COVID-19 Update As of 03/09/2020 23:53 PST
These numbers include Mainland China and All Others globally
This format allows you to see trends. I'll continue to use it.
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/03 93,160 3,198 50,690 53,888 39,272
03/04 95,425 3,286 53,399 56,685 38,740
03/05 98,387 3,383 55,441 58,824 39,563
03/06 102,188 3,491 57,389 60,880 41,308
03/07 106,165 3,977 59,965 63,559 42,606
03/08 110,041 3,825 62,000 65,825 44,216
03/09 114,452 4,026 64,169 68,195 46,257
It's not that easy to spot the changes in daily growth.03/03: 2,223 03/04: 2,265 03/05: 2,962 03/06: 3,801 03/07: 3,977 03/08: 3,876 03/09: 4,411That's a rather pronounced growth rate. These are just the declared cases
The last column there shows the numbers of active cases. You will note how
they were dropping, then started increasing again. Here are the last five days
drop & then growth numbers.
03/03: -494 03/04: -532 03/05: 823 03/06: 1,745 03/07: 1,298 03/08: 1,610 03/09: 2,041Resolved cases are still helping to soften the massive numbers of new cases
We have hot spots around the world, and instead of one or two of them, we now
have upwards of seven far above, or moving above the 1,000 case level in the
next day or two.
It has been my take that once you go above a few hundred you were close to out
of control. Some nations seem to have found a way to stop the growth, but you
have to wonder if they actually did, or are holding back on reporting.
I will touch on break out nations again lower in this report.
As predicted, the mortality rate that went as low as 5.65% on the 27th, has now
begun to climb again. As of 03/09 it is running at 5.90%. It grew 0.09% on
the 9th, and 0.16% on the day before that.
We are still running a very large report of new cases per day. So far new cases
present new deaths, and a track toward recovery for most folks. Unfortunately
when it comes to the mortality rate, the deaths are report first, by weeks.
COVID-19 cases outside China now make up 61.72% of global active cases.
That means there are still 38.28% of active cases in Mainland China. Of
course we don't know how truthful that is, because we have never been
convinced that China has been reporting out valid numbers. As stats come
in from case results outside China it will become more clear how accurate
China's reporting has been.
Some folks ask why I bother to report out Mainland China numbers. I do so
because it's all we have. We all know the reporting issues. I put this out
there and I think others can determine for themselves how much credence to
to attribute to them.
The numbers and percentages of resolved cases has continued to hold up pretty
well. On 03/07 at 18:03 PST the percentage peaked at 59.918% of all documented
cases having been resolved. As of the EOD 03/09, that percentage remained at
59.584%. That's actually pretty good considering the volume of new cases that
are now being reported.
These numbers address the cases outside of Mainland China.
I will provide the same format for the numbers outside Mainland China.
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remaining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/03 12,890 217 837 1,054 11,836
03/04 15,015 279 1,222 1,501 13,514
03/05 17,832 341 1,685 2,026 15,806
03/06 21,537 421 1,986 2,407 19,130
03/07 25,470 497 2,871 3,368 22,102
03/08 29,285 706 3,389 4,095 25,190
03/09 33,696 890 4,258 5,148 28,548
Lets talk about the United States again. I addressed the issue of the In the United States we now stand at 754 cases. Another day above 33.00%, and
we'll be at 1,000 cases and growing. Of course the U.S. is one of the larger
nations. We have a potential for big numbers compared to nations with less
populace, so the media can play on that.
Right now we are ranked 7th outside China. I expect to see us crawl up that
ranking list. The other nation's numbers are also growing, so we'll see.
The current mortality rate of deceased / deceased + recovered remains too high to
take much meaning from. I've seen 14-18% figures, but those are not even in
the same ball park as what the final rate will be.
You can still review them if you access my database.
There are now 115 nations declaring cases within their borders. 1+
Tonigh we'll take a look at seven nations outside China. These seven account
for over 84% of the global numbers outside China. Here they are.
9,172 27.22% Italy
7,513 22.30% South Korea
7,161 21.25% Iran
1,412 04.19% Franc
1,231 03.65% Spain
1,224 03.63% Germany
0,754 02.24% the USA
84.48% of all cases outside of China...
