Posted on 04/05/2020 11:46:05 PM PDT by Oshkalaboomboom
Herd immunity vs reality - It pretty much means that the Swedes are accepting the COVID-19 mortality rate. If it is 1%, then they lose 100,000 people. I guess it sounded better before it started to happen.
There are only 7 coronaviruses known to infect humans. 4 of them cause the common cold. These are known as (HCoV)-NL63, -OC43, -229E, and -HKU1. Being fairly harmless, these 4 have been very well studied, and do not result in a long term immune response or immunity.
SARS-COV, AKA SARS, has been shown in small studies to result in an antibody response for up to 6 years after recovery. This has only been tested with deactivated virus, as obviously SARS is too dangerous for live virus testing, or to allow wide spread to achieve herd immunity.
MERS-COV, AKA MERS, was shown in a small study to provide at least 10 months immunity in 7 of 9 patients, and at least 18 months immunity in 2 of 9. The 7 that had shorter term immunity were those who's infection did not advance to severe pneumonia. The 2 with an 18 month response were critically ill with severe pneumonia. Like SARS, these tests were with deactivated virus, as MERS is too dangerous for live virus testing.
The 7th coronavirus to infect humans is SARS-COV2, AKA COVID-19. At this point, we are less than 5 months removed from Patient Zero in Wuhan, and have no idea how the immune system of recovered patients will respond. Obviously, we are hoping long term herd immunity is a possibility. Short of that, at least short term immunity and a vaccine that can be given to the vulnerable annually, and widely deployed in case of a new outbreak.
If Sweden’s approach were to be continued (apparently, they've changed strategies); we would have had the makings of a natural experiment. We could see how the overall infection rate was mitigated, and (before long) learn the effects on the total deaths. That would be very useful information, for determining when it's reasonable to reopen the economy.
If Sweden's medical resources (hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators) do not become overwhelmed; then, they might not have any larger death rate than Norway (other things being equal). If the medical resources become overwhelmed, that would definitely increase the rate in Sweden.
Had Sweden continued, we would have had a natural experiment — one, which would have served as a control group to test the utility of the extreme-social-distancing strategy. I’m not, in any way, advocating against social distancing — but, it is interesting to note that there is no equivalent of the double-blind randomly-assigned control group clinical studies being used to test the malaria drugs, etc. IOW, the evidence favouring the social-distancing strategy is anecdotal.
Thank you
This is a quote from a youtube channel called donze52
It is based in McCook, Nebraska
I found it of interest.
“Jim Jackle
Jim Jackle
6 days ago
Here is how I cured this covid crap. There aren’t many tests in Oklahoma, but I’m 99.9% sure I had this, because the symptoms are identical to what people reported in Europe. I had a low grade fever and runny nose for 2 weeks. I just thought I had a bad cold and nothing else.
After 2 weeks the fever broke, and I felt back to normal, but then the next day all hell broke loose and this virus attacked my lungs like nothing I’ve ever seen. I was gasping for air and felt like I was drowning on the fluid it was causing. It was going balls to the wall apesht crazy in my airways. The attack happened so fast that I barely had time to think, but I ran in and got my hair dryer, and started breathing in the hot air to slow the virus replication.
This virus was replicating like a Mother F’er, but that hot air slowed it down where I wasn’t suffocating.
After I kicked its ass with my hair dryer and slowed the replication and the fluid it was causing, I put a space heater in my car and stayed in there for 2 days.
I used the car, because it was a small space that could easily be heated above 95 degrees. After 48 hours in the car/oven, all of the virus was killed out of my airways and I was cured. Fortunately I had been studying information about this virus and knew how to kick its ass with heat.
Lab tests were done on this virus in India that showed the virus was killed out at an air temperature above 95 degrees for 48 hours.
Another test done in Europe showed this virus replicated the fastest at an air temperature of 47.6 degrees.
Interestingly my attack happened in an air temp of 50 degrees. Had I not studied this virus and knew about how it behaved, I would have stayed in that 50 degree air and this thing would have kept replicating and killed me.
This dam thing reminds me of a bioweapon, because it attacked and replicated at a speed like no other virus I have seen. If you look at the earth, this virus is rampaging in a narrow band around the world where temps are between 41-51 degrees.
If you go below that band where temps are warmer, they have a few cases, but it’s nothing like it is in places like Northern Italy, Spain and NY where temps are hovering in the 40’s to low 50’s.
Anyway, the objective is to kill this virus and so far the doctors don’t have a pill to kill it, so you have to use a different weapon. If you think about it, mother nature uses hot air to kill viruses. Every year the air warms and the hot air enters people’s nasal passages and destroys the viruses, which ends our flu and cold season. It doesn’t matter if the sun warms the air, a hair dryer warms the air, or a space heater warms the air, it’s gonna have the same virus killing effect.
There are so many things wrong with the man from Oklahoma’s summations about how he knew that he killed a replicating virus or how he knew he had covid19.
But.....
The use of dry heat to keep the nasal and bronchial passages warmer and dryer might need more exploration. However, dryer air can be shown to complicate the expectoration of sticky phlegm by making it more sticky and therefor more sticky to cough out. The use of expectorants such as guaifenesin adds water though to the mucoid glands and can make removal by coughing easier.
Dry air has less density than a similar volume of cold air. Moisture is often added to a vent system in the hospital and the air is prewarmed to 93 degrees as it goes into a person’s lungs.
Pre-vent status though, I wonder if a hotter dryer lighter air pressure environment is better for lung healing...
Guayaquil, where bodies are left in the street because the hospitals are overwhelmed, has temps in the 90’s every day. Warm weather doesn’t appear to be slowing it down in the slightest.
but, it is interesting to note that there is no equivalent of the double-blind randomly-assigned control group clinical studies being used to test the malaria drugs,
______
Of course not, it is immoral and not permitted under research rules.
essentially a dry sauna??
tuberculosis patients used to be sent to hot dry places to prolong their life.
Hm.
Just for clarity, the point I was trying to make is that the effectiveness of the social distancing strategy is just anecdotal — there is no control group. All countries are following (roughly) the same strategy. The only “control group” comprises the predictive models that purport to show what would have happened, in the absence of the treatment. The “experimental design” is really no stronger than the anecdotal evidence regarding the effectiveness of the malaria drugs and zinc. IOW, we will never really know what difference the social distancing strategy made.
Contrast that with the natural experiment comparing free enterprise to communism. There were plenty of countries in each camp; and now, after running the experiment for a century, we have comparative results.
really, I thought there were some post facto studies from the 1918 epidemic.
Sweden-bashing without looking at the data. Just believe what Daily Mail publishes, because it fits a doomsday POV.
What can we do? Nobody posted any links to the Chaguito Times so we can get the real story.
Clever reply. You have access to the same unbiased information at, e.g., worldometers.info as I do.
Here’s a straightforward exercise. Compare cases per million population for Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. Do the same for deaths per million. Check the rank ordering in each case. See if Sweden stands out from its neighbors enough to warrant the headline of the article you posted.
Here’s an even more straightforward exercise. When you see an article you consider to be slanted or biased and you have better information to dispute it, post it so everyone reading the thread can have access to it. Trite generalizations don’t cut it and if you limit your exercises to only me then you miss the chance of clearing up any misconceptions everyone reading the thread has. A simple “Fake News” works wonders when you’re the POTUS. In threads like this? Not so much.
Bookmark.
To date, Sweden has 68 deaths/million.
Well, I’ve posted it three times, but I guess it gets lost in the crowd.
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