You heard it here first. I give it a maximum of two weeks before businesses start to reopen on their own even if the “forced closure” order in their state is still in force.
We shall see. The global deaths are about 1,000 per day and doubling every 4 days. At a bit shy of 7,000 yesterday it should be 14,000 in 4 days, 28,000 in 8 days. If some 20-40% of the globe population never gets it (for genetic reasons or otherwise) and only some 20% get it here in the US we should only get 40-60 Million catch it and if only 10% of them are seriously ill needing a hospital bed we need 4-6 million excess hospital beds in the next month or two. If only 1 % of the 4-6 million seriously ill die we may only be looking at some 40,000 to 60,000 excess deaths. If the death rate starts to level off in two weeks and we only have 10,000 to 20,000 dead we can probably do this. In a month the 20% that were most genetically likely to become infected will probably have had it. We likely can start to emerge from hiding in two weeks and start the recovery phase. Just rough numbers and estimates but I do think this is likely how it’s going to play out.
I agree with that. I told my wife yesterday I expect 2-3 weeks and young people will start hitting the streets again unless there is a huge uptick in confirmed cases and deaths or they call out the National Guard to stop them.
That is already happening. There was an article yesterday about Kid Rock’s business partner openly refusing to close their restaurant in Nashville. I don’t doubt others will likewise refuse to commit economic seppuku just because the local mayor ordered them to. We might see very soon whether local governments are willing to carry out threats to arrest defiant restaurateurs, as NYPD made.
It will be interesting to see what happens. I suspect at least some local governments, and possibly even some state governors, are acting under dubious legal authority. While states have broad police powers, those powers belong to the legislature, not the governor or local governments. For example, here in Houston, the county government just ordered all bars and restaurants to close except for take out. But the only statutory authority I can find for such a measure belongs to the state health commission, not county or city governments.
Also, I expect a flood of inverse condemnation suits against state and local governments by restaurant owners, asserting that these forced closures constitute a regulatory taking and seeking compensation under the Fifth Amendment and it’s counterpart in state constitutions. I’m not sure they will be successful, because temporary emergency measures are not normally considered takings, but I do expect them to try.
Or the stronger the government response will be. San Fran is already threatening to jail and fine people who are out in public for “non-essential” reasons.
I am worried it will be police first, then the national Guard, then the active military.
Herd mentality and fear is crazy strong over this weak virus. I am taking nothing for granted and mentally preparing for the worst.