COVID-19 Update - 04/05/2020

My own workup | 04/05/2020 | DoughtyOne

[icclearly]

Our daily case growth is moving back in the right direction per the chart below.  I took the liberty of guessing where the new cases would end the day based on where we are now (3 PM CDT)..  Even if I'm off by a thousand, we still have a decent little trend underway.

Alert, though.  In one of my previous comments a few days ago I mentioned that we see a spike every four or five days.  We are due for one if that pattern holds true.

I also posted under another topic an additional chart about testing at this link -- https://bit.ly/2VamxwS, if anyone wants to look over the testing data.  My initial observation is that yesterday saw a big jump in testing as noted in that chart.  So my guess is that movement will begin to show up in more cases per day in a few more days.

If only we can stay here and start to see a decline in the day over day increases. To me, that will be a good indication of the beginning of the end of this craziness!

IC CLEARLY

click on image to enlarge

Data from Worldometer

[DoughtyOne]

Thank you for the link.

I wasn’t sure about the guy at first, but he delivered a
pretty good message overall.

[DoughtyOne]

There is an official record out there for all diseases.

We may not like the numbers and criticize them, but when
reading back about the disease a decade from now, it’s all
you have to go by.

Otherwise all you have to go by is, “Well, it was pretty bad.” “How bad?” “Well I don’t know, but it was pretty bad.”

[DoughtyOne]

I don’t think so either.

The dynamic most people don’t think of right away, is that we have 330 million, and South Korea has 52 million.

we have 6.5 times more people.

So we can smoke them by a factor of four in numbers of tests and still be way behind them.

[DoughtyOne]

Facilities will tell you where you need supplies.

[wastoute]

And I’m sure that will be part of matching resources to demands. (Facility requests).

[DoughtyOne]

Thank you for the links.

I don’t think the mortality rate is going to come in anywhere
even remotely close to 5%.

In fact it will be very minuscule when all is said and done.

The known cases won’t even come close, and there will be
hundreds of thousands if not millions of cases that didn’t
warrant anything more than a day or two of rest.

They won’t even be recorded.

I do feel bad about the people who have died, but then
folks hold them up as what to expect. Nonsense.

I have a person close to me that has it. That person went
through a couple of days of discomfort, and is now back
to about 98% of normal.

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks again...

[DoughtyOne]

They should be kept separate.

They are two different infections.

[DoughtyOne]

Yeah, that about sums it up.

[DoughtyOne]

No it’s not, and you know it’s not if you think about it.

There are far too many people getting this and not heavy
symptoms for it to be a big killer.

The mortality rates are skewed, because there are so many
people who have very mild symptoms out there.

This is affecting an awful lot of people like a mild case of
the flu.

[combat_boots]

“#resistance”

CDC employees crying in the halls when PTrump was elected.

Then, there’s the $$$$$$$$$$$ to be made from delay.

[Balding_Eagle]

A question to confirm that I’m reading your information correctly.

Total deaths in the US as of the 4th is 8454? Correct?

[EVO X]

I wasn’t sure about the guy at first, but he delivered a pretty good message overall.

He didn't hit the all clear button, but he has seen enough to suggest how deal with the virus. I wouldn't get on a NYC subway after watching his video...

[DoughtyOne]

A suggested calculation to determine effectiveness of
sheltering.

Numerator is number of new cases.

Denominator is total cases less total deaths less total
resolves. Did you mean recoveries there?

I consider a resolved case to be a death or a recovery.
I add them together to get the resolved cases number.

Compare percentage changes. My eyeballing says we
went from over 20z% infection rate to 11% infection rate.

[DoughtyOne]

d":^)

__________________

TRUMP - PENCE
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.....2020.....2020...... __________________
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[DoughtyOne]

d":^)

[DoughtyOne]

I think our CDC and NIH are too quick to blame China.

Didn’t you know by the end of January that there was a
problem brewing? If you were in a place charged with
controlling diseases threatening our nation, would you
have needed to know more than you did, to start getting
prepared?

The CDC was somewhere lost in space beyond Pluto
on this one.

This is what I commonly refer to as the fourteen
year old child’s level of excuses. “But mom, all
the other parents let their kids do it.”

The CDC, “We just didn’t know...”

It was the singular charge of their agency. The
agency’s name says it all.

Yeah China lied. Probably less than 30% of our
citizens don’t know that Communist nations lie.

The CDC should have had all hands on deck, medical
supplies in place, and testing geared up to run
massive testing mid February.

They should always be prepared for a pandemic.

I’ve been saying people should be prosecuted at
the CDC. This is gross negligence and put our
entire populace in life threatening jeopardy.

[DoughtyOne]

I would encourage you guys to check out my link to a
spread sheet that provides this information for each
state and the top 200 infected counties.

States plus the District of Columbia are broken out
alphabetically, and by declining numbers. You can
locate your state alphabetically, and then it will
tell you it’s ranking number, so you can find it
in the numerical sort.

Five territories are in the mix on the numeric listing.

They same dynamic is present for the counties.

Here. If you have Excel, check this out.

http://www.hotr.us/drop/statesco.xlsx

[DoughtyOne]

Than you.