Numbers don’t line up: Case for panicking over coronavirus is falling apart

LifeSiteNews/Remnant ^ | April 8, 2020 | Christopher Ferrara

[Fury]

Re: 36 - LOL!!!!!

I have a cat that does that. Even looks around to make sure I’m not nearby before he pushes stuff off the counter. Caught him doing the looking about via a video camera.

He was shocked when I came out of nowhere with the spray bottle already going!

[dragnet2]

The virus got loose before it was weaponized and a vaccine and treatment developed for it.

Do we know positively the Communist Chinese do not have a vaccine? I personally believe very little of anything coming out of Communist China.

[DoughtyOne]

I think a lot of us tried to downplay the hysteria, but the
panic even here was orbital.

Look, I think what is taking place is bad, but it’s
essentially an acolyte of the seasonal flu.

Why do I say that? I say that because we take millions of
infections, hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations in
stride when it’s the flu.

When it’s Covid-19, we count every single case, post every
single hysterical article we can find, and play act that
every single bad story is ‘the only story’.

Even Conservatives fall for this nonsense. And then on top
of that you have to deal with the media, the screw off
Leftists, and the idiots in power that say just anything
they want off the top of their head, with no rhyme or reason
to it.

That Fauci is an absolute ignorant despicable man.

Hey says the most incredible things, and nobody calls him on
it.

Example: We can’t go back to normal until there is a vaccine
against this.

Does this guy know that HIV came about in the 1980s, and
there is no vaccine today?

That guy is a skid mark on our nations honor.

[Drago]

Totally depends on how many people have COVID-19 currently and have had COVID in the recent past and gotten over it w/o being “officially counted”.

If about 11 million Americans currently have or have had COVID in the past then COVID-19 is about as bad a as a “really bad” regular flu year. (0.14% fatality rate). If 15 million have had it then COVID is about the same as a “regular” flu year (0.10% fatality rate).

If only 5 million Americans have or have had it, then COVID is 3x as deadly as regular flu.

I have heard several doctors “guesstimate” that 3%-5% of the total population are undetected COVID cases/past cases, that would mean 10 - 17 million people.

Not enough testing to know the “denominator”...need more testing for current cases and lots of serology/antibody tests for “recovered” case detection too!

[lodi90]

Healthy young people are not dropping like flies from the Wu Flu. It’s a nasty bug targeting the already compromised and the very elderly almost in full. We seem to be forgetting that 15% of the 80+ cohort die every year.

I’ve seen nothing that warranted $10 trillion in spending and nuking the economy. If that’s the bill for a virus with limited reach what will we do when the real super bug hits?

[RasterMaster]

2 trillion China reparations (TBD)

The U.S. debt to China is $1.07 trillion as of December 2019.
www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355

The Biggest American Companies Now Owned by the Chinese
https://fortune.com/2016/03/18/the-biggest-american-companies-now-owned-by-the-chinese/

What does China own in the U.S.?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsbHS3VtCvM

Chinese investments in the United States
https://www.aei.org/china-tracker-home/

See another target-rich environment across the United States...seize them all!

[kalee]

For later

[Mrs. Don-o]

Is that true? Can you point me to a good summary article on Y2K? Because I read that countries like Italy that did practically no modifications, no rewriting of code or whstever, fared exactly like countries who put in a million man-hours. It was a dud.

No?

[DoodleBob]

I would like to begin this much shorter article

Let me just say, up-front, that I don't believe Christopher Ferrara is capable of concise writing. Even when I agree with his premise, I have to wade through 2500+ words to get to the point. THIS tome clocked in at 2,772 words. Find an editor, Chrissy.

All over the country people are being fined or arrested and jailed for violating suddenly imposed restrictions on their every movement and gathering,

Fair enough, but a few hundred words later, Mr. Ferrara says

The following are the nine states that have refused to impose lockdowns.

So, which one is it, Christopher Robin? Is this an all over the country thang, or are there pockets that "have seceded from the United States of Mitigation"? Again...Chris...the word for which you're seeking is EDITOR.

I agree with Mr. Ferrara that the Numbers don’t line up. However, it's Chris' numbers that don't line up. For example:

It is becoming clearer with each passing day that the death toll from the Wuhan virus is not rising exponentially as the “experts” predicted but only modestly in some places while leveling off or even declining almost everywhere else in the country

Let's take this bit by bit. First...I agree that the 'it's exponential, bro' hysterics are as bad as the flubros. Virus cases and deaths actually follow a logistic pattern.

