Trying to equate past DOW performance with what is going on today is just about the most incoherent and disingenuous thing imaginable.
The circumstances behind this market sell off have nothing in common with those of the past and so the reversal will be based on different factors as well. The major reason for the sell off is the Virus and it’s expected hit on GDP. The markets look 6-9 months down the road in the pricing of equities, etc and right now they are seeing a slowing of the economy both here and around the world due to the Virus and not a change in the fundamentals.
What do you suppose would happen if an announcement was made today or tomorrow that an effective vaccine was found and will be available in 30 days? My guess is the markets immediately jump close to 3000 points within a day. I am using this as an example and not a prediction of a vaccine announcement.
I have been thru many market selloffs starting with the early 70’s and while they all are painful to experience those with patience and who take the long view will be fine. The panic prone investors will as usual get clobbered.
A couple of contrary indicators to note.
http://www.cboe.com/vix
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Reading this, that old expression that opinions are like a*******, everybody has one, comes to mind. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, albeit unsupported by any fact in the known universe. Briefly, all the scenarios you mentioned have already been, as they always have, factored into the markets by legions of investors conducting their own price discovery of the market. And two, yes there has been market manipulation by both political and economic forces, domestic and international, and these too have been factored into the market. Your opinion is both simplistic and incorrect.
The thing to do is to take advantage of this opportunity to reposition. We all have some pigs we want to be rid of.
I’ve become much less of a believer in a balanced portfolio than I am of a quality one. It seems in recent years that all boats ride the same tide. Broad diversification is just not holding up that well. I have one of those and it pretty much tracks the S&P so what is the point of doing anything but an S&P ETF and another portion in an equally good qualified dividend ETF? Instead of hammering around with a bucket full of this and that most of which just wanders around?
The flight to quality happens every time one of these events takes place but the reason is a good one for some. The opportunity to make the move with little tax consequence instead of riding the bad horse you were unwilling to pay to give up is present.