Coronavirus: Japan to close all schools to halt spread

BBC ^ | Feb 27, 2020 | BBC

[Fury]

Hahaha!

[voicereason]

I seem to be missing something here. I understand that this flu is extremely contagious. But, the statistics seem to say it’s the flu. It’s not the plague, it’s not inoperable cancer, it’s the flu.

Just my $0.0002 worth, but the issue that no one really discusses is the potential stress of the medical care system. Start flooding every emergency room and doctor's office with "flu" symptons, and resources are consumed that should have potentially been used in other areas and on more critical patients.

So the real danger is letting it get out-of-hand, and overwhelming everything else. There were reports that doctors in China had been at work for days. How effective does a medical professional become after 20+ hours at a time. Not too mention eventually running out of the simple things such as clean towels, sheets, "face masks", etc.

[Wayne07]

Even if you don't know the exact CFR, you have medical professionals making their best estimation. You know some cases are unreported, and factor that in. But set aside the exact number, which even the WHO which is CHina's pocket and his been downplaying this, says is around 2%. Look instead how China has been reacting. Are they acting like there is a low CFR? Are the acting like it is just a flu? Their GDP is going to drop ~25% in Q1, and they locked down a city of 12 million for a month. Businesses are desperately shifting their supply chain out of China. Why would China be self destructing if the consequences of not doing it weren't worse?

The magical thinking is seeing that it is bad in China, bad in Iran, bad in Italy, bad in Korea, but somehow America won't be affected.

[DouglasKC]

Answer me this: Why are all affected governments across the board taking draconian measures to contain this? Mass quarantines etc. Your opinion.

[caww]

....”The its just flu crowd is suffering from a mental coping mechanism their minds cannot and will not accept that mortal danger is present”.....

I disagree....everyone understands this virus is new and can be deadly. What do you expect people to do other than protect themselves as they would for any virus? Further health care facilities as well as their governments and health of their populations vary from country to country. We have the very best possible.

Hyping this up accomplishes absolutely nothing.

[lepton]

The statistics do not at all say it is the typical flu. While the correct denominator is uncertain, and the math is complicated by the infected dying faster than they recover, A lot of reports are using the completely wrong denominator

While not the overwhelming tide of death that some hysterics have attached to it, where the healthcare system has not collapsed, and where ICUs are available, it appears to be still at least 20 times as lethal as the flu.

[LouAvul]

It was never a good idea to enrich a country with which we would likely go to war someday.

[Grampa Dave]

Time to buy stocks in ONLINE Digital learning companies :)

Thanks, you saved me the time and effort of posting this reality.

If the US and our good allies close our worthless public schools and go to online learning, we will be winners.

Does anyone really miss shopping in a mall, when you can go on line and get what you wanted/needed with no hassle.

[Grampa Dave]

People keep forgetting that President Trump has really opened up future trade relations with India.

When India gets going, we will not need the ChiComs.

[null and void]

It’s not the plague, it’s not inoperable cancer, it’s the flu.

The current mortality rate for those who have been through the entire disease process is 100*(deaths/(deaths+recovered))

Plugging the JHU CSSE numbers from 7:13 this morning into the formula, 100*(2810/(2810+33252)=7.8%. That's a bit higher than the typical 0.1% for an ordinary seasonal flu.

Granted that's based on the thin data available, and doesn't count anyone who is out there shedding virus while asymptomatic (not a factor in ordinary flu) or only mildly ill. OTOH, the mildly ill probably are underrepresented in the seasonal flu stats as well.

[null and void]

That’s like a Chicagoan saying all this fuss for a barn fire? (Although it is too bad about Mrs. O’Leary’s cow, poor thing)

[lepton]

Your math is bad. Wrong denominator.

Using your methodology, consider a poison, which is 100% lethal in a week, beginning with 100 injected the first day, 200, the second day, 400 the third, continue doubling the new cases to 800, 1600, 3200, and 6400 the 4th through 7th days.

So at the end of the 7th day, you have 100 dead and 12,700 injected. Using your method, you have a calculated fatality rate of 0.78%,

[dfwgator]

So long Olympics.

[mewzilla]

This is likely really about saving the Olympics.

[SheepWhisperer]

With Japan closing all schools at 207 confirmed cases, we are maybe seeing an indicator of when schools might close in the US.

I’m guessing this might happen when we reach 400 cases across the nation.

[null and void]

All this "flu" talk is just to stop people from panicking.

I don't want people to panic. I want people to prepare.

Saying 'It's just the flu' doesn't motivate people to buy a couple more cans of beans

[lepton]

There are hundreds of cold virus strains, so a vaccine would generally be useless.

[Black Agnes]

The whole POINT of the ‘hate america globalists’ was to enrich a country we would likely go to war with someday.

That WAS the point.

[tatown]

Interpreting the actions of any government, some of which are totalitarian regimes, tells us absolutely nothing about the scientific facts I’m talking about. Spewing a +2% mortality rate as FACT is simply idiotic without a scientific serosurvey backing that statement up. Period.

[I want the USA back]

Japan has a high population density. People crowd into the subway ever day. An outbreak would force the closing of the subways, and lead to economic ruin.