Posted on 03/10/2020 2:44:38 AM PDT by buckalfa
In an effort to stop the spread of the coronavirus, Ohio State is suspending all in-person classes through at least March 30, instead moving to virtual instruction, according to a university-wide email from Ohio State President Michael Drake.
Ohio State also announced a hiatus on the scheduling of "new, non-essential events" through April 20, and is encouraging event organizers for scheduled non-essential events between now and then "to immediately evaluate whether these events should continue in person." The Buckeyes' spring game is currently slated for April 11.
Students, currently on spring break, will be permitted to work from their current place of residence or return to campus "where appropriate social distancing and enhanced preventative public health and hygiene measures will be actively encouraged."
The news follows the first cases of the coronavirus in the state of Ohio, where three people tested positive for the virus in Cuyahoga County.
"While there are no campus-associated cases of COVID-19, we know that there are at least three confirmed cases in the state of Ohio, and we expect that there will be more," Ohio State President Michael Drake said in the email. "We are being proactive in an effort to prevent illness and continue the important work of the university. I understand that our policy guidelines will cause measurable disruption, but the risk of not acting outweighs the inconvenience of these temporary measures."
Ohio State plans to evaluate other classroom experiences such as laboratory and performance classes. The university plans to have more specific guidance on that front later this week.
More likely the result of cover-yer-butt lawyering.
Flu: Cases up again in Ohio and Kentucky, with more tough weeks to come
I am in Vietnam. A nation with SOLID support of public education.
Vietnam, has had its entire public education system shut down, for this entire situation.
Just saying.
COVID-19 Update As of 03/09/2020 23:53 PST
These numbers include Mainland China and All Others globally
This format allows you to see trends. I'll continue to use it.
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/03 93,160 3,198 50,690 53,888 39,272
03/04 95,425 3,286 53,399 56,685 38,740
03/05 98,387 3,383 55,441 58,824 39,563
03/06 102,188 3,491 57,389 60,880 41,308
03/07 106,165 3,977 59,965 63,559 42,606
03/08 110,041 3,825 62,000 65,825 44,216
03/09 114,452 4,026 64,169 68,195 46,257
It's not that easy to spot the changes in daily growth.03/03: 2,223 03/04: 2,265 03/05: 2,962 03/06: 3,801 03/07: 3,977 03/08: 3,876 03/09: 4,411That's a rather pronounced growth rate. These are just the declared cases
The last column there shows the numbers of active cases. You will note how
they were dropping, then started increasing again. Here are the last five days
drop & then growth numbers.
03/03: -494 03/04: -532 03/05: 823 03/06: 1,745 03/07: 1,298 03/08: 1,610 03/09: 2,041Resolved cases are still helping to soften the massive numbers of new cases
We have hot spots around the world, and instead of one or two of them, we now
have upwards of seven far above, or moving above the 1,000 case level in the
next day or two.
It has been my take that once you go above a few hundred you were close to out
of control. Some nations seem to have found a way to stop the growth, but you
have to wonder if they actually did, or are holding back on reporting.
I will touch on break out nations again lower in this report.
As predicted, the mortality rate that went as low as 5.65% on the 27th, has now
begun to climb again. As of 03/09 it is running at 5.90%. It grew 0.09% on
the 9th, and 0.16% on the day before that.
We are still running a very large report of new cases per day. So far new cases
present new deaths, and a track toward recovery for most folks. Unfortunately
when it comes to the mortality rate, the deaths are report first, by weeks.
COVID-19 cases outside China now make up 61.72% of global active cases.
That means there are still 38.28% of active cases in Mainland China. Of
course we don't know how truthful that is, because we have never been
convinced that China has been reporting out valid numbers. As stats come
in from case results outside China it will become more clear how accurate
China's reporting has been.
Some folks ask why I bother to report out Mainland China numbers. I do so
because it's all we have. We all know the reporting issues. I put this out
there and I think others can determine for themselves how much credence to
to attribute to them.
The numbers and percentages of resolved cases has continued to hold up pretty
well. On 03/07 at 18:03 PST the percentage peaked at 59.918% of all documented
cases having been resolved. As of the EOD 03/09, that percentage remained at
59.584%. That's actually pretty good considering the volume of new cases that
are now being reported.
These numbers address the cases outside of Mainland China.
I will provide the same format for the numbers outside Mainland China.
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remaining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/03 12,890 217 837 1,054 11,836
03/04 15,015 279 1,222 1,501 13,514
03/05 17,832 341 1,685 2,026 15,806
03/06 21,537 421 1,986 2,407 19,130
03/07 25,470 497 2,871 3,368 22,102
03/08 29,285 706 3,389 4,095 25,190
03/09 33,696 890 4,258 5,148 28,548
Lets talk about the United States again. I addressed the issue of the In the United States we now stand at 754 cases. Another day above 33.00%, and
we'll be at 1,000 cases and growing. Of course the U.S. is one of the larger
nations. We have a potential for big numbers compared to nations with less
populace, so the media can play on that.
