over 46,000 Americans died from opioid overdoses. Over 36,500 died in traffic accidents. Nearly 40,000 died from gun violence. I see those deaths all the time. Was I alone in noticing this discrepancy?
I decided to call colleagues around the country who work in other emergency departments and in intensive care units to ask a simple question: how many patients could they remember dying from the flu? Most of the physicians I surveyed couldn’t remember a single one over their careers. Some said they recalled a few. All of them seemed to be having the same light bulb moment I had already experienced: For too long, we have blindly accepted a statistic that does not match our clinical experience.
The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.scientificamerican.com ...
Thank you for posting this. It was a revelation to me years ago when I learned the seasonal flu numbers are made up.
This ER doc claims he’s only seen one patient die of the flu, compared to many who have died from gunshot wounds, traffic accidents and opioid overdoses. Yet flu deaths are said to be on par or higher than those categories. He suggests that the flu death estimate is systematically wrong, and the methodology needs to be revised sharply downwards, perhaps to match the covid-19 methodology, which is to count only actuals.
[Thank you for posting this. It was a revelation to me years ago when I learned the seasonal flu numbers are made up.]
But how do you know that Covid-19 deaths are not being recorded just as haphazardly?
but I too can't say I've seen flu deaths...and I've been in the business for decades...
so they guessed...
its no different with THE COVID.....they are testing but a lot of guessing is going on too...
and there is the idea that people that come in with covid don't necessarily die of that....its contributing just as flu would contribute....
I also think a large number of deaths occurred because of each state allowing only certain treatments...
how many less deaths in NYC if the H/A/Z trifecta had been used?
[and there is the idea that people that come in with covid don’t necessarily die of that....its contributing just as flu would contribute....]
This is a bit bizarre. I have to agree you will not see any death certificate with “flu” on it. What they record is pneumonia, and complications from pneumonia. This is equated to the flu. This guy is just playing games.
The CDC data clearly says pneumonia just the same.
American Lung Association: Most common cause of pneumonia is the flu.
https://www.lung.org/lung-health-diseases/lung-disease-lookup/pneumonia/what-is-the-connection
Other causes: Bacteria, Fungi
https://www.lung.org/lung-health-diseases/lung-disease-lookup/pneumonia/what-causes-pneumonia
But people don’t come in dying of the flu.. but they do roll in all of the time dying from pneumonia.
Right - my brother (smoker, under 60 at the time) went to the ER with flu, was admitted to the hospital, worsened and sent to the ICU, was then intubated (not sure on exact timing as I was over 1k miles away), ended up with what the Dr. said was necrotic pneumonia and came about || far from leaving us... He lost ~2/3 of his lung function (one side is basically gone, the other damaged but with rehab he can get by as long as strenuous effort is not needed.)
If he’d not made it, would he be classified as a flu death?
This is somewhat reminiscent of the question “What killed that guy”? The finger on the trigger, the gun, or the bullet?
n the example of my brother, he was quite active and externally seemed fairly healthy, very few sick days @ work, etc. He had a bit of a “smoker’s cough”, tho’. (Not bad.)
Covid-19 deaths are almost certainly being underreported. There is a lot of evidence that more people are dying than usual in almost every area with significant infection, despite the lockdowns and stay-at-home orders preventing a significant number of traffic and accidental deaths.
In a year or two, we’ll get a final tally and it will probably be 20-30% higher than what we’re hearing now.
[Thank you for posting this. It was a revelation to me years ago when I learned the seasonal flu numbers are made up.]
If flu deaths are truly as the CDC claims, then over the years more and more people would know someone who died from it (including those who developed into something serious and died), and people’s reaction to the flu would not be oh, it’s just the flu, as it has always been.
This!
The article also claims "The former are actual numbers"
the latter are inflated statistical estimates" (it says)
I suspect those "actual numbers" are a bit of a mess as well...
At this point we're flirting with Global Great Depression
leading to global government or world war, and the loss of millions
or billions of lives in the long run.
Plannedemic indeed.
If America is going to survive that, or the next bio-weapon
planned for us, then we best get the country back to work.
The constitution violating corrupto-crats got their
little taste of power and in fevered desperation wish to
turn it into "The New Normal".
Seen enough yet?
I trust my immune system a LOT more than I trust some
of these governor's "help".
And the Spanish flu was not real either.
SciAm normally would call this article conspiracy theory.
The computer models for the Wuhan bat coronavirus are like the “systems” that pop up from time to time for “winning” at Las Vegas. They don’t predict very well.
The author gets the 15,620 number from the CDC “FluView” site for the bad 2017-2018 flu season. That number is for death certificates listing only “influenza” (does not include pneumonia deaths caused by the flu)(the “gotcha”).
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html (you have to pick a flu season and download the .CSV to see all of the weeks in the season)(a pain).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
Anybody who dies, for whatever reason, if they test positive for covid-19, it’s attributed to covid-19.
IIRC, and I’m not sure how accurate the stat, but something like 25% of people with covid-19 are asymptomatic, 80% are asymptomatic to mild symptoms.
That tells me that there a lot of people who die, for whatever reason, test positive for covid-19 and death is attributed to covid-19.
Every COVID infected person who dies is counted as a COVID fatality, regardless of any other diseases that might be present.
In addition, the CDC has authorized and encouraged nursing homes and hospitals to review recent deaths that were not tested for COVID. If the victim had flu-like symptoms before dying, the cause of death is changed to COVID-19.
If influenza deaths were calculated the same way, we would have at least 250,000 flu deaths EVERY year!
The author also makes an astonishing error about pneumonia deaths:
“...the CDC’s flu numbers also include pneumonia deaths.”
Totally false.
Influenza and pneumonia deaths are listed in separate columns in the CDC’s Weekly Influenza Surveillance Report.
On average, less than 10% of pneumonia deaths are reported as influenza deaths.
In sharp contrast, every COVID infected person who dies of pneumonia is counted as a COVID death!
The CDC-approved COVID-19 methodology is to count actuals and suspecteds. Proof is not required.
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