Posted on 03/17/2020 8:23:15 AM PDT by central_va
We are only just beginning to see what the economic fallout from coronavirus will be.
And Wall Street economists are now throwing out some brutal forecasts for what economic data in the quarters ahead might hold.
“We now guesstimate that second quarter GDP will drop at a 10% annualized rate, after a 2% fall in Q1,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note to clients on Monday night.
The gnarliest figures in Shepherdson’s forecast come from where he sees consumer spending heading during the next few months.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
Economists never agree on anything.
Followed by, as Trump stated, huge pent-up demand.
Long term this will break our dependence on the Chinese supply chain, which is a good thing.
Yahoo - read no further.
Yahoo!! BARF!!
15% decline at least. This is going to be a major depression folks, with upwards of 30 million unemployed. Hoover will finally catch a break, as Trump becomes synonymous with the ultimate economic collapse. Amazingly, many here supported these suicidal measures over a strong cold. Enjoy the soup lines and starving elderly.
The pent up demand may not start until the WHO declares the pandemic over. And no way they will do that before the US Presidential election.
It will definitely be bad, but the question is, how bad, and how fast will the recovery be?
That is when the leadership is tested. Hopefully it will be faster than the slowest recovery in history - the Obama recovery.
One reason I don’t really blame the democrats for this thing is that the timing doesn’t really help them. I think they are simply being opportunistic.
Oh, and doomers and gloomers sputter suffering succotash while looking for another source to use to mongor their fears onto the populace.
I caught a cold and lost my retirement, savings, job and my home. But I feel good now.
Pent up demand is useless with no in income to pay for what is demanded.
Yup. The Chinese will suffer an economic catastrophe over this.
I just started taking SS this year (Turned 66). I’m a contractor in IT and will continue to work as long as I can. I was going to quit sometime in the next few months. Fortunately, we were saving all the double income to pay off the mortgage.
I think that is highly possible.
This could be the biggest crash and subsequent recovery in history.
But this is all uncharted territory. We’ll see.
Except for rice, pasta, and beans.
Have they ever had a correct forecast?
That could be the tip of the iceberg. Credit will freeze up. House prices will collapse. House inventory will soar. Businesses won't be able to access credit lines (already happening). This has the potential to be a multi-year global depression. I honestly don't think a quick rebound is even possible.
“15% decline at least. This is going to be a major depression folks, with upwards of 30 million unemployed.”
Ok....
Do people on FR always have to ramp everything to such a retarded extreme?
Violent price divergences are developing between physical precious metals and futures prices for the big four: gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. Rapidly rising initial and maintenance margins on precious metals futures contracts into a collapsing global stock markets have undoubtedly caused forced selling of precious metals futures contracts. In addition, margin calls in both futures and stock markets have exacerbated further selling in PM paper derivatives markets outside of that already caused by CME raised margins. If one only listened to mass media financial journalists, one would believe that precious metal prices were collapsing. However, a fact hidden by mass media financial journalists is that a violent divergence between real physical precious metal prices and future contract prices is materializing right now, with even current year precious metal coins demanding ridiculous premiums of 25%, 38% and 100%, and later dated precious metal coins demanding even additional premiums over the ones just mentioned. This morning in Asia, when paper silver traded at $12.70, the cheapest price for any lot, smaller than 20 pieces, of current year 1-ounce Silver American Eagles was listed at Apmex at $24.91 per coin, basically a doubling of the paper price. While I realize that Apmex tends to gravitate to the higher end of prices for PM bullion coins, ever site I checked in multiple nations maintained outrageous premiums for physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium coins over their respective spot prices – well outrageous, if you believe paper prices established by bankers are real, as so many comments I have encountered over the past 48-hours seem to indicate. But if you hold physical, you are still golden as far as being positioned for the rest of this year. If bankers smash precious metal prices in futures markets, but it's impossible to buy precious metal coins at any price remotely close to the spot prices established in banker-controlled derivative markets, are the latter prices even real?
It's time for every human being on planet Earth tired of these massive, unnatural price divergences that happen in the real physical world and in the paper derivatives banking world to become his or her own bank by selling fiat currencies for physical precious metals. If every person did this, we could break the racket together. Click on the image below to learn more about the current explosive divergence in prices of precious metals happening right now.
Old farts always exaggerate things.
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