Right now we are ranked 7th outside China. I expect to see us crawl up that
ranking list. The other nation's numbers are also growing, so we'll see.
The current mortality rate of deceased / deceased + recovered remains too high to
take much meaning from. I've seen 14-18% figures, but those are not even in
the same ball park as what the final rate will be.
You can still review them if you access my database.
There are now 115 nations declaring cases within their borders. 1+
Tonigh we'll take a look at seven nations outside China. These seven account
for over 84% of the global numbers outside China. Here they are.
9,172 27.22% Italy
7,513 22.30% South Korea
7,161 21.25% Iran
1,412 04.19% Franc
1,231 03.65% Spain
1,224 03.63% Germany
0,754 02.24% the USA
84.48% of all cases outside of China...
These are clearly seven nations worthy of watching.
I have a new section that addresses only the cases in the United States.
I have a new metric that explains how many people there are to one case in
each of these entities: Globally, Mainland China, Outside China, and inside
the United States. There is one person in every so many people in each of
these entities.
Globally : 167,975 Mainland China: 78,265 Outside China : 272,173 The U. S. A. : 459,527One thing that bothers me about the reporting by Johns Hopkins University
We had those large losses from that one nursing home, and that has skewed
the mortality rate to something in the range of 70%. Over the long hawl that
isn't going to hold up, so it's nothing more than a curiosity at the moment.
No nation is seeing anything like that.
It's just unfortunate how that turned out there for the inhabitants.
Even the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship where everyone was figured to be
next to death, out of 696 cases, so far only 6 have died. That and other
numbers out there outside of China, make it clear this is not a mass killer.
People will die like they do whenever the flu comes along. Sad but true.
All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK
I have been downloading three to five reports per day since 01/27. I have then
worked up numbers that should give a very good representation of numbers that
have been provided to the public via that site.
In my spreadsheet linked below, you'll find global numbers including China. You
will find a separate section addressing just the Outside China figures. Then
there is now also a section with just the United States stats in there. There
are also a lot of special stats broken out for you to browse. The history of
115 nations and their numbers from day one of their reporting.
You're welcome to it.
COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data
I now have an XLS file again, but it is for viewing only. I had to do a wrap-
around to get it to fit in the XLS file format. On the top right you will see
nations 1-70 listed. I cut and pasted nations 71-115 under them. You'll
see what I mean.
Hysterical Republican Governor Mike DeWine replaced hysterical Republican Governor John Kasich. Nothing changes. Grandstanding showboats.
40,000 coeds suddenly freed from the obligation of in person class attendance at the same time as airfare and cruise rates are at rock bottom prices? What could go wrong?
Once these US colleges take these steps, a lot of people are going to question the current operating model - and wonder why we are paying so much for brick & mortar institutions, live instructors for every moment of education, etc. - could be a good thing.
As a former Excel jockey, I appreciate your work and analysis!
The news follows the first cases of the coronavirus in the state of Ohio, where three people tested positive for the virus in Cuyahoga County.
“While there are no campus-associated cases of COVID-19, we know that there are at least three confirmed cases in the state of Ohio
Also
3 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Ohio; DeWine declares State of Emergency
https://www.10tv.com/article/3-confirmed-cases-coronavirus-ohio-dewine-declares-state-emergency-2020-mar
Ohio State canceling in-person classes until March 30 over coronavirus concerns
https://www.10tv.com/article/ohio-state-canceling-person-classes-until-march-30-over-coronavirus-concerns-2020-mar
Clearly you’re vested in the hype...bordering on obsessed.
Step back a moment and think about the fact that the base reservoir on these numbers is 6 billion. You’re obsessing with spreadsheets that show fluctuations in the hundreds.
Go take a walk and a deep breath. The hype on this is going to be way more destructive then the virus and you’re a hype contributor. I just watched an interview by a 67 year old man who just overcame corona. He had a 10 hour fever and a dry cough.
40,000 coeds suddenly freed from the obligation of in person class attendance at the same time as airfare and cruise rates are at rock bottom prices? What could go wrong?
_____
According to the website below Ohio State University is the 3rd largest university in the nation.
2018-2019 enrollment
61,170
List of United States public university campuses by enrollment
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_public_university_campuses_by_enrollment
Marxist institutions will do their part to incite panic and flip the election.
Why not shut down the dorms? Because they would have to give the students a refund on room and board. So keep ‘em open, comrades.
LOL! Spring Break came early. Next major outbreak, I predict, South Beach Miami!
Many thanks for your analysis!!
Prayers UP!
The poster put a lot of work into those worksheets.
Your response is, frankly a bit embarrassing. Mindless, even.
Lay off.
So a lot of effort put into a project protects one from criticism? That’s some strange logic you’re employing.
I think that’s why a lot of businesses aren’t allowing work from home. They’d lose control.
Some of the posts “advocating” against some things on this board, seem less concerned with presenting a point of view (which I enthusiastically support by the way) and seem more to be mindlessly criticising, without presenting one’s own view.
Just saying, I think we can all do better.
Maybe I am also doing that right now. If so, I apologize.
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