Posted on 02/24/2020 9:30:54 PM PST by Helicondelta
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) won Saturday's Nevada caucuses decisively, after winning the New Hampshire primary and essentially tying former Mayor Pete Buttigieg for first in Iowa. So Sanders is the Democratic frontrunner, and he also leads nationally in a new CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday, drawing the support of 28 percent of Democratic primary voters.
But Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) jumped to second place in the poll, at 19 percent followed by former Vice President Joe Biden (17 percent), former Mayor Mike Bloomberg (13 percent), and Buttigieg (10 percent).
Warren came in fourth place in the Nevada caucuses, but a large majority of Nevada Democrats cast their early ballots before Wednesday night's Democratic presidential debate, and half the respondents in the CBS poll — taken Feb. 20-22, between the debate and the caucuses — were most impressed with Warren's performance.
(Excerpt) Read more at theweek.com ...
I agree. Bernie with 40 percent. Then the elites try to steal it at the convention.
[YouGov ranks first in polling accuracy.]
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
“My prediction is he will have somewhere between 40 and 45% of the delegates by convention time”
If this happens he will probably have to choose an establishment VP to get the support of the super delegates.
But he’ll likely go over 50%. He’ll keep winning primaries and the turnout for the other candidates will go down.
I think he has a very good chance. Since 1952, (other than 1968 when LJB withdrew after Iowa and New Hampshire), I don’t see a nominee of either party who didn’t come in at least 1st or 2nd in either Iowa or New Hampshire. And there is a legacy of whoever came in 2nd last nominating cycle to get it now-e.g. Hillary Clinton, McCain cuz organizations in place so that would be Sanders
e.g. Reagan came in 2nd to Bush in 1980 in Iowa but won New Hampshire . In Iowa, 1992 with an Iowa Dem Senator running, and sex scandals breaking Bill Clinton finished 3rd or 4th if you count uncommitted, but finished 2nd in New Hampshire. McCain came in a close 4th in Iowa in 2008 and won New Hampshire , these are the poorest finishers I have found and note they each came in either 1st or 2nd in one of the two. So if this holds its probably Sanders.
Blomberg introduces something new and that is $1 billion but after his bad debate performance it will cost him another $400 million. Biden might defy history because the country has higher % “people of color” in other states but I don’t think so.
[Man, if he comes in with 40-45% of the delegates and everyone else is <25%, it’ll be HELL to pay from Bernie’s fans if the party tries to screw him out of it. ]
Re Elizabeth Warren “rising” to second place in the Democrat presidential polls.
Does this mean that she has a yeast infection?
Would explain a lot of things about her.
Fifth parties maybe...
Yeah, that is what I’m saying. If the Dems let Bloomie buy the nomination, or if they hand it off to Biden who secured 10% of the delegates, or if they waltz in someone who didn’t even run such as John Kerry, Hillary Clinton et al., the Bernie contingent isn’t just going to roll over and say, “Oh, well, thanks for letting us participate, maybe next time.” They’re energized as hell right now and if Bernie has a plurality, they’re not just going let the Democrat party shove someone else down their throats. Sure, some of ‘em will roll over, but most of ‘em will end up staying home or voting 3rd party.
It does not make any sense at all for any of the remaining Democrats to drop out. Even if they don’t get one delegate for the convention they build name recognition they could not otherwise buy.
If Liawatha is supposed to be the Dem “moderate” alternative to The Commie, then the Dems really are in 1972 McG territory.
No.
They believe that Sanders can break the old guard by beating them in the general and shatter the old Democrat party going foreward, creating a power vacuum which they will sweep into.
Your thinking is entirely short term.
Wow! This calls for some Pow Wow Chow
[No.
They believe that Sanders can break the old guard by beating them in the general and shatter the old Democrat party going foreward, creating a power vacuum which they will sweep into.
Your thinking is entirely short term.]
[[Remember the 1912 Republican convention?]]
Nope- that year was the year i was trying to get into an old folks home- so i couldn’t get to the convention
yes indeed! The DNC and others will prop them up for sure.
And we get to watch it happen!
(* Hillary and Romney are awfully quiet)
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