Posted on 03/23/2020 12:34:37 AM PDT by Vendome
“One hundred years after the lethal 1918 flu we are still vulnerable,” warned Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), at a Smithsonian seminar on the 1918 pandemic. “Without a universal vaccine, a single virus would result in a world catastrophe.”
Could a 1918 scenario could repeat itself?
“It’s clear that we have a much greater capacity to respond, and we would expect to respond more effectively to a 1918-like virus, but we could have [a strain] more transmissible and more severe,” Daniel Sosin, the CDC’s deputy director for preparedness said at a recent Council on Foreign Relations forum.
One of the scant protections against another pandemic is the global reporting system that tracks emerging strains. If a 1918-like flu were to present itself, the system would, at least, alert the rest of the world to its deadly potential.
(Excerpt) Read more at abqjournal.com ...
WTF gives here in this year?
Are we going to do this every time a new strain rears up?
FK Dat. The cure is worse than the disease...
This just seem irresponsible.
What are folks supposed to do with this, other than faint?
Hey Great Movie :)
I thought I was the only person on the planet who knew about it :)
I just saw “Last Blood” for 2 bucks.
He kills a zillion mexican sex traffickers so of course it was called racist and hateful and a million other things.
It was good for 2 bucks.
Whether people like to believe it or not...their local healthcare system is built for X-amount of ‘business’ (I know people hate to relate it in that fashion, but that’s what it is).
So if you had 75 people show up this week, recommended by their doctors because of asthma or serious lung issues, and they have the virus (frail in health added). Your local hospital can handle that. A week later, 300 people show up....same situation, and they move a few people into the hallways.
But by the 4th week, your hospital has hit maximum capability. As you figure other regional hospitals are still possible....wrong, they hit maximum capacity as well.
This is precisely what happened in Italy, and between the lack of beds, ventilators and limited support staff....the death rate escalated.
Those people who have never smoked....still under the age of 60....have no connection to diabetes, asthma, or blood pressure medication...don’t have much to worry about. You can do a 5-to-7 day bout at home and it’s not a big deal. The other folks....are the ones on the risk list.
I don’t understand your post...
Last year 900,000 were hospitalized from the flu WHY were our hospitals not on overload??? Just Askin!!!
Good explanation.
Just want to add: Some people without other health conditions are doing poorly with COVID19, too.
If you use the CDC data (I’m suggesting they are more truthful than the Chinese guys)...then 2019 (1 Oct 2019 to mid-March 2020) say roughly 38 to 54 million people who had the actual flu. Some roughed it out and never saw a doctor. Somewhere (according to the CDC)...around 17 to 25 million went to a doctor.
Out of that group...somewhere between 390k and 710k required hospitalization. No one says the frail nature of the folks, their ages, secondary issues (asthma, diabetes, etc). Go divide this over 50 states, with urban areas getting more and rural areas getting less. Your hospital supported this, because they came in various ‘waves’. Maybe a rural unit only had to accept forty people a week, and discharged most after 5 to 7 days.
The death count (by the CDC) is between 17k and 25k for plain regular flu. I would imagine if you drilled down into the data...more than two-thirds of them were over the age of 65, and the bulk of them had some secondary issue (maybe even a heavy smoker, or serious alcoholism over the years).
The trick here, if you figure this as a ‘business’...as you get the person into the hospital, you want them to improve. If they can reach that in seven days or less....great, that bed moves onto the next guy.
This is true...some people don’t fit the typical profile (over 65, secondary conditions).
Example...out of 80 Germans who’ve died from the virus...as of this weekend...ONLY one is under the age of 67 (this young guy said to be 50, non-smoker, no secondary issues, and his profession is musician.
There will be unique cases, or situations where the pneumonia will be too much to withstand.
From the Italy numbers...the bulk of the deaths (something like 90 percent) are people over the age of seventy.
And the hysteria just keeps on comin’!
Look for the Fake News to be hammering this until election time. And then guess who will come in to save the day? That’s right, Democrats! And just like that, the “pandemic” will subside, and all will be right with the world!
The media is playing us like their bit*hes!
In 2017 flu deaths here were 80,000
Death rate math for flu versus Covid is two different animals
Covid is designed to look much worse
Investigate how flu does in Italy
It explains a lot why Covid had fun there
Italy has two unique features: (1) most elderly folks live with their sons/daughters, and the grand-kids. Big building, maybe even both sets of grandparents in the same structure. Kids get sick....pass it on easily to older generation, and it ran in a ‘heated’ fashion. Bulk of all deaths are older generation Italians (something like 90-percent were over the age of 70).
(2) Nursing numbers for hallways in Italy are built on patients requiring minimum amount of care. So if you got tossed into the ward, and there’s 90 people there for four nurses to handle, and 60 of the 90 are ‘bad-off’....don’t go thinking your care is 4-star or even 3-star. Some US hospitals might be in that problem area....some might be better off.
The Italian system as far as I can see...just wasn’t built to handle this degree of care.
German system so far? The infection rate has not hit critical capacity, or delivered massive numbers into the hospitals (yet).
What was the difference? Tamiflu.
It is disappointing to see so many flubros still don’t get it. They, i think, must be finance guys who are using their “finance tools” to understand it. They are used to using their tools to understand situations where literally “anything can happen” and their tools are tuned to spot very sensitive movements in data, it seems. Medical people look at it differently, we know epidemics have an early phase until they hit the exponential phase. We don’t care so much what the numbers are, we just want to identify when that begins. We also know there will be an asymptote and it can be reduced by mitigation efforts. Again they are assuming anything can happen, we know better.
So my guess is the flubros are using the wrong tools and they still can’t see what is happening. Their tools to spot micro movements are making it impossible for them to understand what is happening because it’s inconceivable to them they could be missing something as big as an epidemic. Because they are still assuming “anything” could happen.
The German system includes large-scale testing so that the infected can be identified and isolated.
I am beginning to think that is what we should be doing once more test kits become available.
The headline is misleading. It wasn’t “the flu” as in regular influenza.
The German ‘testing’ revolves around the idea that you will call your doctor....he’ll ask five to seven questions and you need to answer half of them satisfactory, and then he tells you to drive up to a test-point in your region (which he will contact and give them your ID). They test you and in 24 hours...they confirm to the doctor, who gives you the ‘slip’ and you stay home for 14 days.
The vast majority of Germans are doing the in-home situation. If you fit into the asthma or secondary conditions profile, you get a bed in a hospital.
I should add...a number of Germans have a mild case of this...never contact the doctor or get tested. The science people always discuss this on German TV and figure one out of four have the extremely mild version of this.
There is a continuing discussion over why fewer Germans die from the infection (down around .4 of those infected, instead of the Italian 4-percent). No one has yet to really suggest a scientific or reasonable explanation.
“Those people who have never smoked....still under the age of 60....have no connection to diabetes, asthma, or blood pressure medication...don’t have much to worry about”
Please stop posting BS.
“But by the 4th week, your hospital has hit maximum capability. As you figure other regional hospitals are still possible....wrong, they hit maximum capacity as well.”
In 2009, the H1N1 hospitalized 300,000 patients and no one even noticed. I didn’t and I work in a hospital.
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