However, if you plot the daily cumulative fatality count for the US from March 5 to today, and fit an exponential curve to the data without time-series adjustments, you get y = 7.231e^0.2259x; R² = 0.9941. So, for now, actually, it IS following an exponential path thought I will say, the last few days cumulative counts are below the fitted curve.

As for the second part of the above rant - while leveling off or even declining almost everywhere else in the country - that's simply not true. Actual, real numbers are your friend. Go to GitHub and get the daily case data: over the past five days, the percentage growth of fatalities by state was 3%+ for at least 35 states by day, and up to 44 states for some days. If I crank up the percentage threshold to 10%, the fewest number of states with such as gain falls to 24 - certainly not a majority but hardly almost everywhere.

By the end of this 2700+ word diatribe, where Chris certainly commits a few venial sins ("Scarf Lady"...really, Chrissy?) not to mention a heaping helping of pride, Chris says:

As the real data emerge

The thing about this whole article, is that Ferrera has some legitimate points. But man o man o manischewitz, after tedious, sloppy writing, ad hominem attacks, factual inaccuracies, and inconsistencies, with friends like Chris...

[Shethink13]

SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)

Well at least you actually clicked on the link I provided, but you apparently lack reading comprehension skills because you conveniently ignored this:

SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)

SARS-CoV is the BETA or initial coronavirus. SARS-CoV-2 is "named" novel, but does not mean it is novel as it is a second version of the original SARS virus. They included SARS in the name for a reason, because although this is a different version the etiology is exactly the same.

[Shethink13]

All over the country people are being fined or arrested and jailed for violating suddenly imposed restrictions on their every movement and gathering,

Fair enough, but a few hundred words later, Mr. Ferrara says

The following are the nine states that have refused to impose lockdowns.

So, which one is it, Christopher Robin? Is this an all over the country thang, or are there pockets that "have seceded from the United States of Mitigation"? Again...Chris...the word for which you're seeking is EDITOR.

Must the two comments be mutually exclusive in your opinion? I do not see them as contradictory. Saying "all across the country" is not the same as saying "all the country" or "the whole country".

With all due respect, I don't think it's a problem with the writing but a problem with taking his commentary as a personal affront.

[Shethink13]

Not enough testing to know the “denominator”...need more testing for current cases and lots of serology/antibody tests for “recovered” case detection too!

COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test

FDA approved on March 16th. Get 'er done!

[Magic Fingers]

“We’ll never know for sure the consequences had we not taken the actions we did.”

Exactly.

[tbw2]

Feds classifying all coronavirus patient deaths as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause
https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-patient-deaths-as-covid-19-deaths/

[tbw2]

Feds classifying all coronavirus patient deaths as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause
https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-patient-deaths-as-covid-19-deaths/

[VanShuyten]

Using the current deaths/million from this site,

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

you get about 13,000 deaths in the US at 39.39 deaths/million. That compares with about 14,000 deaths in Spain, which only has 46.75 million people, but a current rate of 300/million. If the US rate approaches Spain’s, we could lose 100,000.

We may have been seriously hoodwinked, but won’t know for several weeks.

[Falconspeed]

“I have to wade through 2500+ words to get to the point.”

Agree 100%. Mr. Ferrara is a very bright lawyer. Sadly, he highlights speaking opportunities and downplays prayer and study opportunities. Ferrara is over extended and probably gets paid five cents a word like Dickens.

Corona Virus Number 19 has frightened a lot of wimpy people, such as liberal teachers, liberal politicians and liberal parents, who went to their rooms quickly. Closing school for the semester? Silly. Stopping MLB baseball games? Ridiculous.

Bottom line: Covid 19 has motivated a lot of lazy people to go home, shut the door, and get bossy.

[Drago]

Thanks fr the antibody test link! Nice to know that someone has mass production going on antibody tests. Next step is to get them on the shelf near the home pregnancy tests in WalMart! ;-)

[TBP]

The left wants people to die.

[Jaded]

Maybe so. More people are starting paying attention to the numbers and starting to ask questions like “wtf, 49 deaths out of 5 million people”?

It is a serous virus to be sure but so Is the regular flu for many with underlying conditions.

I’m I’m a borderline “flubra” at this point but I feel it is covering something else. I wish I could shake that feeling but something sinister is simmering just under the surface. When enough people see it, the blowback will not be pretty. Until then welcome to Martial Law Lite.