These are clearly seven nations worthy of watching.
I have a new section that addresses only the cases in the United States.
I have a new metric that explains how many people there are to one case in
each of these entities: Globally, Mainland China, Outside China, and inside
the United States. There is one person in every so many people in each of
these entities.
Globally : 167,975 Mainland China: 78,265 Outside China : 272,173 The U. S. A. : 459,527One thing that bothers me about the reporting by Johns Hopkins University
We had those large losses from that one nursing home, and that has skewed
the mortality rate to something in the range of 70%. Over the long hawl that
isn't going to hold up, so it's nothing more than a curiosity at the moment.
No nation is seeing anything like that.
It's just unfortunate how that turned out there for the inhabitants.
Even the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship where everyone was figured to be
next to death, out of 696 cases, so far only 6 have died. That and other
numbers out there outside of China, make it clear this is not a mass killer.
People will die like they do whenever the flu comes along. Sad but true.
All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK
I have been downloading three to five reports per day since 01/27. I have then
worked up numbers that should give a very good representation of numbers that
have been provided to the public via that site.
In my spreadsheet linked below, you'll find global numbers including China. You
will find a separate section addressing just the Outside China figures. Then
there is now also a section with just the United States stats in there. There
are also a lot of special stats broken out for you to browse. The history of
115 nations and their numbers from day one of their reporting.
You're welcome to it.
COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data
I now have an XLS file again, but it is for viewing only. I had to do a wrap-
around to get it to fit in the XLS file format. On the top right you will see
nations 1-70 listed. I cut and pasted nations 71-115 under them. You'll
see what I mean.
As a former Excel jockey, I appreciate your work and analysis!
Clearly you’re vested in the hype...bordering on obsessed.
Step back a moment and think about the fact that the base reservoir on these numbers is 6 billion. You’re obsessing with spreadsheets that show fluctuations in the hundreds.
Go take a walk and a deep breath. The hype on this is going to be way more destructive then the virus and you’re a hype contributor. I just watched an interview by a 67 year old man who just overcame corona. He had a 10 hour fever and a dry cough.
Many thanks for your analysis!!
Prayers UP!
“We had those large losses from that one nursing home, and that has skewed the mortality rate...”
Just happened to catch the DC mayor’s press conference yesterday. She and health officials discussed 2 confirmed cases there. When asked, they refused to give details of each case (age of patients, how they may have contracted COVID, etc.). If the deaths tend to be in the elderly population, or people with serious pre-existing health conditions, this would be relevant information to get out to the public. Instead, public health officials speak in generalities, give no real data except numbers, but then “recommend” to people what they “must” do to protect themselves. There is a disconnect here, and it seems to be feeding the major media high technology societal panic.
I also notice that reporting on the possible origins and about China have disappeared from general US news. Also, knocked bigmouth Schumer’s threats against the judiciary off the front page. Watch out on COVID because like 911 (e.g. FISA) and the 2008 financial crisis (e.g. Dodd Frank), the federal government (Congress) could make an attempt to expand their power to enact national public safety laws and take away some more of our freedom. If anything, they should put tighter control on non-citizens and immigration... which they will not.
Determining actual risk is extremely important.
We had those large losses from that one nursing home, and that has skewed the mortality rate to something in the range of 70%. Over the long hawl that isn't going to hold up, so it's nothing more than a curiosity at the moment. No nation is seeing anything like that.
It's just unfortunate how that turned out there for the inhabitants.
Even the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship where everyone was figured to be next to death, out of 696 cases, so far only 6 have died. That and other numbers out there outside of China, make it clear this is not a mass killer. People will die like they do whenever the flu comes along. Sad but true.
...make it clear this is not a mass killer.
Let's pray that continues to be the worst case! Something is very odd with the large variation of CFR numbers when looked at by locale. I've read there are now two different strains of the virus, but not much is said about which which strain is being reported. It would be helpful if John Hopkins or CDC include an identifier for strain in their database.
You're awesome with a spreadsheet! So, how's your charting skills? :)